Loss Statistics

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from .. to trends (7-day µ)
2025 year-end: NWF, deficit & doom
2024 is key: the economics
Big Ticket Items
Refineries & Disruptions
Boycott
New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1413 2026-01-06 1 040 3 2 26 2 0 0 0 406 122 0 1 0 0
1412 2026-01-05 940 5 6 46 1 0 0 1 879 157 0 0 0 0
1411 2026-01-04 990 8 2 29 2 0 0 0 704 169 0 1 0 0
1410 2026-01-03 900 2 0 12 0 0 0 1 278 88 0 0 0 0
1409 2026-01-02 750 3 4 24 1 0 0 0 539 101 0 0 0 0
1408 2026-01-01 910 6 2 42 2 0 0 1 590 169 0 0 0 1
1407 2025-12-31 1 060 7 4 36 1 0 0 0 769 171 0 0 0 0
1406 2025-12-30 1 000 4 4 33 1 0 0 0 552 127 0 1 0 0
1405 2025-12-29 1 220 5 4 19 1 0 0 0 400 119 0 1 0 0
1404 2025-12-28 1 180 3 6 13 0 0 0 0 305 113 0 1 0 0
1403 2025-12-27 1 200 5 8 15 2 0 0 0 688 166 0 0 0 29
1402 2025-12-26 1 240 5 19 33 0 0 0 0 205 158 0 0 0 0
1401 2025-12-25 840 3 3 74 0 0 0 1 537 180 0 0 0 0
1400 2025-12-24 860 7 5 59 0 0 0 0 600 149 0 0 0 0
1399 2025-12-23 1 090 3 4 45 3 0 0 0 1 031 159 0 0 0 34
1398 2025-12-22 1 420 8 20 23 1 0 0 0 453 113 0 0 0 0
1397 2025-12-21 1 130 2 1 11 0 0 0 0 116 68 0 1 0 0
1396 2025-12-20 1 130 2 1 11 0 0 0 0 116 68 0 1 0 0
1395 2025-12-19 1 090 0 1 37 1 0 0 0 346 130 0 1 0 0
1394 2025-12-18 1 220 1 10 18 1 0 0 0 426 111 0 0 0 0
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days date . .
1413 2026-01-06 1 214 410 11 508 23 810 35 652 1 596 14 6 1 252 101 987 73 329 0 4 247 32 898
1412 2026-01-05 1 213 370 11 505 23 808 35 626 1 594 14 6 1 252 101 581 73 207 0 4 246 32 898
1411 2026-01-04 1 212 430 11 500 23 802 35 580 1 593 14 6 1 251 100 702 73 050 0 4 246 32 898
1410 2026-01-03 1 211 440 11 492 23 800 35 551 1 591 14 6 1 251 99 998 72 881 0 4 245 32 898
1409 2026-01-02 1 210 540 11 490 23 800 35 539 1 591 14 6 1 250 99 720 72 793 0 4 245 32 898
1408 2026-01-01 1 209 790 11 487 23 796 35 515 1 590 14 6 1 250 99 181 72 692 0 4 245 32 898
1407 2025-12-31 1 208 880 11 481 23 794 35 473 1 588 14 6 1 249 98 591 72 523 0 4 245 32 897
1406 2025-12-30 1 207 820 11 474 23 790 35 437 1 587 14 6 1 249 97 822 72 352 0 4 245 32 897
1405 2025-12-29 1 206 820 11 470 23 786 35 404 1 586 14 6 1 249 97 270 72 225 0 4 244 32 897
1404 2025-12-28 1 205 600 11 465 23 782 35 385 1 585 14 6 1 249 96 870 72 106 0 4 243 32 897
1403 2025-12-27 1 204 420 11 462 23 776 35 372 1 585 14 6 1 249 96 565 71 993 0 4 242 32 897
1402 2025-12-26 1 203 220 11 457 23 768 35 357 1 583 14 6 1 249 95 877 71 827 0 4 242 32 868
1401 2025-12-25 1 201 980 11 452 23 749 35 324 1 583 14 6 1 249 95 672 71 669 0 4 242 32 868
1400 2025-12-24 1 201 140 11 449 23 746 35 250 1 583 14 6 1 248 95 135 71 489 0 4 242 32 868
1399 2025-12-23 1 200 280 11 442 23 741 35 191 1 583 14 6 1 248 94 535 71 340 0 4 242 32 868
1398 2025-12-22 1 199 190 11 439 23 737 35 146 1 580 14 6 1 248 93 504 71 181 0 4 242 32 834
1397 2025-12-21 1 197 770 11 431 23 717 35 123 1 579 14 6 1 248 93 051 71 068 0 4 242 32 834
1396 2025-12-20 1 196 640 11 429 23 716 35 112 1 579 14 6 1 248 92 935 71 000 0 4 241 32 834
1395 2025-12-19 1 195 510 11 427 23 715 35 101 1 579 14 6 1 248 92 819 70 932 0 4 240 32 834
1394 2025-12-18 1 194 420 11 427 23 714 35 064 1 578 14 6 1 248 92 473 70 802 0 4 239 32 834
days date . .
1413 2026-01-06 858.1 8.1 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 72.2 51.8 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1412 2026-01-05 857.9 8.1 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 71.9 51.8 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1411 2026-01-04 857.9 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 71.4 51.7 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1410 2026-01-03 857.8 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 70.9 51.6 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1409 2026-01-02 857.7 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 70.8 51.6 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1408 2026-01-01 857.8 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 70.4 51.6 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1407 2025-12-31 857.8 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 70.1 51.5 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1406 2025-12-30 857.6 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 69.6 51.4 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1405 2025-12-29 857.5 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 69.2 51.3 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1404 2025-12-28 857.3 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 69.0 51.3 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1403 2025-12-27 857.0 8.2 16.9 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 68.8 51.3 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1402 2025-12-26 856.8 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 68.4 51.2 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1401 2025-12-25 856.5 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 68.3 51.1 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1400 2025-12-24 856.5 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 68.0 51.0 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1399 2025-12-23 856.5 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 67.6 50.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1398 2025-12-22 856.4 8.2 17.0 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 66.9 50.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1397 2025-12-21 856.0 8.2 17.0 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 66.6 50.8 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1396 2025-12-20 855.8 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 66.6 50.8 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1395 2025-12-19 855.6 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 66.5 50.8 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1394 2025-12-18 855.4 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 66.3 50.7 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
days date . .
1413 2026-01-06 181.9 -5.1 -14.9 0.8 0.9 -0.9 333.8 70.2 -2.0 -2.8
1412 2026-01-05 82.1 -3.1 -10.9 20.8 -0.1 0.1 807.1 105.2 -3.0 -2.8
1411 2026-01-04 132.1 -0.2 -14.9 3.8 0.9 -0.9 632.6 117.3 -2.0 -2.8
1410 2026-01-03 42.2 -6.2 -16.9 -13.2 -1.1 0.1 207.1 36.4 -3.0 -2.8
1409 2026-01-02 -107.7 -5.2 -12.9 -1.2 -0.1 -0.9 468.2 49.4 -3.0 -2.8
1408 2026-01-01 52.2 -2.2 -14.9 16.8 0.9 0.1 519.6 117.4 -3.0 -1.8
1407 2025-12-31 202.2 -1.2 -12.9 10.8 -0.1 -0.9 698.9 119.5 -3.0 -2.8
1406 2025-12-30 142.4 -4.2 -12.9 7.8 -0.1 -0.9 482.4 75.6 -2.0 -2.8
1405 2025-12-29 362.5 -3.2 -12.9 -6.2 -0.1 -0.9 330.8 67.7 -2.0 -2.8
1404 2025-12-28 322.7 -5.2 -10.9 -12.2 -1.1 -0.9 236.0 61.7 -2.0 -2.8
1403 2025-12-27 343.0 -3.2 -8.9 -10.2 0.9 -0.9 619.2 114.7 -3.0 26.2
1402 2025-12-26 383.2 -3.2 2.0 7.8 -1.1 -0.9 136.6 106.8 -3.0 -2.8
1401 2025-12-25 -16.5 -5.2 -14.0 48.8 -1.1 0.1 468.7 128.9 -3.0 -2.8
1400 2025-12-24 3.5 -1.2 -12.0 33.8 -1.1 -0.9 532.1 98.0 -3.0 -2.8
1399 2025-12-23 233.5 -5.2 -13.0 19.8 1.9 -0.9 963.4 108.1 -3.0 31.2
1398 2025-12-22 563.6 -0.2 3.0 -2.1 -0.1 -0.9 386.1 62.1 -3.0 -2.8
1397 2025-12-21 274.0 -6.2 -16.0 -14.1 -1.1 -0.9 49.4 17.2 -2.0 -2.8
1396 2025-12-20 274.2 -6.2 -16.0 -14.2 -1.1 -0.9 49.4 17.2 -2.0 -2.8
1395 2025-12-19 234.4 -8.2 -16.0 11.8 -0.1 -0.9 279.5 79.2 -2.0 -2.8
1394 2025-12-18 364.6 -7.2 -7.0 -7.2 -0.1 -0.9 359.7 60.3 -3.0 -2.8
days date . .
1413 2026-01-06 941 5 3 31 1 0 0 0 595 140 0 0 0 0
1412 2026-01-05 936 5 3 32 1 0 0 0 616 140 0 0 0 0
1411 2026-01-04 976 5 3 28 1 0 0 0 547 135 0 0 0 0
1410 2026-01-03 1 003 4 3 26 1 0 0 0 490 127 0 0 0 0
1409 2026-01-02 1 046 5 5 26 1 0 0 0 549 138 0 0 0 4
1408 2026-01-01 1 116 5 7 27 1 0 0 0 501 146 0 0 0 4
1407 2025-12-31 1 106 5 7 32 1 0 0 0 494 148 0 0 0 4
1406 2025-12-30 1 077 5 7 35 1 0 0 0 470 145 0 0 0 4
1405 2025-12-29 1 090 4 7 37 1 0 0 0 538 149 0 0 0 9
1404 2025-12-28 1 119 5 9 37 1 0 0 0 546 148 0 0 0 9
1403 2025-12-27 1 111 5 9 37 1 0 0 0 519 142 0 0 0 9
1402 2025-12-26 1 101 4 8 37 1 0 0 0 437 128 0 0 0 5
1401 2025-12-25 1 080 4 5 37 1 0 0 0 457 124 0 0 0 5
1400 2025-12-24 1 134 3 6 29 1 0 0 0 441 114 0 0 0 5
1399 2025-12-23 1 147 3 5 25 1 0 0 0 403 110 0 0 0 5
1398 2025-12-22 1 239 3 8 23 1 0 0 0 279 113 0 1 0 0
1397 2025-12-21 1 200 4 6 29 1 0 0 0 278 122 0 1 0 0
1396 2025-12-20 1 179 4 7 37 1 0 0 1 354 142 0 0 0 0
1395 2025-12-19 1 119 3 8 36 1 0 0 1 401 143 0 0 0 2
1394 2025-12-18 1 149 4 9 35 1 0 0 1 392 140 0 0 0 2
days date . .
1413 2026-01-06 1 092 4 6 31 1 0 0 0 448 130 0 1 0 3
1412 2026-01-05 1 084 4 6 30 1 0 0 0 453 127 0 1 0 3
1411 2026-01-04 1 089 4 6 30 1 0 0 0 441 125 0 1 0 4
1410 2026-01-03 1 095 3 6 30 1 0 0 0 434 124 0 1 0 4
1409 2026-01-02 1 106 3 6 31 1 0 0 0 439 124 0 1 0 4
1408 2026-01-01 1 119 3 6 31 1 0 0 0 429 125 0 1 0 4
1407 2025-12-31 1 129 3 6 30 1 0 0 0 412 121 0 1 0 4
1406 2025-12-30 1 131 3 6 29 1 0 0 0 389 117 0 1 0 4
1405 2025-12-29 1 133 3 6 28 1 0 0 0 378 115 0 1 0 4
1404 2025-12-28 1 131 3 6 28 1 0 0 0 382 113 0 1 0 5
1403 2025-12-27 1 122 3 6 28 1 0 0 0 375 111 0 1 0 5
1402 2025-12-26 1 118 3 7 28 1 0 0 0 354 107 0 1 0 4
1401 2025-12-25 1 115 3 6 27 1 0 0 0 355 106 0 1 0 4
1400 2025-12-24 1 120 3 6 26 1 0 0 0 361 104 0 1 0 4
1399 2025-12-23 1 128 3 6 25 1 0 0 1 356 103 0 1 0 4
1398 2025-12-22 1 132 3 6 25 1 0 0 1 336 100 0 1 0 3
1397 2025-12-21 1 115 3 6 25 1 0 0 1 338 99 0 1 0 3
1396 2025-12-20 1 116 3 6 25 1 0 0 1 341 99 0 1 0 3
1395 2025-12-19 1 114 3 6 25 1 0 0 1 342 99 0 1 0 3
1394 2025-12-18 1 107 3 6 25 1 0 0 1 344 97 0 1 0 4
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