Loss Statistics

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from .. to trends (7-day µ)
2025 year-end: NWF, deficit & doom
2024 is key: the economics
Big Ticket Items
Refineries & Disruptions
Boycott
New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1397 2025-12-21 1 130 2 1 11 0 0 0 0 116 68 0 1 0 0
1396 2025-12-20 1 130 2 1 11 0 0 0 0 116 68 0 1 0 0
1395 2025-12-19 1 090 0 1 37 1 0 0 0 346 130 0 1 0 0
1394 2025-12-18 1 220 1 10 18 1 0 0 0 426 111 0 0 0 0
1393 2025-12-17 950 5 0 27 2 0 0 1 330 119 0 0 0 0
1392 2025-12-16 1 730 6 21 33 1 0 0 1 167 179 0 1 0 0
1391 2025-12-15 1 150 9 6 67 0 0 0 0 442 177 0 0 1 0
1390 2025-12-14 980 2 10 64 3 0 0 2 653 207 0 0 0 0
1389 2025-12-13 710 1 7 9 0 0 0 1 440 81 0 0 0 13
1388 2025-12-12 1 300 3 9 24 1 0 0 2 283 103 0 2 0 0
1387 2025-12-11 1 400 2 6 16 2 1 0 3 253 107 0 2 0 2
1386 2025-12-10 1 460 0 7 23 1 0 0 0 82 157 0 3 0 0
1385 2025-12-09 930 0 2 27 1 0 0 0 432 61 0 1 0 0
1384 2025-12-08 930 0 2 27 1 0 0 0 432 61 0 1 0 0
1383 2025-12-07 810 2 1 10 0 0 0 0 530 47 0 3 0 4
1382 2025-12-06 1 080 3 0 33 2 0 0 0 540 98 0 0 0 30
1381 2025-12-05 1 180 2 2 31 2 0 0 0 487 130 0 1 0 0
1380 2025-12-04 1 240 0 1 34 2 1 0 0 424 94 0 2 0 0
1379 2025-12-03 1 140 3 3 29 1 0 0 0 245 125 0 0 0 0
1378 2025-12-02 1 200 6 3 12 3 0 0 0 90 47 0 1 0 0
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days date . .
1397 2025-12-21 1 197 770 11 431 23 717 35 123 1 579 14 6 1 248 93 051 71 068 0 4 242 32 834
1396 2025-12-20 1 196 640 11 429 23 716 35 112 1 579 14 6 1 248 92 935 71 000 0 4 241 32 834
1395 2025-12-19 1 195 510 11 427 23 715 35 101 1 579 14 6 1 248 92 819 70 932 0 4 240 32 834
1394 2025-12-18 1 194 420 11 427 23 714 35 064 1 578 14 6 1 248 92 473 70 802 0 4 239 32 834
1393 2025-12-17 1 193 200 11 426 23 704 35 046 1 577 14 6 1 248 92 047 70 691 0 4 239 32 834
1392 2025-12-16 1 192 250 11 421 23 704 35 019 1 575 14 6 1 247 91 717 70 572 0 4 239 32 834
1391 2025-12-15 1 190 520 11 415 23 683 34 986 1 574 14 6 1 246 91 550 70 393 0 4 238 32 834
1390 2025-12-14 1 189 370 11 406 23 677 34 919 1 574 14 6 1 246 91 108 70 216 0 4 238 31 834
1389 2025-12-13 1 188 390 11 404 23 667 34 855 1 571 14 6 1 244 90 455 70 009 0 4 238 31 834
1388 2025-12-12 1 187 680 11 403 23 660 34 846 1 571 14 6 1 243 90 015 69 928 0 4 238 31 821
1387 2025-12-11 1 186 380 11 400 23 651 34 822 1 570 14 6 1 241 89 732 69 825 0 4 236 31 821
1386 2025-12-10 1 184 980 11 398 23 645 34 806 1 568 13 6 1 238 89 479 69 718 0 4 234 31 819
1385 2025-12-09 1 183 520 11 398 23 638 34 783 1 567 13 6 1 238 89 397 69 561 0 4 231 31 819
1384 2025-12-08 1 182 590 11 398 23 636 34 756 1 566 13 6 1 238 88 965 69 500 0 4 230 31 819
1383 2025-12-07 1 181 660 11 398 23 634 34 729 1 565 13 6 1 238 88 533 69 439 0 4 229 31 819
1382 2025-12-06 1 180 850 11 396 23 633 34 719 1 565 13 6 1 238 88 003 69 392 0 4 226 31 815
1381 2025-12-05 1 179 770 11 393 23 633 34 686 1 563 13 6 1 238 87 463 69 294 0 4 226 31 785
1380 2025-12-04 1 178 590 11 391 23 631 34 655 1 561 13 6 1 238 86 976 69 164 0 4 225 31 785
1379 2025-12-03 1 177 350 11 391 23 630 34 621 1 559 12 6 1 238 86 552 69 070 0 4 223 31 785
1378 2025-12-02 1 176 210 11 388 23 627 34 592 1 558 12 6 1 238 86 307 68 945 0 4 223 31 785
days date . .
1397 2025-12-21 856.0 8.2 17.0 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 66.6 50.8 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1396 2025-12-20 855.8 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 66.6 50.8 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1395 2025-12-19 855.6 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 66.5 50.8 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1394 2025-12-18 855.4 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 66.3 50.7 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1393 2025-12-17 855.1 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 66.1 50.7 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1392 2025-12-16 855.1 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 65.9 50.6 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1391 2025-12-15 854.5 8.2 17.0 25.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 65.8 50.5 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1390 2025-12-14 854.2 8.2 17.0 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 65.5 50.5 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1389 2025-12-13 854.1 8.2 17.0 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 65.1 50.3 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1388 2025-12-12 854.3 8.2 17.0 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 64.8 50.3 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1387 2025-12-11 853.9 8.2 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 64.7 50.3 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1386 2025-12-10 853.5 8.2 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 64.6 50.2 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1385 2025-12-09 853.1 8.2 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 64.5 50.2 0.1 3.0 0.0 2.8
1384 2025-12-08 853.0 8.2 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 64.3 50.2 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1383 2025-12-07 853.0 8.2 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 64.0 50.1 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1382 2025-12-06 853.0 8.2 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 63.7 50.2 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1381 2025-12-05 852.9 8.3 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 63.3 50.1 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1380 2025-12-04 852.6 8.3 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 63.0 50.1 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1379 2025-12-03 852.3 8.3 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 62.8 50.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
1378 2025-12-02 852.1 8.3 17.1 25.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 62.6 50.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 2.8
days date . .
1397 2025-12-21 274.0 -6.2 -16.0 -14.1 -1.1 -0.9 49.4 17.2 -2.0 -2.8
1396 2025-12-20 274.2 -6.2 -16.0 -14.2 -1.1 -0.9 49.4 17.2 -2.0 -2.8
1395 2025-12-19 234.4 -8.2 -16.0 11.8 -0.1 -0.9 279.5 79.2 -2.0 -2.8
1394 2025-12-18 364.6 -7.2 -7.0 -7.2 -0.1 -0.9 359.7 60.3 -3.0 -2.8
1393 2025-12-17 94.9 -3.2 -17.0 1.8 0.9 0.1 263.9 68.3 -3.0 -2.8
1392 2025-12-16 874.9 -2.2 4.0 7.8 -0.1 0.1 101.1 128.4 -2.0 -2.8
1391 2025-12-15 295.5 0.8 -11.0 41.8 -1.1 -0.9 376.2 126.5 -3.0 -2.8
1390 2025-12-14 125.8 -6.2 -7.0 38.9 1.9 1.1 587.5 156.5 -3.0 -2.8
1389 2025-12-13 -144.1 -7.2 -10.0 -16.1 -1.1 0.1 374.9 30.7 -3.0 10.2
1388 2025-12-12 445.7 -5.2 -8.0 -1.1 -0.1 1.1 218.2 52.7 -1.0 -2.8
1387 2025-12-11 546.1 -6.2 -11.1 -9.1 0.9 2.1 188.3 56.7 -1.0 -0.8
1386 2025-12-10 606.5 -8.2 -10.1 -2.1 -0.1 -0.9 17.4 106.8 0.0 -2.8
1385 2025-12-09 76.9 -8.2 -15.1 1.9 -0.1 -0.9 367.5 10.8 -2.0 -2.8
1384 2025-12-08 77.0 -8.2 -15.1 1.9 -0.1 -0.9 367.7 10.8 -2.1 -2.8
1383 2025-12-07 -43.0 -6.2 -16.1 -15.1 -1.1 -0.9 466.0 -3.1 -0.1 1.2
1382 2025-12-06 227.0 -5.2 -17.1 7.9 0.9 -0.9 476.3 47.8 -3.1 27.2
1381 2025-12-05 327.1 -6.3 -15.1 5.9 0.9 -0.9 423.7 79.9 -2.1 -2.8
1380 2025-12-04 387.4 -8.3 -16.1 8.9 0.9 -0.9 361.0 43.9 -1.1 -2.8
1379 2025-12-03 287.7 -5.3 -14.1 3.9 -0.1 -0.9 182.2 75.0 -3.1 -2.8
1378 2025-12-02 347.9 -2.3 -14.1 -13.1 1.9 -0.9 27.4 -3.0 -2.1 -2.8
days date . .
1397 2025-12-21 1 200 4 6 29 1 0 0 0 278 122 0 1 0 0
1396 2025-12-20 1 179 4 7 37 1 0 0 1 354 142 0 0 0 0
1395 2025-12-19 1 119 3 8 36 1 0 0 1 401 143 0 0 0 2
1394 2025-12-18 1 149 4 9 35 1 0 0 1 392 140 0 0 0 2
1393 2025-12-17 1 174 4 8 34 1 0 0 1 367 139 0 1 0 2
1392 2025-12-16 1 247 3 9 34 1 0 0 1 331 144 0 1 0 2
1391 2025-12-15 1 133 2 7 33 1 0 0 1 369 128 0 1 0 2
1390 2025-12-14 1 101 1 6 27 1 0 0 1 368 111 0 1 0 2
1389 2025-12-13 1 077 1 5 19 1 0 0 1 350 88 0 2 0 3
1388 2025-12-12 1 130 1 4 23 1 0 0 1 365 91 0 2 0 5
1387 2025-12-11 1 113 1 3 24 1 0 0 0 394 94 0 2 0 5
1386 2025-12-10 1 090 1 2 26 1 0 0 0 418 93 0 2 0 5
1385 2025-12-09 1 044 1 2 27 1 0 0 0 441 88 0 1 0 5
1384 2025-12-08 1 083 2 2 25 2 0 0 0 393 86 0 1 0 5
1383 2025-12-07 1 109 2 2 23 1 0 0 0 338 86 0 1 0 5
1382 2025-12-06 1 144 2 2 24 1 0 0 0 297 89 0 1 0 4
1381 2025-12-05 1 156 2 4 20 1 0 0 0 292 82 0 1 0 4
1380 2025-12-04 1 117 2 6 16 1 0 0 0 238 73 0 1 0 4
1379 2025-12-03 1 097 3 8 14 1 0 0 0 186 66 0 1 0 4
1378 2025-12-02 1 097 3 8 13 1 0 0 0 182 64 0 1 0 4
days date . .
1397 2025-12-21 1 115 3 6 25 1 0 0 1 338 99 0 1 0 3
1396 2025-12-20 1 116 3 6 25 1 0 0 1 341 99 0 1 0 3
1395 2025-12-19 1 114 3 6 25 1 0 0 1 342 99 0 1 0 3
1394 2025-12-18 1 107 3 6 25 1 0 0 1 344 97 0 1 0 4
1393 2025-12-17 1 095 3 6 25 1 0 0 1 339 95 0 1 0 4
1392 2025-12-16 1 095 2 6 24 1 0 0 1 338 93 0 1 0 4
1391 2025-12-15 1 076 2 5 24 1 0 0 1 340 94 0 3 0 4
1390 2025-12-14 1 066 2 5 22 1 0 0 1 339 90 0 3 0 4
1389 2025-12-13 1 067 2 5 21 1 0 0 1 333 86 0 3 0 5
1388 2025-12-12 1 078 2 5 22 1 0 0 1 333 87 0 3 0 4
1387 2025-12-11 1 074 2 5 21 1 0 0 1 328 86 0 3 0 4
1386 2025-12-10 1 061 2 5 21 1 0 0 0 325 86 0 3 0 4
1385 2025-12-09 1 046 2 5 21 1 0 0 0 330 83 0 3 0 4
1384 2025-12-08 1 051 2 5 20 1 0 0 0 317 83 0 3 0 4
1383 2025-12-07 1 053 2 5 20 1 0 0 0 318 84 0 3 0 5
1382 2025-12-06 1 065 2 5 20 1 0 0 1 308 85 0 3 0 5
1381 2025-12-05 1 068 2 5 20 1 0 0 1 299 84 0 3 0 4
1380 2025-12-04 1 068 2 5 19 1 0 0 1 288 82 0 3 0 4
1379 2025-12-03 1 057 2 5 19 1 0 0 1 287 82 0 3 0 4
1378 2025-12-02 1 047 2 5 19 1 0 0 1 293 81 0 3 0 4
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