Loss Statistics

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history
from .. to trends (7-day µ)
2025 year-end: NWF, deficit & doom
2024 is key: the economics
Big Ticket Items
Refineries & Disruptions
Boycott
New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1383 2025-12-07 810 2 1 10 0 0 0 0 530 47 0 3 0 4
1382 2025-12-06 1 080 3 0 33 2 0 0 0 540 98 0 0 0 30
1381 2025-12-05 1 180 2 2 31 2 0 0 0 487 130 0 1 0 0
1380 2025-12-04 1 240 0 1 34 2 1 0 0 424 94 0 2 0 0
1379 2025-12-03 1 140 3 3 29 1 0 0 0 245 125 0 0 0 0
1378 2025-12-02 1 200 6 3 12 3 0 0 0 90 47 0 1 0 0
1377 2025-12-01 1 110 0 1 14 0 0 0 0 51 58 0 1 0 0
1376 2025-11-30 1 060 1 6 14 0 0 0 0 239 71 0 0 0 0
1375 2025-11-29 1 160 5 14 7 2 0 0 0 508 49 0 0 0 29
1374 2025-11-28 910 1 15 3 0 0 0 0 106 64 0 2 0 0
1373 2025-11-27 1 100 7 15 21 0 0 0 0 63 48 0 0 0 0
1372 2025-11-26 1 140 1 3 21 1 0 0 1 214 109 0 1 0 0
1371 2025-11-25 980 4 1 44 0 0 0 2 743 124 0 1 0 14
1370 2025-11-24 1 120 2 4 18 0 0 0 2 448 112 0 3 0 0
1369 2025-11-23 1 190 3 5 41 0 0 0 0 431 84 0 0 0 0
1368 2025-11-22 920 2 8 26 2 0 0 0 496 80 0 1 0 0
1367 2025-11-21 1 170 4 7 9 1 0 0 1 222 74 0 0 0 0
1366 2025-11-20 1 050 0 3 20 0 0 0 0 150 65 0 0 0 0
1365 2025-11-19 890 1 2 19 0 0 0 0 384 68 0 1 0 41
1364 2025-11-18 850 1 1 12 1 0 0 0 293 56 0 1 0 0
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days date . .
1383 2025-12-07 1 181 660 11 398 23 634 34 729 1 565 13 6 1 238 88 533 69 439 0 4 229 31 819
1382 2025-12-06 1 180 850 11 396 23 633 34 719 1 565 13 6 1 238 88 003 69 392 0 4 226 31 815
1381 2025-12-05 1 179 770 11 393 23 633 34 686 1 563 13 6 1 238 87 463 69 294 0 4 226 31 785
1380 2025-12-04 1 178 590 11 391 23 631 34 655 1 561 13 6 1 238 86 976 69 164 0 4 225 31 785
1379 2025-12-03 1 177 350 11 391 23 630 34 621 1 559 12 6 1 238 86 552 69 070 0 4 223 31 785
1378 2025-12-02 1 176 210 11 388 23 627 34 592 1 558 12 6 1 238 86 307 68 945 0 4 223 31 785
1377 2025-12-01 1 175 010 11 382 23 624 34 580 1 555 12 6 1 238 86 217 68 898 0 4 222 31 785
1376 2025-11-30 1 173 900 11 382 23 623 34 566 1 555 12 6 1 238 86 166 68 840 0 4 221 31 785
1375 2025-11-29 1 172 840 11 381 23 617 34 552 1 555 12 6 1 238 85 927 68 769 0 4 221 31 785
1374 2025-11-28 1 171 680 11 376 23 603 34 545 1 553 12 6 1 238 85 419 68 720 0 4 221 31 756
1373 2025-11-27 1 170 770 11 375 23 588 34 542 1 553 12 6 1 238 85 313 68 656 0 4 219 31 756
1372 2025-11-26 1 169 670 11 368 23 573 34 521 1 553 12 6 1 238 85 250 68 608 0 4 219 31 756
1371 2025-11-25 1 168 530 11 367 23 570 34 500 1 552 12 6 1 237 85 036 68 499 0 4 218 31 756
1370 2025-11-24 1 167 550 11 363 23 569 34 456 1 552 12 6 1 235 84 293 68 375 0 4 217 31 742
1369 2025-11-23 1 166 430 11 361 23 565 34 438 1 552 12 6 1 233 83 845 68 263 0 4 214 31 742
1368 2025-11-22 1 165 240 11 358 23 560 34 397 1 552 12 6 1 233 83 414 68 179 0 4 214 31 742
1367 2025-11-21 1 164 320 11 356 23 552 34 371 1 550 12 6 1 233 82 918 68 099 0 4 213 31 742
1366 2025-11-20 1 163 150 11 352 23 545 34 362 1 549 12 6 1 232 82 696 68 025 0 4 213 31 742
1365 2025-11-19 1 162 100 11 352 23 542 34 342 1 549 12 6 1 232 82 546 67 960 0 4 213 31 742
1364 2025-11-18 1 161 210 11 351 23 540 34 323 1 549 12 6 1 232 82 162 67 892 0 4 212 31 701
days date . .
1383 2025-12-07 853.0 8.2 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 64.0 50.1 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1382 2025-12-06 853.0 8.2 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 63.7 50.2 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1381 2025-12-05 852.9 8.3 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 63.3 50.1 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1380 2025-12-04 852.6 8.3 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 63.0 50.1 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1379 2025-12-03 852.3 8.3 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 62.8 50.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1378 2025-12-02 852.1 8.3 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 62.6 50.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1377 2025-12-01 851.9 8.3 17.2 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 62.6 50.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1376 2025-11-30 851.7 8.3 17.2 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 62.6 50.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1375 2025-11-29 851.5 8.3 17.2 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 62.5 50.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1374 2025-11-28 851.3 8.3 17.2 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 62.2 50.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1373 2025-11-27 851.3 8.3 17.2 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 62.1 49.9 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1372 2025-11-26 851.1 8.3 17.2 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 62.1 49.9 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1371 2025-11-25 850.9 8.3 17.2 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 62.0 49.9 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1370 2025-11-24 850.8 8.3 17.2 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 61.5 49.8 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1369 2025-11-23 850.6 8.3 17.2 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 61.2 49.8 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1368 2025-11-22 850.3 8.3 17.2 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 61.0 49.8 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1367 2025-11-21 850.3 8.3 17.2 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 60.7 49.8 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1366 2025-11-20 850.1 8.3 17.2 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 60.5 49.7 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1365 2025-11-19 849.9 8.3 17.2 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 60.5 49.7 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1364 2025-11-18 849.9 8.3 17.3 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 60.2 49.7 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.7
days date . .
1383 2025-12-07 -43.0 -6.2 -16.1 -15.1 -1.1 -0.9 466.0 -3.1 -0.1 1.2
1382 2025-12-06 227.0 -5.2 -17.1 7.9 0.9 -0.9 476.3 47.8 -3.1 27.2
1381 2025-12-05 327.1 -6.3 -15.1 5.9 0.9 -0.9 423.7 79.9 -2.1 -2.8
1380 2025-12-04 387.4 -8.3 -16.1 8.9 0.9 -0.9 361.0 43.9 -1.1 -2.8
1379 2025-12-03 287.7 -5.3 -14.1 3.9 -0.1 -0.9 182.2 75.0 -3.1 -2.8
1378 2025-12-02 347.9 -2.3 -14.1 -13.1 1.9 -0.9 27.4 -3.0 -2.1 -2.8
1377 2025-12-01 258.1 -8.3 -16.2 -11.1 -1.1 -0.9 -11.6 8.0 -2.1 -2.8
1376 2025-11-30 208.3 -7.3 -11.2 -11.1 -1.1 -0.9 176.4 21.0 -3.1 -2.8
1375 2025-11-29 308.5 -3.3 -3.2 -18.1 0.9 -0.9 445.5 -1.0 -3.1 26.2
1374 2025-11-28 58.7 -7.3 -2.2 -22.1 -1.1 -0.9 43.8 14.0 -1.1 -2.8
1373 2025-11-27 248.7 -1.3 -2.2 -4.2 -1.1 -0.9 0.9 -1.9 -3.1 -2.8
1372 2025-11-26 288.9 -7.3 -14.2 -4.2 -0.1 0.1 151.9 59.1 -2.1 -2.8
1371 2025-11-25 129.1 -4.3 -16.2 18.8 -1.1 1.1 681.0 74.1 -2.1 11.2
1370 2025-11-24 269.2 -6.3 -13.2 -7.2 -1.1 1.1 386.5 62.2 -0.1 -2.8
1369 2025-11-23 339.4 -5.3 -12.2 15.8 -1.1 -0.9 369.8 34.2 -3.1 -2.8
1368 2025-11-22 69.7 -6.3 -9.2 0.9 0.9 -0.9 435.0 30.2 -2.1 -2.8
1367 2025-11-21 319.7 -4.3 -10.2 -16.1 -0.1 0.1 161.3 24.2 -3.1 -2.8
1366 2025-11-20 199.9 -8.3 -14.2 -5.2 -1.1 -0.9 89.5 15.3 -3.1 -2.8
1365 2025-11-19 40.1 -7.3 -15.2 -6.2 -1.1 -0.9 323.5 18.3 -2.1 38.2
1364 2025-11-18 0.1 -7.3 -16.3 -13.2 -0.1 -0.9 232.8 6.3 -2.1 -2.7
days date . .
1383 2025-12-07 1 109 2 2 23 1 0 0 0 338 86 0 1 0 5
1382 2025-12-06 1 144 2 2 24 1 0 0 0 297 89 0 1 0 4
1381 2025-12-05 1 156 2 4 20 1 0 0 0 292 82 0 1 0 4
1380 2025-12-04 1 117 2 6 16 1 0 0 0 238 73 0 1 0 4
1379 2025-12-03 1 097 3 8 14 1 0 0 0 186 66 0 1 0 4
1378 2025-12-02 1 097 3 8 13 1 0 0 0 182 64 0 1 0 4
1377 2025-12-01 1 066 3 8 18 0 0 0 0 275 75 0 1 0 6
1376 2025-11-30 1 067 3 8 18 0 0 0 1 332 82 0 1 0 6
1375 2025-11-29 1 086 3 8 22 0 0 0 1 359 84 0 1 0 6
1374 2025-11-28 1 051 3 7 25 0 0 0 1 357 89 0 1 0 2
1373 2025-11-27 1 089 3 6 26 1 0 0 1 374 90 0 1 0 2
1372 2025-11-26 1 081 2 4 26 1 0 0 1 386 93 0 1 0 2
1371 2025-11-25 1 046 2 4 25 0 0 0 1 411 87 0 1 0 8
1370 2025-11-24 1 027 2 4 21 1 0 0 0 346 77 0 1 0 6
1369 2025-11-23 1 004 2 4 20 1 0 0 0 324 67 0 0 0 6
1368 2025-11-22 1 000 1 3 17 1 0 0 1 293 86 0 11 0 6
1367 2025-11-21 991 2 3 17 1 0 0 1 281 84 0 11 0 6
1366 2025-11-20 967 2 4 18 1 0 0 1 319 86 0 11 0 8
1365 2025-11-19 966 2 4 20 1 0 0 1 361 90 0 11 0 8
1364 2025-11-18 1 007 2 6 19 1 0 0 1 326 93 0 11 0 2
days date . .
1383 2025-12-07 1 053 2 5 20 1 0 0 0 318 84 0 3 0 5
1382 2025-12-06 1 065 2 5 20 1 0 0 1 308 85 0 3 0 5
1381 2025-12-05 1 068 2 5 20 1 0 0 1 299 84 0 3 0 4
1380 2025-12-04 1 068 2 5 19 1 0 0 1 288 82 0 3 0 4
1379 2025-12-03 1 057 2 5 19 1 0 0 1 287 82 0 3 0 4
1378 2025-12-02 1 047 2 5 19 1 0 0 1 293 81 0 3 0 4
1377 2025-12-01 1 045 2 5 20 1 0 0 1 303 83 0 3 0 4
1376 2025-11-30 1 040 2 5 21 1 0 0 1 313 85 0 3 0 4
1375 2025-11-29 1 034 3 5 20 1 0 0 1 317 85 0 3 0 4
1374 2025-11-28 1 028 3 5 21 1 0 0 1 321 87 0 3 0 4
1373 2025-11-27 1 030 3 4 22 1 0 0 1 329 89 0 3 0 4
1372 2025-11-26 1 031 2 4 22 1 0 0 1 337 90 0 3 0 4
1371 2025-11-25 1 029 3 5 22 1 0 0 1 334 91 0 3 0 4
1370 2025-11-24 1 023 3 5 21 1 0 0 1 327 91 0 3 0 3
1369 2025-11-23 1 015 3 5 21 1 0 0 1 319 90 0 3 0 3
1368 2025-11-22 1 006 3 5 20 1 0 0 1 317 90 0 3 0 3
1367 2025-11-21 1 006 3 5 21 1 0 0 1 315 102 0 7 0 3
1366 2025-11-20 997 3 5 21 1 0 0 1 329 103 0 7 0 4
1365 2025-11-19 997 3 5 21 1 0 0 1 329 104 0 7 0 4
1364 2025-11-18 1 005 3 7 21 1 0 0 1 324 107 0 7 0 3
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