Forecast And Scenarios: Tanks Updated on 2024-07-06
Valid open-source estimates based on imagery, allow the use of an algorithm with confidence levels evaluate scenarios on tank losses.Data points
How many tanks ?
A starting point is data from Wikipedia: 4 350 tanks active at the start of the war. Caveat, data is from ru sources and is thus subject to bombastic inflation.Confidence factor: High
Tanks in storage & removals (updated June '24)
The storage numbers from Wikipedia are ignored, as their quality is not being taken into consideration. Or greater valus is the satellite analysis conducted and refined by @HighMarsed, Jompy and the Covert Cabal channelAt the start of the war, Covert Cabal estimated 5150 tanks in storage of good condition; no intervals are applied as only the lateststorage count matters.
Storage removal, calculated by Covert Cabal, is an interesting indicator.
• From start of war to Sept. '22, µ removal: 100/month.
• next 6 months µ removal: 130/month
• march '23 to october '23, µ removal: 65/month
• october '23 to june '24, µ removal: 60/month ( mostly T-72A and T-62)
Conservatively, we can continue assuming a removal rate of 6o units / month
However, there is a lot of junk there that will be unusable or very onerous to refurbish.
Confidence factor: Very high +/- 10%
2024-06 count of T-80s in storage: visible: 260
With a qualitative assessment:
Self-attrition
Self-attrition is ignored, as many models have equivalent artillery and thus the latter will tend to be cannibalised for their barrels.Confidence factor: Very high
New production
Estimated at between 8 and 16 units/year, based on early ru propaganda.Some estimates go as high as 30-40...
But there is no specification between new and refurbished units. 8 was pre-war and represents new units. Confidence factor: High.
Working assumptions on losses
Oryx data is a starting point as losses are confirmed by images.Oryx provides a confidence interval, indicating they may register 70% of actual losses.
UA MoD figures can be questioned, as positive bias can be expected. Using a 20% discount rate provides another range point, in addition to the published figure.
This gives us these data points at mid-march 2024: 2900 -> 4150 -> 5400 -> 6780
These can thus be used as applied discount rates relative to UA MoD communications: 43%, 61%, 80%, 100%
Note: Having video evidence of T-62 and T-55 in operating theaters and in transport convoys is indicative of the near total exhaustion of active tanks at the start of the war (4350), which is above Oryx's assumed destroyed total (4150).
Confidence factor: You set it!
Items remaining in storage by type:
Do note that the june 2024 update (see preceding section) by Covert Cabal in conjunction with high_marsed indicated the october 2023 estimate of visible t-80s was over-evaluated by 400 units.
