Loss Statistics

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2024 is key: the economics
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New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1134 2025-04-02 1 390 6 22 49 1 0 0 0 92 88 0 0 0 0
1132 2025-03-31 1 540 9 37 15 0 0 0 0 46 53 0 0 0 2
1131 2025-03-30 1 230 4 3 30 0 0 0 1 71 65 0 0 0 0
1130 2025-03-29 1 510 14 20 56 2 0 0 0 111 130 0 0 0 0
1129 2025-03-28 1 740 23 34 64 1 0 0 3 164 118 0 0 0 0
1128 2025-03-27 1 860 17 61 122 1 0 0 1 144 210 0 0 0 0
1127 2025-03-26 1 670 8 16 58 2 0 0 1 108 169 0 1 0 0
1126 2025-03-25 1 280 5 15 17 0 0 0 0 59 77 0 1 0 0
1125 2025-03-24 1 180 5 18 61 3 0 0 0 118 98 0 0 0 0
1124 2025-03-23 1 280 8 16 81 5 0 4 1 146 116 0 1 0 0
1123 2025-03-22 1 470 9 27 104 6 0 0 5 157 185 0 2 0 0
1122 2025-03-21 1 210 9 20 96 3 0 0 0 258 166 0 0 0 0
1121 2025-03-20 1 330 17 28 101 2 0 0 1 185 165 0 2 0 0
1120 2025-03-19 1 400 13 38 43 2 0 0 3 179 91 0 0 0 0
1119 2025-03-18 1 060 12 14 64 1 0 0 0 100 111 0 0 0 0
1118 2025-03-17 1 560 8 20 42 1 0 0 3 149 107 0 2 0 0
1117 2025-03-16 1 210 19 11 37 1 0 0 0 54 101 0 1 0 0
1116 2025-03-15 1 400 10 20 78 2 0 0 1 180 113 0 0 0 0
1115 2025-03-14 1 180 2 15 28 0 0 0 0 97 102 0 0 0 0
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days date . .
1132 2025-03-31 914 820 10 505 21 826 25 471 1 355 368 334 1 105 31 441 42 462 80 3 773 31 2 919
1131 2025-03-30 913 280 10 496 21 789 25 456 1 355 368 334 1 105 31 395 42 409 80 3 773 31 2 917
1130 2025-03-29 912 050 10 492 21 786 25 426 1 355 368 334 1 104 31 324 42 344 80 3 773 31 2 917
1129 2025-03-28 910 540 10 478 21 766 25 370 1 353 368 334 1 104 31 213 42 214 80 3 773 31 2 917
1128 2025-03-27 908 800 10 455 21 732 25 306 1 352 368 334 1 101 31 049 42 096 80 3 773 31 2 917
1127 2025-03-26 906 940 10 438 21 671 25 184 1 351 368 334 1 100 30 905 41 886 80 3 773 31 2 917
1126 2025-03-25 905 270 10 430 21 655 25 126 1 349 368 334 1 099 30 797 41 717 80 3 772 31 2 917
1125 2025-03-24 903 990 10 425 21 640 25 109 1 349 368 334 1 099 30 738 41 640 80 3 771 31 2 917
1124 2025-03-23 902 810 10 420 21 622 25 048 1 346 368 334 1 099 30 620 41 542 80 3 771 31 2 917
1123 2025-03-22 901 530 10 412 21 606 24 967 1 341 368 330 1 098 30 474 41 426 80 3 770 31 2 917
1122 2025-03-21 900 060 10 403 21 579 24 863 1 335 368 330 1 093 30 317 41 241 80 3 768 31 2 917
1121 2025-03-20 898 850 10 394 21 559 24 767 1 332 368 330 1 093 30 059 41 075 80 3 768 31 2 917
1120 2025-03-19 897 520 10 377 21 531 24 666 1 330 368 330 1 092 29 874 40 910 80 3 766 31 2 917
1119 2025-03-18 896 120 10 364 21 493 24 623 1 328 368 330 1 089 29 695 40 819 80 3 766 31 2 917
1118 2025-03-17 895 060 10 352 21 479 24 559 1 327 368 330 1 089 29 595 40 708 80 3 766 31 2 917
1117 2025-03-16 893 500 10 344 21 459 24 517 1 326 368 330 1 086 29 446 40 601 80 3 764 31 2 917
1116 2025-03-15 892 290 10 325 21 448 24 480 1 325 368 330 1 086 29 392 40 500 80 3 763 31 2 917
1115 2025-03-14 890 890 10 315 21 428 24 402 1 323 368 330 1 085 29 212 40 387 80 3 763 31 2 917
days date . .
1132 2025-03-31 808.1 9.3 19.3 22.5 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 27.8 37.4 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.6
1131 2025-03-30 807.5 9.3 19.3 22.5 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 27.7 37.4 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.6
1130 2025-03-29 807.1 9.3 19.3 22.5 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 27.7 37.4 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.6
1129 2025-03-28 806.5 9.3 19.3 22.5 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 27.6 37.3 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.6
1128 2025-03-27 805.7 9.3 19.3 22.4 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 27.5 37.2 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1127 2025-03-26 804.7 9.3 19.2 22.3 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 27.4 37.1 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1126 2025-03-25 804.0 9.3 19.2 22.3 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 27.3 37.0 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1125 2025-03-24 803.5 9.3 19.2 22.3 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 27.3 36.9 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1124 2025-03-23 803.2 9.3 19.2 22.3 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 27.2 36.9 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1123 2025-03-22 802.8 9.3 19.2 22.2 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 27.1 36.8 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1122 2025-03-21 802.2 9.3 19.2 22.2 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 27.0 36.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1121 2025-03-20 801.8 9.3 19.2 22.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.8 36.6 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1120 2025-03-19 801.4 9.3 19.2 22.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.7 36.5 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1119 2025-03-18 800.8 9.3 19.2 22.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.5 36.4 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1118 2025-03-17 800.6 9.3 19.2 22.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.4 36.3 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1117 2025-03-16 799.9 9.3 19.2 21.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.3 36.3 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1116 2025-03-15 799.5 9.3 19.2 21.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.3 36.2 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1115 2025-03-14 799.0 9.3 19.2 21.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.2 36.1 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
days date . .
1132 2025-03-31 731.9 -0.3 17.7 -7.5 -1.2 -1.0 18.2 15.6 -3.3 -0.6
1131 2025-03-30 422.5 -5.3 -16.3 7.5 -1.2 0.0 43.3 27.6 -3.3 -2.6
1130 2025-03-29 702.9 4.7 0.7 33.5 0.8 -1.0 83.3 92.6 -3.3 -2.6
1129 2025-03-28 933.5 13.7 14.7 41.5 -0.2 2.0 136.4 80.7 -3.3 -2.6
1128 2025-03-27 1 054.3 7.7 41.7 99.6 -0.2 0.0 116.5 172.8 -3.4 -2.6
1127 2025-03-26 865.3 -1.3 -3.2 35.7 0.8 0.0 80.6 131.9 -2.4 -2.6
1126 2025-03-25 476.0 -4.3 -4.2 -5.3 -1.2 -1.0 31.7 40.0 -2.4 -2.6
1125 2025-03-24 376.5 -4.3 -1.2 38.7 1.8 -1.0 90.7 61.1 -3.4 -2.6
1124 2025-03-23 476.8 -1.3 -3.2 58.7 3.8 -0.3 3.7 0.0 118.8 79.1 -0.1 -2.4 0.0 -2.6
1123 2025-03-22 667.2 -0.3 7.8 81.8 4.8 4.0 129.9 148.2 -1.4 -2.6
1122 2025-03-21 407.8 -0.3 0.8 73.8 1.8 -1.0 231.0 129.3 -3.4 -2.6
1121 2025-03-20 528.2 7.7 8.8 78.9 0.8 0.0 158.2 128.4 -1.4 -2.6
1120 2025-03-19 598.6 3.7 18.8 21.0 0.8 2.0 152.4 54.5 -3.4 -2.6
1119 2025-03-18 259.2 2.7 -5.2 42.0 -0.2 -1.0 73.5 74.6 -3.4 -2.6
1118 2025-03-17 759.4 -1.3 0.8 20.0 -0.2 2.0 122.6 70.7 -1.4 -2.6
1117 2025-03-16 410.1 9.7 -8.2 15.1 -0.2 -1.0 27.7 64.7 -2.4 -2.6
1116 2025-03-15 600.5 0.7 0.8 56.1 0.8 0.0 153.7 76.8 -3.4 -2.6
1115 2025-03-14 381.0 -7.3 -4.2 6.1 -1.2 -1.0 70.8 65.9 -3.4 -2.6
days date . .
1132 2025-03-31 1 547 11 27 52 1 0 0 1 100 117 0 0 0 0
1131 2025-03-30 1 496 11 24 58 1 0 0 1 111 124 0 0 0 0
1130 2025-03-29 1 503 11 26 66 2 0 1 1 121 131 0 0 0 0
1129 2025-03-28 1 497 11 27 72 3 0 1 2 128 139 0 1 0 0
1128 2025-03-27 1 421 9 25 77 3 0 1 1 141 146 0 1 0 0
1127 2025-03-26 1 346 9 20 74 3 0 1 1 147 139 0 1 0 0
1126 2025-03-25 1 307 9 23 72 3 0 1 1 157 128 0 1 0 0
1125 2025-03-24 1 276 10 23 79 3 0 1 1 163 133 0 1 0 0
1124 2025-03-23 1 330 11 23 76 3 0 1 2 168 134 0 1 0 0
1123 2025-03-22 1 320 12 23 70 2 0 0 2 155 132 0 1 0 0
1122 2025-03-21 1 310 13 22 66 2 0 0 1 158 122 0 1 0 0
1121 2025-03-20 1 306 12 21 56 1 0 0 1 135 113 0 1 0 0
1120 2025-03-19 1 317 10 18 48 1 0 0 1 130 106 0 0 0 0
1119 2025-03-18 1 289 8 13 45 1 0 0 1 115 104 0 0 0 0
1118 2025-03-17 1 299 7 12 42 1 0 0 1 116 98 0 1 0 0
1117 2025-03-16 1 261 7 13 47 1 0 0 0 123 102 0 1 0 0
1116 2025-03-15 1 259 7 17 51 1 0 0 0 150 107 0 1 0 0
1115 2025-03-14 1 227 7 16 48 1 0 0 1 152 111 0 1 0 0
days date . .
1132 2025-03-31 1 325 9 19 53 1 0 0 1 129 114 0 1 0 1
1131 2025-03-30 1 311 9 19 54 1 0 0 1 134 116 0 1 0 1
1130 2025-03-29 1 305 9 19 55 1 0 0 1 136 118 0 1 0 1
1129 2025-03-28 1 290 9 19 55 1 0 0 1 138 118 0 1 0 1
1128 2025-03-27 1 270 8 19 55 1 0 0 1 137 119 0 1 0 1
1127 2025-03-26 1 247 9 17 53 1 0 0 1 139 116 0 1 0 1
1126 2025-03-25 1 235 8 17 51 1 0 0 1 139 115 0 1 0 1
1125 2025-03-24 1 227 9 17 52 1 0 0 1 144 116 0 1 0 1
1124 2025-03-23 1 227 9 16 52 1 0 0 1 144 116 0 1 0 1
1123 2025-03-22 1 222 9 16 52 1 0 0 1 145 116 0 1 0 1
1122 2025-03-21 1 216 9 16 50 1 0 0 1 144 115 0 1 0 1
1121 2025-03-20 1 215 9 16 49 1 0 0 1 141 114 0 1 0 1
1120 2025-03-19 1 214 9 16 48 1 0 0 1 140 113 0 1 0 1
1119 2025-03-18 1 207 9 15 48 1 0 0 1 140 113 0 1 0 1
1118 2025-03-17 1 222 9 16 47 1 0 0 1 141 114 0 1 0 1
1117 2025-03-16 1 228 9 18 46 1 0 0 1 138 113 0 1 0 1
1116 2025-03-15 1 227 9 18 47 1 0 0 1 140 114 0 1 0 1
1115 2025-03-14 1 220 9 18 47 1 0 0 1 139 115 0 1 0 1
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