Loss Statistics

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2024 is key: the economics
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New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1331 2025-10-16 730 5 10 35 0 0 0 1 588 73 0 1 0 5
1330 2025-10-15 1 080 2 9 42 0 0 0 0 416 139 0 0 0 0
1329 2025-10-14 1 070 3 2 43 0 0 0 2 389 141 0 0 0 0
1328 2025-10-13 1 200 5 0 29 0 0 0 0 390 145 0 0 0 0
1327 2025-10-12 1 140 3 0 21 2 0 0 0 232 109 0 1 0 0
1326 2025-10-11 1 240 1 0 10 1 0 0 0 244 87 0 3 0 0
1325 2025-10-10 1 060 1 6 21 1 0 0 0 219 72 0 0 0 18
1324 2025-10-09 1 120 5 14 13 0 0 0 0 254 70 0 0 0 0
1323 2025-10-08 1 010 2 5 26 1 0 0 1 401 75 0 0 0 0
1322 2025-10-07 1 010 2 5 26 1 0 0 1 401 75 0 0 0 0
1321 2025-10-06 1 020 3 6 29 0 0 0 1 338 79 0 2 0 0
1320 2025-10-05 1 090 5 14 18 0 0 0 1 363 63 0 0 0 38
1319 2025-10-04 870 4 1 18 1 0 0 0 320 35 0 0 0 0
1318 2025-10-03 950 1 1 15 1 0 0 0 450 73 0 1 0 10
1317 2025-10-02 970 1 1 13 1 0 0 0 271 44 0 0 0 0
1316 2025-10-01 980 1 2 12 2 0 1 0 271 29 0 0 0 0
1315 2025-09-30 920 1 3 13 0 0 0 0 249 33 0 0 0 0
1314 2025-09-29 970 4 1 27 1 0 0 0 301 90 0 0 0 0
1313 2025-09-28 1 080 7 0 53 1 0 0 1 617 111 0 2 0 43
1312 2025-09-27 1 110 7 2 45 1 0 0 0 454 131 0 0 0 0
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days date . .
1331 2025-10-16 1 128 010 11 261 23 339 33 560 1 523 10 5 1 213 71 101 64 345 0 3 988 31 625
1330 2025-10-15 1 127 280 11 256 23 329 33 525 1 523 10 5 1 212 70 513 64 272 0 3 987 31 620
1329 2025-10-14 1 126 200 11 254 23 320 33 483 1 523 10 5 1 212 70 097 64 133 0 3 987 31 620
1328 2025-10-13 1 125 130 11 251 23 318 33 440 1 523 10 5 1 210 69 708 63 992 0 3 987 31 620
1327 2025-10-12 1 123 930 11 246 23 318 33 411 1 523 10 5 1 210 69 318 63 847 0 3 987 31 620
1326 2025-10-11 1 122 790 11 243 23 318 33 390 1 521 10 5 1 210 69 086 63 738 0 3 986 31 620
1325 2025-10-10 1 121 550 11 242 23 318 33 380 1 520 10 5 1 210 68 842 63 651 0 3 983 31 620
1324 2025-10-09 1 120 490 11 241 23 312 33 359 1 519 10 5 1 210 68 623 63 579 0 3 983 31 602
1323 2025-10-08 1 119 370 11 236 23 298 33 346 1 519 10 5 1 210 68 369 63 509 0 3 983 31 602
1322 2025-10-07 1 118 360 11 234 23 293 33 320 1 518 10 5 1 209 67 968 63 434 0 3 983 31 602
1321 2025-10-06 1 117 350 11 232 23 288 33 294 1 517 10 5 1 208 67 567 63 359 0 3 983 31 602
1320 2025-10-05 1 116 330 11 229 23 282 33 265 1 517 10 5 1 207 67 229 63 280 0 3 981 31 602
1319 2025-10-04 1 115 240 11 224 23 268 33 247 1 517 10 5 1 206 66 866 63 217 0 3 981 31 564
1318 2025-10-03 1 114 370 11 220 23 267 33 229 1 516 10 5 1 206 66 546 63 182 0 3 981 31 564
1317 2025-10-02 1 113 420 11 219 23 266 33 214 1 515 10 5 1 206 66 096 63 109 0 3 980 31 554
1316 2025-10-01 1 112 450 11 218 23 265 33 201 1 514 10 5 1 206 65 825 63 065 0 3 980 31 554
1315 2025-09-30 1 111 470 11 217 23 263 33 189 1 512 10 4 1 206 65 554 63 036 0 3 980 31 554
1314 2025-09-29 1 110 550 11 216 23 260 33 176 1 512 10 4 1 206 65 305 63 003 0 3 980 31 554
1313 2025-09-28 1 109 580 11 212 23 259 33 149 1 511 10 4 1 206 65 004 62 913 0 3 980 31 554
1312 2025-09-27 1 108 500 11 205 23 259 33 096 1 510 10 4 1 205 64 387 62 802 0 3 978 31 511
days date . .
1331 2025-10-16 846.0 8.5 17.5 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 53.4 48.3 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1330 2025-10-15 846.1 8.5 17.5 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 53.0 48.3 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1329 2025-10-14 845.9 8.5 17.5 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 52.7 48.2 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1328 2025-10-13 845.7 8.5 17.6 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 52.5 48.1 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1327 2025-10-12 845.5 8.5 17.6 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 52.2 48.1 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1326 2025-10-11 845.3 8.5 17.6 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 52.1 48.0 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1325 2025-10-10 845.0 8.5 17.6 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 52.0 48.0 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1324 2025-10-09 844.8 8.5 17.6 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 51.8 48.0 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1323 2025-10-08 844.6 8.5 17.6 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 51.7 47.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1322 2025-10-07 844.5 8.5 17.6 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 51.4 47.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1321 2025-10-06 844.3 8.5 17.6 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 51.1 47.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1320 2025-10-05 844.2 8.5 17.6 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 50.9 47.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1319 2025-10-04 844.0 8.5 17.6 25.2 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 50.7 47.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.7
1318 2025-10-03 844.0 8.5 17.7 25.2 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 50.5 47.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.7
1317 2025-10-02 843.9 8.5 17.7 25.2 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 50.2 47.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.7
1316 2025-10-01 843.8 8.5 17.7 25.2 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 50.0 47.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.7
1315 2025-09-30 843.7 8.5 17.7 25.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 49.8 47.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.7
1314 2025-09-29 843.7 8.5 17.7 25.2 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 49.7 47.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.7
1313 2025-09-28 843.6 8.5 17.7 25.2 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 49.5 47.9 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.7
1312 2025-09-27 843.4 8.5 17.7 25.2 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 49.1 47.8 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.7
days date . .
1331 2025-10-16 -116.0 -3.5 -7.5 9.8 -1.1 0.1 534.6 24.7 -2.0 2.2
1330 2025-10-15 233.9 -6.5 -8.5 16.8 -1.1 -0.9 363.0 90.7 -3.0 -2.8
1329 2025-10-14 224.1 -5.5 -15.5 17.8 -1.1 1.1 336.3 92.8 -3.0 -2.8
1328 2025-10-13 354.3 -3.5 -17.6 3.8 -1.1 -0.9 337.5 96.9 -3.0 -2.8
1327 2025-10-12 294.5 -5.5 -17.6 -4.2 0.9 -0.9 179.8 60.9 -2.0 -2.8
1326 2025-10-11 394.7 -7.5 -17.6 -15.2 -0.1 -0.9 191.9 39.0 0.0 -2.8
1325 2025-10-10 215.0 -7.5 -11.6 -4.2 -0.1 -0.9 167.0 24.0 -3.0 15.2
1324 2025-10-09 275.2 -3.5 -3.6 -12.2 -1.1 -0.9 202.2 22.0 -3.0 -2.8
1323 2025-10-08 165.4 -6.5 -12.6 0.8 -0.1 0.1 349.3 27.1 -3.0 -2.8
1322 2025-10-07 165.5 -6.5 -12.6 0.8 -0.1 0.1 349.6 27.1 -3.0 -2.8
1321 2025-10-06 175.7 -5.5 -11.6 3.8 -1.1 0.1 286.9 31.1 -1.0 -2.8
1320 2025-10-05 245.8 -3.5 -3.6 -7.2 -1.1 0.1 312.1 15.1 -3.0 35.2
1319 2025-10-04 26.0 -4.5 -16.6 -7.2 -0.2 -0.9 269.3 -12.9 -3.0 -2.7
1318 2025-10-03 106.0 -7.5 -16.7 -10.2 -0.2 -0.9 399.5 25.1 -2.0 7.3
1317 2025-10-02 126.1 -7.5 -16.7 -12.2 -0.2 -0.9 220.8 -3.9 -3.0 -2.7
1316 2025-10-01 136.2 -7.5 -15.7 -13.2 0.8 -0.4 0.7 -0.9 221.0 -18.9 -0.1 -3.0 0.0 -2.7
1315 2025-09-30 76.3 -7.5 -14.7 -12.2 -1.1 -0.9 199.2 -14.9 -3.0 -2.7
1314 2025-09-29 126.3 -4.5 -16.7 1.8 -0.2 -0.9 251.3 42.1 -3.0 -2.7
1313 2025-09-28 236.4 -1.5 -17.7 27.8 -0.2 0.1 567.5 63.1 -1.0 40.3
1312 2025-09-27 266.6 -1.5 -15.7 19.8 -0.2 -0.9 404.9 83.2 -3.0 -2.7
days date . .
1331 2025-10-16 1 074 3 4 29 1 0 0 0 354 109 0 1 0 3
1330 2025-10-15 1 130 3 4 26 1 0 0 0 306 109 0 1 0 3
1329 2025-10-14 1 120 3 4 23 1 0 0 0 304 100 0 1 0 3
1328 2025-10-13 1 111 3 4 21 1 0 0 0 306 90 0 1 0 3
1327 2025-10-12 1 086 2 5 21 1 0 0 0 298 81 0 1 0 3
1326 2025-10-11 1 079 3 7 20 1 0 0 1 317 74 0 1 0 8
1325 2025-10-10 1 026 3 7 22 1 0 0 1 328 67 0 0 0 8
1324 2025-10-09 1 010 3 7 21 1 0 0 1 361 67 0 0 0 7
1323 2025-10-08 989 3 5 21 1 0 0 1 363 63 0 0 0 7
1322 2025-10-07 984 2 4 19 1 0 0 0 345 57 0 0 0 7
1321 2025-10-06 971 2 4 17 1 0 0 0 323 51 0 0 0 7
1320 2025-10-05 964 2 3 17 1 0 0 0 318 52 0 0 0 7
1319 2025-10-04 963 3 1 22 1 0 0 0 354 59 0 0 0 8
1318 2025-10-03 997 3 1 25 1 0 0 0 373 73 0 0 0 8
1317 2025-10-02 1 000 3 1 29 1 0 0 0 361 76 0 0 0 6
1316 2025-10-01 996 3 1 29 1 0 0 0 370 81 0 0 0 6
1315 2025-09-30 990 3 1 33 1 0 0 1 390 94 0 1 0 6
1314 2025-09-29 997 3 1 37 1 0 0 1 402 108 0 1 0 6
1313 2025-09-28 1 003 3 1 41 2 1 0 1 429 113 0 1 0 6
1312 2025-09-27 986 3 1 40 2 1 0 1 398 114 0 1 0 0
days date . .
1331 2025-10-16 1 019 3 3 28 1 0 0 0 367 90 0 1 0 5
1330 2025-10-15 1 029 3 3 28 1 0 0 0 360 91 0 1 0 5
1329 2025-10-14 1 023 3 3 28 1 0 0 0 356 89 0 1 0 5
1328 2025-10-13 1 018 2 3 28 1 0 0 0 354 87 0 1 0 5
1327 2025-10-12 1 007 2 3 28 1 0 0 0 350 86 0 1 0 5
1326 2025-10-11 1 001 2 3 29 1 0 0 0 354 86 0 1 0 5
1325 2025-10-10 989 2 3 30 1 0 0 0 355 85 0 1 0 5
1324 2025-10-09 983 3 3 30 1 0 0 0 359 84 0 1 0 5
1323 2025-10-08 979 2 2 30 1 0 0 0 362 85 0 1 0 5
1322 2025-10-07 977 2 2 30 1 0 0 0 356 85 0 1 0 5
1321 2025-10-06 974 3 2 30 1 0 0 0 358 85 0 1 0 5
1320 2025-10-05 972 2 2 31 1 0 0 0 357 86 0 1 0 5
1319 2025-10-04 968 2 2 32 1 0 0 0 353 87 0 1 0 4
1318 2025-10-03 966 2 2 33 1 0 0 0 350 91 0 1 0 4
1317 2025-10-02 962 2 2 34 1 0 0 0 344 92 0 1 0 4
1316 2025-10-01 956 2 2 35 1 0 0 0 346 94 0 1 0 4
1315 2025-09-30 950 2 2 36 1 0 0 0 343 96 0 1 0 6
1314 2025-09-29 947 2 3 37 1 0 0 0 341 98 0 1 0 7
1313 2025-09-28 942 2 3 37 1 0 0 0 344 98 0 1 0 8
1312 2025-09-27 934 2 3 37 1 0 0 0 334 97 0 1 0 7
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