First some data points and related question marks.
Clearly lower caliber mortars make the data fuzzier; in particular, smaller caliber mortars should be considered disposable in the sense that they are not high-ticket items, quickly produced & markets could be flush with them.
They are also well in range of FPV drones and thus very exposed.
But, given large numbers, that cannot be the only explanation.
The remaining sensible explanation is that a lot more is in harm's way.
This is where the storage data comes in and affirms the 'in-harms-way' assumption.
The data below presentes the amount of stored items remaining as a percentage (%), combining both towed and self-propelled artillery, ordered on different basis.
The models are ranked by range in kms (note: models have variants with range extension possibilities)
There is the actual figure, then an adjusted figure to account for the 'junk' factor (too costly, lengthy to deal with, possible use for cannibalisation, etc.):
=> two reduction factors were applied to the counts and discounted from the original figures for pre-war.
So we see the % of items remaining from the start of the invasion to today, in full numbers, or with 30 or 40% 'junk' factor.
The conclusions are vivid:
At which point,
It probably is already limited to glide bombs and missiles/drones... Which are mainly used to terrorise civilians ( reflecting on the insane WH policy).
- Artillery hit numbers have been high, often dwarfing previous figures
- Mortars (down to 80mm) must have crept into the counting by UA Mod
- There is a bounty on various forms of equipment, which has recently been strengthened requiring via visual support
- The projection model, even with heavy discounting, is thus skewered... or is it really?
- But then, how to explain the volatility of data, from 6 to 81 in the 30 days leading to 2024-09-25 ?
Clearly lower caliber mortars make the data fuzzier; in particular, smaller caliber mortars should be considered disposable in the sense that they are not high-ticket items, quickly produced & markets could be flush with them.They are also well in range of FPV drones and thus very exposed.
But, given large numbers, that cannot be the only explanation.
The remaining sensible explanation is that a lot more is in harm's way.
This is where the storage data comes in and affirms the 'in-harms-way' assumption.
The data below presentes the amount of stored items remaining as a percentage (%), combining both towed and self-propelled artillery, ordered on different basis.
The models are ranked by range in kms (note: models have variants with range extension possibilities)
There is the actual figure, then an adjusted figure to account for the 'junk' factor (too costly, lengthy to deal with, possible use for cannibalisation, etc.):
=> two reduction factors were applied to the counts and discounted from the original figures for pre-war.
So we see the % of items remaining from the start of the invasion to today, in full numbers, or with 30 or 40% 'junk' factor.
The conclusions are vivid:
- the newer models are increasingly rare
- the longer range artillery is dwindling much faster than the shorter range (and older) artillery
- it will become increasingly difficult to be 'everywhere'.
- and be in closer proximity to drones.
At which point,
- the decrease no longer is linear, but progresses geometrically...
It probably is already limited to glide bombs and missiles/drones... Which are mainly used to terrorise civilians ( reflecting on the insane WH policy).
| range km | ∆ 22-24 | ∆ 30 | ∆ 40 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2s7 | 47 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| 2a36 | 40 | 0.26 | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| M-46 | 40 | 0.45 | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| 2s5 | 37 | 0.54 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| 2s34 | 36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2a65 | 25 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| d-20 | 24 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| ? medium | 24 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| 2s3 | 24 | 0.63 | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| d-30 | 22 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| ? small | 22 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.88 |
| 2s1 | 22 | 0.72 | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| 2s4 | 20 | 0.51 | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| 2s9 | 13 | 0.61 | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| m-30 | 12 | 0.72 | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| mt-12 | 8 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| Mortar | 8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
