Entering December 2025, the star of winter, some systemic reasoning is in order.
Starting with known data (that does require a fork-liftable grain of salt).
A -
National Wealth Fund, on Nov. 1
- 220.533 billion Chinese yuan - 28 bio $
- 173 tons of gold 6349312.31 Ounces 26 2/3 bio $
B - tin pu has travelled to
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Also brought other central Asian presidents to muscovy.
C - deficit already at 5.82 trillion rubbles as of Nov. 20
Notes:
trading volumes quoted below have to,at minimum, be halved twice (i.e. divided by 4) as there are two parts to a transaction and one must expect contracts to be covered by futures contracts and other derivatives by EACH party to the transaction
Yuan trading presently @ 7.07 (been strengthening from 7.25 1 year ago)
28 billion
Yuan is trading with reported growth of 56% in 2025 to 817 billion $ / day
Gold trading at 4200 (was 3200 in August... that's a 25% premium)
Gold US $ volumes have spiked from
127 bio / day in 2024 to
171 bio / day in August to
247 bio / day in november
ceteris paribus on rate, that's a 20% volume increase.
(I just shifted thinking in terms of portfolio strategies & market expectations)
So russia
could liquidate all its holdings within a few days, without dampening the market.
However that would generate, at best
55 bio @ 80rubbles / $ =
4.4 trillion rubbles.
@120 rubbles = 6.6 trillion rubbles
With the deficit already at
5.82 trillion on Nov. 20
add to that historically deficit hits an additional 2 trillion rubbles in december (year-end bills to pay)... They cannot cover that.
But, let's get practical:
• who do they sell to?
• what do they get?
• what do they need?
What do they
need? Well, theoretically, to cover the deficit, rubbles (more on that later)
What do they
get? Trading on the markets, they get anything but rubbles, so they would have to convert currency to rubbles?
Again,
who do they trade with for that?
I am rather certain that plenty of banks want to get rid of theirs, but... there are sanctions. I foresee multiple shell companies doing the dirty deed, probably via oligarchs, as songs of dancing windows and waltzing teas play in the background...
So there is an avenue for Yuan, even though they now purchase most of their stuff from China... and it is strengthening... and who says Chinese banks want rubble? They may have to hold onto quite a bit of it...
But
gold? One would have to shift these massive volumes - physically or on paper - to other holding areas (chuckle for a second: some might be held in European Central bank vaults. Anyhoo...)
There are murmurs of Oligarchs buying gold & trading their rubbles in for them. That would make sense as they would **want** to cash out of rascia. But that's a lot of liquidity; it is hard to fathom if it is there... + the oligarchs are also under sanctions and cannot just trade wildly their existing portfolios...
The best outlet would be other central banks. And this is where the Central Asian nations come in. But first, let's work out what happens if the deficit cannot be covered.
What are the options? one of:
1 - drop their war. tin pu is certainly not inclined to do that and... anyway, by now, it's too late: blood - litteral and financial - has been shed.
2 - Default on obligations - some might happen. But they will not want to declare it as such, but - as usual - twist things. It would more come under the guise of option 3...
3 - double currency scheme. Create one currency for all the big industries, based on NWF-backed assets (most of which are already state-owned). Seperate accounts for import/export, let the minions figure a way to handle paying converting to rubbles for salaries, suppliers and such.
4 - loan and trade deal, a.k.a. pump and dump via accounting transactions. 'Hey, Uzbeks & Qazaks... we'll loan you money so you can buy gold from us - you nominally own it but we don't ship until the loan is paid... and we want about 120 rubbles to the $ on the traded gold.' No money changes hands, default does not exist as gold shipments can be cancelled. Just an accounting entry on the mostly-owned by state banks, which could also be sliced out into a separate banking arrangement / 2nd currency with its own state-backed capital injection.
See how option 4 is the easiest?
All Ukraine has to to tell, a couple of times, to the witless US administration is 'let us revisit this in two weeks' and send some pouches of microwavable popcorn
Because, while this can work, very short term, the reality will be that
• NWF *will* be empty
• the deficit will **not** be fully covered, leading to gymnastics
• complicated schemes & gymnastics are just
more sand in the gears of the financial system
• not many will be fooled by the trickfuckery
and tin pu has just announced next year's budget.
40% on military spending. Right.
Cutting social spending. Right.
deficit planned: 1.6% of GDP. [wrong buzzer]
a) the economy is contracting & the forecasts certainly do not contemplate that
b) they're effin' bad at predicting the deficit
last two years deficit was revised twice during course of the year.
So how will that get funded, with no [shut up] piggy bank ?
Banks (state-owned or not) are already over-extended with worsening balance sheets (see previous link); their capital is wilting.
The payments will be a mess, multiple currencies or not. More sand in the gears.
We are litterally at the stage where the collapse will be complete.
No way they can stand 90 days with all that.
You can mark those words.
toro ua 
