Loss Statistics

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2024 is key: the economics
Big Ticket Items
Refineries & Disruptions
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New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1000 2024-11-19 1 690 8 27 49 0 0 0 2 91 100 0 2 0 2
999 2024-11-18 1 610 17 33 46 0 0 0 0 38 120 0 17 0 1
998 2024-11-17 1 560 15 38 30 0 0 0 0 99 107 0 2 0 112
997 2024-11-16 1 640 12 27 36 0 0 0 0 60 85 0 2 0 0
996 2024-11-15 1 650 8 26 28 0 0 0 0 28 69 0 6 0 0
995 2024-11-14 1 520 11 21 20 0 0 0 2 34 77 0 16 0 1
994 2024-11-13 1 690 19 51 64 3 0 0 1 54 124 0 0 0 0
993 2024-11-12 1 770 24 49 56 0 0 0 0 61 96 0 3 0 0
992 2024-11-11 1 950 23 81 38 4 0 0 0 61 68 0 6 0 0
991 2024-11-10 1 770 4 40 34 0 0 0 0 57 119 0 16 0 0
990 2024-11-09 1 350 11 29 31 0 0 0 0 44 122 0 0 0 0
989 2024-11-08 1 660 5 36 23 0 0 0 0 49 66 0 2 0 3
988 2024-11-07 1 580 9 49 32 0 0 0 0 118 84 0 6 0 0
987 2024-11-06 1 400 10 20 24 0 0 0 0 42 78 0 8 0 0
986 2024-11-05 1 250 6 11 20 0 0 0 0 57 55 0 1 0 0
985 2024-11-04 1 260 15 43 29 0 0 0 2 29 41 0 0 0 0
984 2024-11-03 1 300 11 15 35 1 0 0 0 93 77 0 3 0 0
983 2024-11-02 1 410 12 36 10 0 0 0 0 70 46 0 1 0 1
982 2024-11-01 1 270 8 17 37 0 0 0 0 28 76 0 4 0 4
981 2024-10-31 1 460 6 20 26 1 0 0 0 25 77 0 9 0 1
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days date . .
1000 2024-11-19 725 900 9 390 19 114 20 638 1 260 367 329 1 002 19 172 29 639 77 3 574 29 2 670
999 2024-11-18 724 210 9 382 19 087 20 589 1 260 367 329 1 000 19 081 29 539 77 3 572 29 2 668
998 2024-11-17 722 600 9 365 19 054 20 543 1 260 367 329 1 000 19 043 29 419 77 3 555 29 2 667
997 2024-11-16 721 040 9 350 19 016 20 513 1 260 367 329 1 000 18 944 29 312 77 3 553 29 2 555
996 2024-11-15 719 400 9 338 18 989 20 477 1 260 367 329 1 000 18 884 29 227 77 3 551 29 2 555
995 2024-11-14 717 750 9 330 18 963 20 449 1 260 367 329 1 000 18 856 29 158 77 3 545 29 2 555
994 2024-11-13 716 230 9 319 18 942 20 429 1 260 367 329 998 18 822 29 081 77 3 529 29 2 554
993 2024-11-12 714 540 9 300 18 891 20 365 1 257 367 329 997 18 768 28 957 77 3 529 29 2 554
992 2024-11-11 712 770 9 276 18 842 20 309 1 257 367 329 997 18 707 28 861 77 3 526 29 2 554
991 2024-11-10 710 820 9 253 18 761 20 271 1 253 367 329 997 18 646 28 793 77 3 520 29 2 554
990 2024-11-09 709 050 9 249 18 721 20 237 1 253 367 329 997 18 589 28 674 77 3 504 29 2 554
989 2024-11-08 707 700 9 238 18 692 20 206 1 253 367 329 997 18 545 28 552 77 3 504 29 2 554
988 2024-11-07 706 040 9 233 18 656 20 183 1 253 367 329 997 18 496 28 486 77 3 502 29 2 551
987 2024-11-06 704 460 9 224 18 607 20 151 1 253 367 329 997 18 378 28 402 77 3 496 29 2 551
986 2024-11-05 703 060 9 214 18 587 20 127 1 253 367 329 997 18 336 28 324 77 3 488 29 2 551
985 2024-11-04 701 810 9 208 18 576 20 107 1 253 367 329 997 18 279 28 269 77 3 487 29 2 551
984 2024-11-03 700 550 9 193 18 533 20 078 1 253 367 329 995 18 250 28 228 77 3 487 29 2 551
983 2024-11-02 699 250 9 182 18 518 20 043 1 252 367 329 995 18 157 28 151 77 3 484 29 2 551
982 2024-11-01 697 840 9 170 18 482 20 033 1 252 367 329 995 18 087 28 105 77 3 483 29 2 550
981 2024-10-31 696 570 9 162 18 465 19 996 1 252 367 329 995 18 059 28 029 77 3 479 29 2 546
days date . .
1000 2024-11-19 725.9 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.1 29.6 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
999 2024-11-18 724.9 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.1 29.5 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
998 2024-11-17 724.0 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.1 29.4 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
997 2024-11-16 723.2 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.0 29.3 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.5
996 2024-11-15 722.3 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.9 29.3 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.5
995 2024-11-14 721.4 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.9 29.2 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.5
994 2024-11-13 720.6 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.9 29.2 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.5
993 2024-11-12 719.6 9.4 19.0 20.5 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.9 29.1 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.5
992 2024-11-11 718.5 9.4 19.0 20.5 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.8 29.0 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.5
991 2024-11-10 717.3 9.3 18.9 20.5 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.8 29.0 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
990 2024-11-09 716.2 9.3 18.9 20.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.8 28.9 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
989 2024-11-08 715.6 9.3 18.9 20.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.7 28.8 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
988 2024-11-07 714.6 9.3 18.9 20.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.7 28.7 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
987 2024-11-06 713.7 9.3 18.9 20.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.6 28.7 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
986 2024-11-05 713.0 9.3 18.9 20.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.6 28.6 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
985 2024-11-04 712.5 9.3 18.9 20.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.5 28.6 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
984 2024-11-03 711.9 9.3 18.8 20.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.5 28.6 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
983 2024-11-02 711.3 9.3 18.8 20.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.4 28.6 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
982 2024-11-01 710.6 9.3 18.8 20.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.4 28.5 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
981 2024-10-31 710.1 9.3 18.8 20.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.4 28.5 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
days date . .
1000 2024-11-19 964.1 -1.4 7.9 28.4 -1.3 1.0 71.9 70.4 -1.6 -0.6
999 2024-11-18 885.1 7.6 13.9 25.4 -1.3 -1.0 18.9 90.5 13.4 -1.6
998 2024-11-17 836.0 5.6 18.9 9.4 -1.3 -1.0 79.9 77.6 -1.6 109.4
997 2024-11-16 916.8 2.6 7.9 15.4 -1.3 -1.0 41.0 55.7 -1.6 -2.5
996 2024-11-15 927.7 -1.4 6.9 7.4 -1.3 -1.0 9.1 39.7 2.4 -2.5
995 2024-11-14 798.6 1.6 1.9 -0.6 -1.3 1.0 15.1 47.8 12.4 -1.5
994 2024-11-13 969.4 9.6 31.9 43.4 1.7 0.0 35.1 94.8 -3.6 -2.5
993 2024-11-12 1 050.4 14.6 30.0 35.5 -1.3 -1.0 42.1 66.9 -0.6 -2.5
992 2024-11-11 1 231.5 13.6 62.0 17.5 2.7 -1.0 42.2 39.0 2.4 -2.5
991 2024-11-10 1 052.7 -5.3 21.1 13.5 -1.3 -1.0 38.2 90.0 12.4 -2.6
990 2024-11-09 633.8 1.7 10.1 10.6 -1.3 -1.0 25.2 93.1 -3.5 -2.6
989 2024-11-08 944.4 -4.3 17.1 2.6 -1.3 -1.0 30.3 37.2 -1.5 0.4
988 2024-11-07 865.4 -0.3 30.1 11.6 -1.3 -1.0 99.3 55.3 2.4 -2.6
987 2024-11-06 686.3 0.7 1.1 3.6 -1.3 -1.0 23.4 49.3 4.5 -2.6
986 2024-11-05 537.0 -3.3 -7.9 -0.4 -1.3 -1.0 38.4 26.4 -2.5 -2.6
985 2024-11-04 547.5 5.7 24.1 8.6 -1.3 1.0 10.5 12.4 -3.5 -2.6
984 2024-11-03 588.1 1.7 -3.8 14.6 -0.3 -1.0 74.5 48.4 -0.5 -2.6
983 2024-11-02 698.7 2.7 17.2 -10.4 -1.3 -1.0 51.6 17.4 -2.6 -1.6
982 2024-11-01 559.4 -1.3 -1.8 16.6 -1.3 -1.0 9.6 47.5 0.4 1.4
981 2024-10-31 749.9 -3.3 1.2 5.6 -0.3 -1.0 6.6 48.5 5.4 -1.6
days date . .
1000 2024-11-19 1 623 13 32 39 0 0 0 1 58 97 0 6 0 17
999 2024-11-18 1 634 15 35 40 0 0 0 0 53 97 0 7 0 16
998 2024-11-17 1 683 16 42 39 1 0 0 0 57 89 0 5 0 16
997 2024-11-16 1 713 14 42 39 1 0 0 0 51 91 0 7 0 0
996 2024-11-15 1 671 14 42 39 1 0 0 0 48 96 0 7 0 0
995 2024-11-14 1 673 14 44 38 1 0 0 0 51 96 0 6 0 1
994 2024-11-13 1 681 14 48 40 1 0 0 0 63 97 0 5 0 0
993 2024-11-12 1 640 12 43 34 1 0 0 0 62 90 0 6 0 0
992 2024-11-11 1 566 10 38 29 1 0 0 0 61 85 0 6 0 0
991 2024-11-10 1 467 9 33 28 0 0 0 0 57 81 0 5 0 0
990 2024-11-09 1 400 10 29 28 0 0 0 0 62 75 0 3 0 0
989 2024-11-08 1 409 10 30 25 0 0 0 0 65 64 0 3 0 1
988 2024-11-07 1 353 10 27 27 0 0 0 0 62 65 0 3 0 1
987 2024-11-06 1 336 10 23 26 0 0 0 0 49 64 0 4 0 1
986 2024-11-05 1 323 11 23 31 0 0 0 1 55 70 0 3 0 1
985 2024-11-04 1 367 11 25 33 1 0 0 2 53 76 0 3 0 1
984 2024-11-03 1 381 10 20 36 1 0 0 1 59 82 0 4 0 1
983 2024-11-02 1 436 10 24 38 1 0 0 1 55 86 0 6 0 1
982 2024-11-01 1 440 9 22 42 1 0 0 1 56 93 0 6 0 1
981 2024-10-31 1 500 9 26 41 1 0 0 2 60 96 0 6 0 0
days date . .
1000 2024-11-19 1 517 11 31 36 1 0 0 1 62 87 0 7 0 4
999 2024-11-18 1 518 11 33 36 1 0 0 1 60 85 0 7 0 4
998 2024-11-17 1 509 11 33 35 1 0 0 1 61 83 0 6 0 4
997 2024-11-16 1 503 11 32 34 1 0 0 1 60 80 0 7 0 0
996 2024-11-15 1 499 11 33 34 1 0 0 1 60 81 0 7 0 0
995 2024-11-14 1 491 11 33 34 1 0 0 1 61 81 0 7 0 0
994 2024-11-13 1 489 11 34 35 1 0 0 1 60 81 0 6 0 0
993 2024-11-12 1 473 11 33 33 1 0 0 1 59 78 0 6 0 0
992 2024-11-11 1 456 10 32 31 1 0 0 1 58 76 0 6 0 0
991 2024-11-10 1 434 10 31 31 1 0 0 1 57 76 0 6 0 0
990 2024-11-09 1 418 10 31 32 1 0 0 1 59 76 0 7 0 0
989 2024-11-08 1 411 10 31 33 1 0 0 1 60 75 0 7 0 0
988 2024-11-07 1 392 10 30 33 1 0 0 1 60 75 0 7 0 0
987 2024-11-06 1 378 9 29 33 1 0 0 1 57 74 0 7 0 0
986 2024-11-05 1 376 9 29 34 1 0 0 1 57 74 0 7 0 0
985 2024-11-04 1 373 10 30 35 1 0 0 1 57 76 0 7 0 0
984 2024-11-03 1 372 9 29 36 1 0 0 1 58 78 0 8 0 0
983 2024-11-02 1 372 9 30 37 1 0 0 1 56 78 0 8 0 0
982 2024-11-01 1 366 9 30 39 1 0 0 1 57 79 0 8 0 0
981 2024-10-31 1 362 9 30 39 1 0 0 1 57 78 0 9 0 0
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