Loss Statistics

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from .. to trends (7-day µ)
2025 year-end: NWF, deficit & doom
2024 is key: the economics
Big Ticket Items
Refineries & Disruptions
Boycott
New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1420 2026-01-13 990 6 3 74 3 0 0 5 1 074 232 0 0 0 8
1419 2026-01-12 950 3 7 51 2 0 0 0 933 145 0 0 0 0
1418 2026-01-11 1 060 0 7 21 0 0 0 1 353 98 0 3 0 0
1417 2026-01-10 1 130 11 3 44 1 0 0 0 654 134 0 0 0 0
1416 2026-01-09 880 4 0 16 1 0 0 0 653 84 0 2 0 18
1415 2026-01-08 1 030 5 8 18 0 0 0 0 687 90 0 0 0 0
1414 2026-01-07 1 400 6 9 17 1 0 0 0 225 112 0 0 0 0
1413 2026-01-06 1 040 3 2 26 2 0 0 0 406 122 0 1 0 0
1412 2026-01-05 940 5 6 46 1 0 0 1 879 157 0 0 0 0
1411 2026-01-04 990 8 2 29 2 0 0 0 704 169 0 1 0 0
1410 2026-01-03 900 2 0 12 0 0 0 1 278 88 0 0 0 0
1409 2026-01-02 750 3 4 24 1 0 0 0 539 101 0 0 0 0
1408 2026-01-01 910 6 2 42 2 0 0 1 590 169 0 0 0 1
1407 2025-12-31 1 060 7 4 36 1 0 0 0 769 171 0 0 0 0
1406 2025-12-30 1 000 4 4 33 1 0 0 0 552 127 0 1 0 0
1405 2025-12-29 1 220 5 4 19 1 0 0 0 400 119 0 1 0 0
1404 2025-12-28 1 180 3 6 13 0 0 0 0 305 113 0 1 0 0
1403 2025-12-27 1 200 5 8 15 2 0 0 0 688 166 0 0 0 29
1402 2025-12-26 1 240 5 19 33 0 0 0 0 205 158 0 0 0 0
1401 2025-12-25 840 3 3 74 0 0 0 1 537 180 0 0 0 0
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days date . .
1420 2026-01-13 1 221 850 11 543 23 847 35 893 1 604 14 6 1 258 106 566 74 224 0 4 252 32 924
1419 2026-01-12 1 220 860 11 537 23 844 35 819 1 601 14 6 1 253 105 492 73 992 0 4 252 32 916
1418 2026-01-11 1 219 910 11 534 23 837 35 768 1 599 14 6 1 253 104 559 73 847 0 4 252 32 916
1417 2026-01-10 1 218 850 11 534 23 830 35 747 1 599 14 6 1 252 104 206 73 749 0 4 249 32 916
1416 2026-01-09 1 217 720 11 523 23 827 35 703 1 598 14 6 1 252 103 552 73 615 0 4 249 32 916
1415 2026-01-08 1 216 840 11 519 23 827 35 687 1 597 14 6 1 252 102 899 73 531 0 4 247 32 898
1414 2026-01-07 1 215 810 11 514 23 819 35 669 1 597 14 6 1 252 102 212 73 441 0 4 247 32 898
1413 2026-01-06 1 214 410 11 508 23 810 35 652 1 596 14 6 1 252 101 987 73 329 0 4 247 32 898
1412 2026-01-05 1 213 370 11 505 23 808 35 626 1 594 14 6 1 252 101 581 73 207 0 4 246 32 898
1411 2026-01-04 1 212 430 11 500 23 802 35 580 1 593 14 6 1 251 100 702 73 050 0 4 246 32 898
1410 2026-01-03 1 211 440 11 492 23 800 35 551 1 591 14 6 1 251 99 998 72 881 0 4 245 32 898
1409 2026-01-02 1 210 540 11 490 23 800 35 539 1 591 14 6 1 250 99 720 72 793 0 4 245 32 898
1408 2026-01-01 1 209 790 11 487 23 796 35 515 1 590 14 6 1 250 99 181 72 692 0 4 245 32 898
1407 2025-12-31 1 208 880 11 481 23 794 35 473 1 588 14 6 1 249 98 591 72 523 0 4 245 32 897
1406 2025-12-30 1 207 820 11 474 23 790 35 437 1 587 14 6 1 249 97 822 72 352 0 4 245 32 897
1405 2025-12-29 1 206 820 11 470 23 786 35 404 1 586 14 6 1 249 97 270 72 225 0 4 244 32 897
1404 2025-12-28 1 205 600 11 465 23 782 35 385 1 585 14 6 1 249 96 870 72 106 0 4 243 32 897
1403 2025-12-27 1 204 420 11 462 23 776 35 372 1 585 14 6 1 249 96 565 71 993 0 4 242 32 897
1402 2025-12-26 1 203 220 11 457 23 768 35 357 1 583 14 6 1 249 95 877 71 827 0 4 242 32 868
1401 2025-12-25 1 201 980 11 452 23 749 35 324 1 583 14 6 1 249 95 672 71 669 0 4 242 32 868
days date . .
1420 2026-01-13 859.1 8.1 16.8 25.3 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 75.0 52.2 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1419 2026-01-12 859.0 8.1 16.8 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 74.3 52.1 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1418 2026-01-11 858.9 8.1 16.8 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 73.7 52.0 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1417 2026-01-10 858.8 8.1 16.8 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 73.5 52.0 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1416 2026-01-09 858.6 8.1 16.8 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 73.1 51.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1415 2026-01-08 858.6 8.1 16.8 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 72.7 51.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1414 2026-01-07 858.4 8.1 16.8 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 72.3 51.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1413 2026-01-06 858.1 8.1 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 72.2 51.8 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1412 2026-01-05 857.9 8.1 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 71.9 51.8 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1411 2026-01-04 857.9 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 71.4 51.7 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1410 2026-01-03 857.8 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 70.9 51.6 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1409 2026-01-02 857.7 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 70.8 51.6 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1408 2026-01-01 857.8 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 70.4 51.6 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1407 2025-12-31 857.8 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 70.1 51.5 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1406 2025-12-30 857.6 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 69.6 51.4 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1405 2025-12-29 857.5 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 69.2 51.3 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1404 2025-12-28 857.3 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 69.0 51.3 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1403 2025-12-27 857.0 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 68.8 51.3 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1402 2025-12-26 856.8 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 68.4 51.2 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1401 2025-12-25 856.5 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 68.3 51.1 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
days date . .
1420 2026-01-13 130.9 -2.1 -13.8 48.7 1.9 4.1 999.0 179.8 -3.0 5.2
1419 2026-01-12 91.0 -5.1 -9.8 25.8 0.9 -0.9 858.7 92.9 -3.0 -2.8
1418 2026-01-11 201.1 -8.1 -9.8 -4.2 -1.1 0.1 279.3 46.0 0.0 -2.8
1417 2026-01-10 271.2 2.9 -13.8 18.8 -0.1 -0.9 580.5 82.0 -3.0 -2.8
1416 2026-01-09 21.4 -4.1 -16.8 -9.2 -0.1 -0.9 579.9 32.1 -1.0 15.2
1415 2026-01-08 171.4 -3.1 -8.8 -7.2 -1.1 -0.9 614.3 38.1 -3.0 -2.8
1414 2026-01-07 541.6 -2.1 -7.8 -8.2 -0.1 -0.9 152.7 60.1 -3.0 -2.8
1413 2026-01-06 181.9 -5.1 -14.9 0.8 0.9 -0.9 333.8 70.2 -2.0 -2.8
1412 2026-01-05 82.1 -3.1 -10.9 20.8 -0.1 0.1 807.1 105.2 -3.0 -2.8
1411 2026-01-04 132.1 -0.2 -14.9 3.8 0.9 -0.9 632.6 117.3 -2.0 -2.8
1410 2026-01-03 42.2 -6.2 -16.9 -13.2 -1.1 0.1 207.1 36.4 -3.0 -2.8
1409 2026-01-02 -107.7 -5.2 -12.9 -1.2 -0.1 -0.9 468.2 49.4 -3.0 -2.8
1408 2026-01-01 52.2 -2.2 -14.9 16.8 0.9 0.1 519.6 117.4 -3.0 -1.8
1407 2025-12-31 202.2 -1.2 -12.9 10.8 -0.1 -0.9 698.9 119.5 -3.0 -2.8
1406 2025-12-30 142.4 -4.2 -12.9 7.8 -0.1 -0.9 482.4 75.6 -2.0 -2.8
1405 2025-12-29 362.5 -3.2 -12.9 -6.2 -0.1 -0.9 330.8 67.7 -2.0 -2.8
1404 2025-12-28 322.7 -5.2 -10.9 -12.2 -1.1 -0.9 236.0 61.7 -2.0 -2.8
1403 2025-12-27 343.0 -3.2 -8.9 -10.2 0.9 -0.9 619.2 114.7 -3.0 26.2
1402 2025-12-26 383.2 -3.2 2.0 7.8 -1.1 -0.9 136.6 106.8 -3.0 -2.8
1401 2025-12-25 -16.5 -5.2 -14.0 48.8 -1.1 0.1 468.7 128.9 -3.0 -2.8
days date . .
1420 2026-01-13 1 063 5 5 34 1 0 0 1 654 128 0 1 0 4
1419 2026-01-12 1 070 5 5 28 1 0 0 0 559 112 0 1 0 3
1418 2026-01-11 1 069 5 5 27 1 0 0 0 551 114 0 1 0 3
1417 2026-01-10 1 059 6 4 28 1 0 0 0 601 124 0 1 0 3
1416 2026-01-09 1 026 5 4 23 1 0 0 0 547 117 0 1 0 3
1415 2026-01-08 1 007 5 4 25 1 0 0 0 531 120 0 0 0 0
1414 2026-01-07 990 5 4 28 1 0 0 0 517 131 0 0 0 0
1413 2026-01-06 941 5 3 31 1 0 0 0 595 140 0 0 0 0
1412 2026-01-05 936 5 3 32 1 0 0 0 616 140 0 0 0 0
1411 2026-01-04 976 5 3 28 1 0 0 0 547 135 0 0 0 0
1410 2026-01-03 1 003 4 3 26 1 0 0 0 490 127 0 0 0 0
1409 2026-01-02 1 046 5 5 26 1 0 0 0 549 138 0 0 0 4
1408 2026-01-01 1 116 5 7 27 1 0 0 0 501 146 0 0 0 4
1407 2025-12-31 1 106 5 7 32 1 0 0 0 494 148 0 0 0 4
1406 2025-12-30 1 077 5 7 35 1 0 0 0 470 145 0 0 0 4
1405 2025-12-29 1 090 4 7 37 1 0 0 0 538 149 0 0 0 9
1404 2025-12-28 1 119 5 9 37 1 0 0 0 546 148 0 0 0 9
1403 2025-12-27 1 111 5 9 37 1 0 0 0 519 142 0 0 0 9
1402 2025-12-26 1 101 4 8 37 1 0 0 0 437 128 0 0 0 5
1401 2025-12-25 1 080 4 5 37 1 0 0 0 457 124 0 0 0 5
days date . .
1420 2026-01-13 1 083 5 6 32 1 0 0 0 515 134 0 0 0 3
1419 2026-01-12 1 082 4 6 32 1 0 0 0 501 133 0 0 0 3
1418 2026-01-11 1 074 4 6 31 1 0 0 0 485 131 0 0 0 3
1417 2026-01-10 1 082 4 6 31 1 0 0 0 482 131 0 0 0 3
1416 2026-01-09 1 091 4 6 30 1 0 0 0 469 130 0 1 0 3
1415 2026-01-08 1 111 4 6 30 1 0 0 0 450 132 0 1 0 3
1414 2026-01-07 1 107 4 6 30 1 0 0 0 442 131 0 1 0 3
1413 2026-01-06 1 092 4 6 31 1 0 0 0 448 130 0 1 0 3
1412 2026-01-05 1 084 4 6 30 1 0 0 0 453 127 0 1 0 3
1411 2026-01-04 1 089 4 6 30 1 0 0 0 441 125 0 1 0 4
1410 2026-01-03 1 095 3 6 30 1 0 0 0 434 124 0 1 0 4
1409 2026-01-02 1 106 3 6 31 1 0 0 0 439 124 0 1 0 4
1408 2026-01-01 1 119 3 6 31 1 0 0 0 429 125 0 1 0 4
1407 2025-12-31 1 129 3 6 30 1 0 0 0 412 121 0 1 0 4
1406 2025-12-30 1 131 3 6 29 1 0 0 0 389 117 0 1 0 4
1405 2025-12-29 1 133 3 6 28 1 0 0 0 378 115 0 1 0 4
1404 2025-12-28 1 131 3 6 28 1 0 0 0 382 113 0 1 0 5
1403 2025-12-27 1 122 3 6 28 1 0 0 0 375 111 0 1 0 5
1402 2025-12-26 1 118 3 7 28 1 0 0 0 354 107 0 1 0 4
1401 2025-12-25 1 115 3 6 27 1 0 0 0 355 106 0 1 0 4
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