Loss Statistics

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from .. to trends (7-day µ)
2024 is key: the economics
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Refineries & Disruptions
Boycott
New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1104 2025-03-03 1 340 3 8 45 0 0 0 1 86 101 0 0 0 0
1103 2025-03-02 1 350 11 16 60 0 0 0 2 61 109 0 0 0 0
1102 2025-03-01 1 110 8 25 51 2 0 0 3 192 117 0 5 0 0
1101 2025-02-28 1 050 11 15 61 1 0 0 1 128 107 0 0 0 0
1100 2025-02-27 1 060 13 17 54 1 0 0 0 172 140 0 4 0 0
1099 2025-02-26 1 150 8 13 69 0 0 0 1 141 140 0 1 0 0
1098 2025-02-25 1 170 19 15 34 0 0 0 2 194 120 0 0 0 0
1097 2025-02-24 1 300 5 11 26 0 0 0 2 122 138 0 2 0 0
1096 2025-02-23 1 050 9 6 44 3 0 0 0 217 110 0 0 0 0
1095 2025-02-22 1 180 7 12 54 1 0 0 1 117 91 0 3 0 0
1094 2025-02-21 1 140 15 9 66 0 0 0 0 155 139 0 1 0 0
1093 2025-02-20 1 280 12 18 52 4 0 0 2 135 143 0 1 0 0
1092 2025-02-19 1 190 14 14 63 3 0 0 6 160 136 0 0 0 0
1091 2025-02-18 1 300 19 23 72 3 0 0 0 175 146 0 1 0 0
1090 2025-02-17 1 170 12 12 53 2 0 0 1 181 74 0 1 0 1
1089 2025-02-16 1 530 16 52 37 0 0 0 0 128 149 0 1 0 0
1088 2025-02-15 1 730 5 84 11 0 0 0 0 36 77 0 2 0 0
1087 2025-02-14 1 180 11 17 59 1 0 0 0 117 127 0 2 0 0
1086 2025-02-13 1 200 17 16 81 4 0 0 3 152 152 0 1 0 0
1085 2025-02-12 1 250 17 23 58 2 0 0 2 153 168 0 2 0 6
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days date . .
1104 2025-03-03 877 760 10 255 21 268 23 983 1 315 368 330 1 076 27 720 39 244 80 3 754 31 2 882
1103 2025-03-02 876 420 10 252 21 260 23 938 1 315 368 330 1 075 27 634 39 143 80 3 754 31 2 882
1102 2025-03-01 875 070 10 241 21 244 23 878 1 315 368 330 1 073 27 573 39 034 80 3 754 31 2 882
1101 2025-02-28 873 960 10 233 21 219 23 827 1 313 368 330 1 070 27 381 38 917 80 3 749 31 2 882
1100 2025-02-27 872 910 10 222 21 204 23 766 1 312 368 330 1 069 27 253 38 810 80 3 749 31 2 882
1099 2025-02-26 871 850 10 209 21 187 23 712 1 311 368 330 1 069 27 081 38 670 80 3 745 31 2 882
1098 2025-02-25 870 700 10 201 21 174 23 643 1 311 368 330 1 068 26 940 38 530 80 3 744 31 2 882
1097 2025-02-24 869 530 10 182 21 159 23 609 1 311 368 330 1 066 26 746 38 410 80 3 744 31 2 882
1096 2025-02-23 868 230 10 177 21 148 23 583 1 311 368 330 1 064 26 624 38 272 80 3 742 31 2 882
1095 2025-02-22 867 180 10 168 21 142 23 539 1 308 368 330 1 064 26 407 38 162 80 3 742 31 2 882
1094 2025-02-21 866 000 10 161 21 130 23 485 1 307 368 330 1 063 26 290 38 071 80 3 739 31 2 882
1093 2025-02-20 864 860 10 146 21 121 23 419 1 307 368 330 1 063 26 135 37 932 80 3 738 31 2 882
1092 2025-02-19 863 580 10 134 21 103 23 367 1 303 368 330 1 061 26 000 37 789 80 3 737 31 2 882
1091 2025-02-18 862 390 10 120 21 089 23 304 1 300 368 330 1 055 25 840 37 653 80 3 737 31 2 882
1090 2025-02-17 861 090 10 101 21 066 23 232 1 297 368 330 1 055 25 665 37 507 80 3 736 31 2 882
1089 2025-02-16 859 920 10 089 21 054 23 179 1 295 368 330 1 054 25 484 37 433 80 3 735 31 2 881
1088 2025-02-15 858 390 10 073 21 002 23 142 1 295 368 330 1 054 25 356 37 284 80 3 734 31 2 881
1087 2025-02-14 856 660 10 068 20 918 23 131 1 295 368 330 1 054 25 320 37 207 80 3 732 31 2 881
1086 2025-02-13 855 480 10 057 20 901 23 072 1 294 368 330 1 054 25 203 37 080 80 3 730 31 2 881
1085 2025-02-12 854 280 10 040 20 885 22 991 1 290 368 330 1 051 25 051 36 928 80 3 729 31 2 881
days date . .
1104 2025-03-03 795.1 9.3 19.3 21.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.1 35.5 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1103 2025-03-02 794.6 9.3 19.3 21.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.0 35.4 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1102 2025-03-01 794.1 9.3 19.3 21.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.0 35.3 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1101 2025-02-28 793.8 9.3 19.3 21.6 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 24.8 35.3 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1100 2025-02-27 793.6 9.3 19.3 21.6 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 24.8 35.2 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1099 2025-02-26 793.3 9.3 19.3 21.6 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 24.6 35.1 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1098 2025-02-25 793.0 9.3 19.3 21.5 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 24.5 35.0 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1097 2025-02-24 792.6 9.3 19.3 21.5 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 24.4 34.9 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1096 2025-02-23 792.2 9.3 19.3 21.5 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 24.3 34.8 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1095 2025-02-22 791.9 9.3 19.3 21.5 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 24.1 34.8 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1094 2025-02-21 791.6 9.3 19.3 21.5 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 24.0 34.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1093 2025-02-20 791.3 9.3 19.3 21.4 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 23.9 34.6 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1092 2025-02-19 790.8 9.3 19.3 21.4 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 23.8 34.5 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1091 2025-02-18 790.5 9.3 19.3 21.4 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 23.7 34.4 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1090 2025-02-17 790.0 9.3 19.3 21.3 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 23.5 34.3 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1089 2025-02-16 789.6 9.3 19.3 21.3 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 23.4 34.3 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1088 2025-02-15 789.0 9.3 19.3 21.3 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 23.3 34.2 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1087 2025-02-14 788.1 9.3 19.2 21.3 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 23.3 34.2 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1086 2025-02-13 787.7 9.3 19.2 21.2 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 23.2 34.1 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1085 2025-02-12 787.4 9.3 19.2 21.2 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 23.1 34.0 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
days date . .
1104 2025-03-03 544.9 -6.3 -11.3 23.3 -1.2 0.0 60.9 65.5 -3.4 -2.6
1103 2025-03-02 555.4 1.7 -3.3 38.3 -1.2 1.0 36.0 73.6 -3.4 -2.6
1102 2025-03-01 315.9 -1.3 5.7 29.3 0.8 2.0 167.0 81.7 1.6 -2.6
1101 2025-02-28 256.2 1.7 -4.3 39.4 -0.2 0.0 103.2 71.7 -3.4 -2.6
1100 2025-02-27 266.4 3.7 -2.3 32.4 -0.2 -1.0 147.2 104.8 0.6 -2.6
1099 2025-02-26 356.7 -1.3 -6.3 47.4 -1.2 0.0 116.4 104.9 -2.4 -2.6
1098 2025-02-25 377.0 9.7 -4.3 12.5 -1.2 1.0 169.5 85.0 -3.4 -2.6
1097 2025-02-24 507.4 -4.3 -8.3 4.5 -1.2 1.0 97.6 103.1 -1.4 -2.6
1096 2025-02-23 257.8 -0.3 -13.3 22.5 1.8 -1.0 192.7 75.2 -3.4 -2.6
1095 2025-02-22 388.1 -2.3 -7.3 32.5 -0.2 0.0 92.9 56.2 -0.4 -2.6
1094 2025-02-21 348.4 5.7 -10.3 44.5 -1.2 -1.0 131.0 104.3 -2.4 -2.6
1093 2025-02-20 488.7 2.7 -1.3 30.6 2.8 1.0 111.1 108.4 -2.4 -2.6
1092 2025-02-19 399.2 4.7 -5.3 41.6 1.8 5.0 136.2 101.5 -3.4 -2.6
1091 2025-02-18 509.5 9.7 3.7 50.6 1.8 -1.0 151.3 111.6 -2.4 -2.6
1090 2025-02-17 380.0 2.7 -7.3 31.7 0.8 0.0 157.5 39.7 -2.4 -1.6
1089 2025-02-16 740.4 6.7 32.7 15.7 -1.2 -1.0 104.6 114.7 -2.4 -2.6
1088 2025-02-15 941.0 -4.3 64.7 -10.3 -1.2 -1.0 12.7 42.8 -1.4 -2.6
1087 2025-02-14 391.9 1.7 -2.2 37.7 -0.2 -1.0 93.7 92.8 -1.4 -2.6
1086 2025-02-13 412.3 7.7 -3.2 59.8 2.8 2.0 128.8 117.9 -2.4 -2.6
1085 2025-02-12 462.6 7.7 3.8 36.8 0.8 1.0 129.9 134.0 -1.4 3.4
days date . .
1104 2025-03-03 1 176 10 16 53 1 0 0 1 139 119 0 1 0 0
1103 2025-03-02 1 170 11 16 51 1 0 0 2 144 124 0 2 0 0
1102 2025-03-01 1 127 10 15 48 1 0 0 1 167 125 0 2 0 0
1101 2025-02-28 1 137 10 13 49 1 0 0 1 156 121 0 1 0 0
1100 2025-02-27 1 150 11 12 50 1 0 0 1 160 125 0 2 0 0
1099 2025-02-26 1 181 11 12 49 1 0 0 1 154 126 0 1 0 0
1098 2025-02-25 1 187 12 12 48 2 0 0 2 157 125 0 1 0 0
1097 2025-02-24 1 206 12 13 54 2 0 0 2 154 129 0 1 0 0
1096 2025-02-23 1 187 13 13 58 2 0 0 1 163 120 0 1 0 0
1095 2025-02-22 1 256 14 20 57 2 0 0 1 150 125 0 1 0 0
1094 2025-02-21 1 334 13 30 51 2 0 0 1 139 123 0 1 0 0
1093 2025-02-20 1 340 13 31 50 2 0 0 1 133 122 0 1 0 0
1092 2025-02-19 1 329 13 31 54 2 0 0 1 136 123 0 1 0 0
1091 2025-02-18 1 337 14 32 53 2 0 0 1 135 128 0 1 0 1
1090 2025-02-17 1 316 12 33 50 1 0 0 1 133 124 0 1 0 1
1089 2025-02-16 1 347 13 36 49 1 0 0 1 126 138 0 1 0 1
1088 2025-02-15 1 296 12 31 49 1 0 0 1 127 132 0 1 0 1
1087 2025-02-14 1 257 12 21 51 1 0 0 1 134 139 0 1 0 1
1086 2025-02-13 1 261 12 22 47 2 0 0 1 132 134 0 1 0 1
1085 2025-02-12 1 281 11 22 40 1 0 0 1 127 126 0 1 0 1
days date . .
1104 2025-03-03 1 247 12 20 50 1 0 0 1 132 123 0 1 0 0
1103 2025-03-02 1 246 12 21 50 1 0 0 1 132 123 0 1 0 0
1102 2025-03-01 1 249 12 21 49 1 0 0 1 134 122 0 1 0 0
1101 2025-02-28 1 266 11 20 49 1 0 0 1 130 121 0 1 0 0
1100 2025-02-27 1 273 11 21 47 1 0 0 1 127 120 0 1 0 0
1099 2025-02-26 1 290 11 21 46 1 0 0 1 123 119 0 1 0 0
1098 2025-02-25 1 297 11 21 45 1 0 0 1 121 117 0 1 0 0
1097 2025-02-24 1 306 10 21 44 1 0 0 1 117 115 0 1 0 0
1096 2025-02-23 1 320 11 20 44 1 0 0 1 115 112 0 1 0 0
1095 2025-02-22 1 340 11 21 43 1 0 0 1 109 111 0 1 0 0
1094 2025-02-21 1 351 10 21 42 1 0 0 1 107 111 0 1 0 0
1093 2025-02-20 1 357 10 22 42 1 0 0 1 104 109 0 1 0 0
1092 2025-02-19 1 380 10 21 43 1 0 0 1 104 109 0 1 0 0
1091 2025-02-18 1 393 10 21 42 1 0 0 1 103 111 0 2 0 0
1090 2025-02-17 1 406 10 22 41 1 0 0 1 103 109 0 2 0 0
1089 2025-02-16 1 420 10 22 39 1 0 0 1 98 109 0 2 0 0
1088 2025-02-15 1 414 9 21 39 1 0 0 1 94 107 0 2 0 0
1087 2025-02-14 1 412 9 19 39 1 0 0 1 95 108 0 2 0 0
1086 2025-02-13 1 422 9 19 38 1 0 0 1 95 108 0 2 0 2
1085 2025-02-12 1 434 9 19 37 1 0 0 1 94 110 0 2 0 2
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