Loss Statistics

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2024 is key: the economics
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New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1058 2025-01-16 1 670 12 13 4 0 0 0 0 63 124 0 2 0 0
1057 2025-01-15 1 480 11 20 40 0 0 0 0 120 137 0 1 0 31
1056 2025-01-14 1 580 13 22 52 0 0 0 2 107 204 0 0 0 0
1055 2025-01-13 1 330 3 11 47 1 0 0 0 72 83 0 1 0 0
1054 2025-01-12 1 510 8 26 37 1 0 0 2 183 110 0 1 0 0
1053 2025-01-11 1 750 5 18 22 0 0 0 0 63 64 0 2 0 1
1052 2025-01-10 1 570 10 18 28 0 0 0 1 74 61 0 3 0 0
1051 2025-01-09 1 830 10 32 24 0 0 0 3 71 86 0 3 0 0
1050 2025-01-08 1 430 17 16 36 0 0 0 0 86 80 0 5 0 0
1049 2025-01-07 1 660 4 16 19 0 0 0 0 19 81 0 0 0 0
1048 2025-01-06 1 970 10 25 45 2 0 0 4 83 170 0 0 0 0
1047 2025-01-05 1 550 14 45 62 1 0 0 2 178 116 0 4 0 0
1046 2025-01-04 1 730 7 26 25 0 0 0 0 91 97 0 2 0 0
1045 2025-01-03 1 510 2 23 23 0 0 0 0 107 1 3 0 0 3
1044 2025-01-02 1 080 1 14 3 1 0 0 0 49 41 0 0 0 0
1043 2025-01-01 1 370 4 13 20 0 0 0 0 69 54 0 3 0 0
1042 2024-12-31 1 250 4 13 4 0 0 1 0 50 49 0 1 0 0
1041 2024-12-30 1 610 5 27 34 0 0 0 0 12 75 0 1 0 0
1040 2024-12-29 2 010 7 22 44 0 0 0 0 31 141 0 0 0 0
1039 2024-12-28 1 730 5 11 42 0 0 0 0 25 82 0 2 0 0
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days date . .
1058 2025-01-16 815 980 9 803 20 372 21 976 1 274 367 330 1 034 22 536 34 088 80 3 684 31 2 867
1057 2025-01-15 814 310 9 791 20 359 21 972 1 274 367 330 1 034 22 473 33 964 80 3 682 31 2 867
1056 2025-01-14 812 830 9 780 20 339 21 932 1 274 367 330 1 034 22 353 33 827 80 3 681 31 2 836
1055 2025-01-13 811 250 9 767 20 317 21 880 1 274 367 330 1 032 22 246 33 623 80 3 681 31 2 836
1054 2025-01-12 809 920 9 764 20 306 21 833 1 273 367 330 1 032 22 174 33 540 80 3 680 31 2 836
1053 2025-01-11 808 410 9 756 20 280 21 796 1 272 367 330 1 030 21 991 33 430 80 3 679 31 2 836
1052 2025-01-10 806 660 9 751 20 262 21 774 1 272 367 330 1 030 21 928 33 366 80 3 677 31 2 835
1051 2025-01-09 805 090 9 741 20 244 21 746 1 272 367 330 1 029 21 854 33 305 80 3 674 31 2 835
1050 2025-01-08 803 260 9 731 20 212 21 722 1 272 367 330 1 026 21 783 33 219 80 3 671 31 2 835
1049 2025-01-07 801 830 9 714 20 196 21 686 1 272 367 330 1 026 21 697 33 139 80 3 666 31 2 835
1048 2025-01-06 800 170 9 710 20 180 21 667 1 272 367 330 1 026 21 678 33 058 80 3 666 31 2 835
1047 2025-01-05 798 200 9 700 20 155 21 622 1 270 367 330 1 022 21 595 32 888 80 3 666 31 2 835
1046 2025-01-04 796 650 9 686 20 110 21 560 1 269 367 330 1 020 21 417 32 772 80 3 662 31 2 835
1045 2025-01-03 794 920 9 679 20 084 21 535 1 269 367 330 1 020 21 326 32 675 80 3 660 31 2 835
1044 2025-01-02 793 410 9 677 20 061 21 512 1 269 367 330 1 020 21 219 32 674 77 3 660 31 2 832
1043 2025-01-01 792 330 9 676 20 047 21 509 1 268 367 330 1 020 21 170 32 633 77 3 660 31 2 832
1042 2024-12-31 790 960 9 672 20 034 21 489 1 268 367 330 1 020 21 101 32 579 77 3 657 31 2 832
1041 2024-12-30 789 710 9 668 20 021 21 485 1 268 367 329 1 020 21 051 32 530 77 3 656 31 2 832
1040 2024-12-29 788 100 9 663 19 994 21 451 1 268 367 329 1 020 21 039 32 455 77 3 655 31 2 832
1039 2024-12-28 786 090 9 656 19 972 21 407 1 268 367 329 1 020 21 008 32 314 77 3 655 31 2 832
days date . .
1058 2025-01-16 771.2 9.3 19.3 20.8 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 21.3 32.1 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1057 2025-01-15 770.4 9.3 19.3 20.8 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 21.2 32.1 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1056 2025-01-14 769.7 9.3 19.3 20.8 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 21.1 32.0 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1055 2025-01-13 769.0 9.3 19.3 20.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 21.1 31.8 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1054 2025-01-12 768.4 9.3 19.3 20.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 21.0 31.7 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1053 2025-01-11 767.7 9.3 19.3 20.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 20.9 31.7 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1052 2025-01-10 766.8 9.3 19.3 20.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 20.8 31.6 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1051 2025-01-09 766.0 9.3 19.3 20.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 20.8 31.6 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1050 2025-01-08 765.0 9.3 19.2 20.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 20.7 31.6 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1049 2025-01-07 764.4 9.3 19.3 20.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 20.7 31.5 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1048 2025-01-06 763.5 9.3 19.3 20.7 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 20.7 31.5 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1047 2025-01-05 762.4 9.3 19.3 20.7 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 20.6 31.3 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1046 2025-01-04 761.6 9.3 19.2 20.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 20.5 31.3 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1045 2025-01-03 760.7 9.3 19.2 20.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 20.4 31.2 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1044 2025-01-02 760.0 9.3 19.2 20.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 20.3 31.2 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1043 2025-01-01 759.7 9.3 19.2 20.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 20.3 31.2 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1042 2024-12-31 759.1 9.3 19.2 20.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 20.2 31.2 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1041 2024-12-30 758.6 9.3 19.2 20.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 20.2 31.2 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1040 2024-12-29 757.8 9.3 19.2 20.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 20.2 31.1 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1039 2024-12-28 756.6 9.3 19.2 20.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 20.2 31.0 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
days date . .
1058 2025-01-16 898.8 2.7 -6.3 -16.8 -1.2 -1.0 41.7 91.9 -1.5 -2.7
1057 2025-01-15 709.6 1.7 0.7 19.2 -1.2 -1.0 98.8 104.9 -2.5 28.3
1056 2025-01-14 810.3 3.7 2.7 31.2 -1.2 1.0 85.9 172.0 -3.5 -2.7
1055 2025-01-13 561.0 -6.3 -8.3 26.3 -0.2 -1.0 50.9 51.2 -2.5 -2.7
1054 2025-01-12 741.6 -1.3 6.7 16.3 -0.2 1.0 162.0 78.3 -2.5 -2.7
1053 2025-01-11 982.3 -4.3 -1.3 1.3 -1.2 -1.0 42.1 32.3 -1.5 -1.7
1052 2025-01-10 803.2 0.7 -1.3 7.3 -1.2 0.0 53.2 29.4 -0.5 -2.7
1051 2025-01-09 1 064.0 0.7 12.7 3.3 -1.2 2.0 50.2 54.4 -0.5 -2.7
1050 2025-01-08 665.0 7.7 -3.2 15.3 -1.2 -1.0 65.3 48.4 1.5 -2.7
1049 2025-01-07 895.6 -5.3 -3.3 -1.7 -1.2 -1.0 -1.7 49.5 -3.5 -2.7
1048 2025-01-06 1 206.5 0.7 5.7 24.3 0.8 3.0 62.3 138.5 -3.5 -2.7
1047 2025-01-05 787.6 4.7 25.7 41.3 -0.2 1.0 157.4 84.7 0.5 -2.7
1046 2025-01-04 968.4 -2.3 6.8 4.4 -1.2 -1.0 70.5 65.7 -1.5 -2.7
1045 2025-01-03 749.3 -7.3 3.8 2.4 -1.2 -1.0 86.6 -30.2 -3.5 0.3
1044 2025-01-02 320.0 -8.3 -5.2 -17.6 -0.2 -1.0 28.7 9.8 -3.5 -2.7
1043 2025-01-01 610.3 -5.3 -6.2 -0.6 -1.2 -1.0 48.7 22.8 -0.5 -2.7
1042 2024-12-31 490.9 -5.3 -6.2 -16.6 -1.2 -0.4 0.7 -1.0 29.8 17.8 -0.1 -2.5 0.0 -2.7
1041 2024-12-30 851.4 -4.3 7.8 13.4 -1.2 -1.0 -8.2 43.8 -2.5 -2.7
1040 2024-12-29 1 252.2 -2.3 2.8 23.4 -1.2 -1.0 10.8 109.9 -3.5 -2.7
1039 2024-12-28 973.4 -4.3 -8.2 21.4 -1.2 -1.0 4.8 51.0 -1.5 -2.7
days date . .
1058 2025-01-16 1 556 9 18 33 0 0 0 1 97 112 0 1 0 5
1057 2025-01-15 1 579 9 21 36 0 0 0 1 99 106 0 2 0 5
1056 2025-01-14 1 571 9 20 35 0 0 0 1 94 98 0 2 0 0
1055 2025-01-13 1 583 8 20 30 0 0 0 1 81 81 0 2 0 0
1054 2025-01-12 1 674 9 22 30 0 0 0 1 83 93 0 2 0 0
1053 2025-01-11 1 680 10 24 34 0 0 0 1 82 94 0 2 0 0
1052 2025-01-10 1 677 10 25 34 0 0 0 1 86 99 0 2 0 0
1051 2025-01-09 1 669 9 26 33 0 0 0 1 91 90 0 2 0 0
1050 2025-01-08 1 561 8 24 30 1 0 0 1 88 84 0 2 0 0
1049 2025-01-07 1 553 6 23 28 1 0 0 1 85 80 0 1 0 0
1048 2025-01-06 1 494 6 23 26 1 0 0 1 90 75 0 1 0 0
1047 2025-01-05 1 443 5 23 24 0 0 0 0 79 62 0 2 0 0
1046 2025-01-04 1 509 4 20 22 0 0 0 0 58 65 0 1 0 0
1045 2025-01-03 1 509 4 18 24 0 0 0 0 49 63 0 1 0 0
1044 2025-01-02 1 534 5 17 25 0 0 0 0 36 73 0 1 0 0
1043 2025-01-01 1 616 7 18 28 0 0 0 0 33 78 0 1 0 0
1042 2024-12-31 1 640 6 17 28 0 0 0 0 32 80 0 1 0 8
1041 2024-12-30 1 690 6 16 29 0 0 0 0 35 77 0 1 0 8
1040 2024-12-29 1 693 7 17 26 0 0 0 0 40 73 0 1 0 8
1039 2024-12-28 1 690 7 16 24 0 0 0 0 43 63 0 1 0 8
days date . .
1058 2025-01-16 1 638 8 20 29 0 0 0 1 70 86 0 2 0 3
1057 2025-01-15 1 635 7 21 29 0 0 0 1 70 84 0 2 0 3
1056 2025-01-14 1 639 7 20 27 0 0 0 1 67 81 0 2 0 2
1055 2025-01-13 1 622 7 21 27 0 0 0 1 64 77 0 2 0 2
1054 2025-01-12 1 620 8 21 26 0 0 0 1 66 81 0 2 0 2
1053 2025-01-11 1 604 7 20 25 0 0 0 1 62 78 0 2 0 2
1052 2025-01-10 1 592 7 21 25 0 0 0 1 62 78 0 2 0 2
1051 2025-01-09 1 586 7 21 24 0 0 0 1 59 78 0 2 0 2
1050 2025-01-08 1 572 7 21 23 0 0 0 1 57 76 0 2 0 2
1049 2025-01-07 1 569 7 21 22 0 0 0 1 54 75 0 2 0 2
1048 2025-01-06 1 555 6 21 22 0 0 0 1 55 73 0 2 0 2
1047 2025-01-05 1 538 6 21 20 0 0 0 0 53 68 0 2 0 2
1046 2025-01-04 1 529 6 20 19 0 0 0 0 47 66 0 1 0 2
1045 2025-01-03 1 527 6 21 19 0 0 0 0 46 64 0 2 0 2
1044 2025-01-02 1 529 6 21 18 0 0 0 0 43 67 0 2 0 2
1043 2025-01-01 1 549 6 21 19 0 0 0 0 43 69 0 2 0 2
1042 2024-12-31 1 563 6 22 19 0 0 0 0 42 69 0 2 0 2
1041 2024-12-30 1 581 7 22 20 0 0 0 0 43 71 0 2 0 2
1040 2024-12-29 1 585 7 22 20 0 0 0 0 43 71 0 2 0 2
1039 2024-12-28 1 576 7 21 19 0 0 0 0 43 68 0 2 0 2
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