Loss Statistics

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history
2024 is key: the economics
Big Ticket Items
Refineries & Disruptions
Boycott
New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
Send your feedback & thoughts

Why 2024 is key?

TL;DR One would prefer reading through everything and coming up to one's own conclusions. But if one must...
  • no external funding or investment available
  • internal non-government funding is insignificant.
  • depletion of NWF (objects in mirror are closer than they appear)
  • oil & gas sales needed to compensate
  • inflation rearing its ugly head
  • Putin is a gambler. He has put all his chips on the table
    • depleting war stocks at insane rates,
    • sacrificing lives at insane rates,
    • throwing all monetary reserves in.
  • all signs point to bankruptcy (financial, military - aside from the moral one already gained) in coming months
  • what you can do? see below

some data

Government budgetary deficit Year: revenues - expenses = deficit/surplus (billion ₽ )
2022: 27 825 - 31 131 = -3 306
2023: 29 123 - 32 364 = -3 241
2024 (at April 30): -4 000 (not a typo)
Defence spending Year: % of GNP, % of budget
2022: 2.7%, 14%
2023: 3.9%, 16%
2024: 7.8%, 40%

Examining revenue sources (we know what they want to spend on, but can they?)

Taxation How can the government generate revenue from internal sources
  • VAT represents 60% of this source, so is linked to internal economy
  • additional taxes were levied on oil and gas industry
  • 2/3 of the population lives on a subsistance basis, thus cannot contribute
Current account surplus. Let's not mince words, this means oil & gas revenues
Keep in mind that they are part of the cabal with OPEC that want to keep prices high...

Current account balances (exports - imports)
2022: 23 800 billion ₽
2023: 5 000 billion ₽
Actual State revenue, % of budget, % of current account balance
2022: 11 586 billion ₽, 36%, 48.6%
2023: 5 000 billion ₽, 27%, 176.5%
That's not a typo. 176% of current account balance. Does that sound sustainable to you?
Issuing debt internally - internal capital markets are very thin. Companies complain already of lack of investment
- foreign investment is now actually disvestment, sometimes forced.
Issuing debt externally - nothing possible from the West
- only sanction-busting China can be a lifeline
Print money - this is probably happening anyways
- inflation is already at 14%.
- printing more money will fuel that exponentially.
the National Welfare Fund (NWF) the rainy day fund NWF, by law, must compensate the government for any decreases in oil and gas revenues.
Official withdrawls.
  • 2022: 2 412 billion ₽
  • 2023: 2 900 billion ₽ generated from sale of gold, yuan, euros.
  • 2024: 1 300 billion ₽
Why the drop? Check the balances.
  • 2023-09: 13 700 billion ₽
  • 2024-12: 6 700 billion ₽
Note: these do not match up with the liquidation values shown above. i.e. creative accounting is occurring with the valuations, particularly of non-liquid items: easy when holding shares of state-owned/controlled companies.
Look further: how liquid is that figure?
That fund has non-liquid items, such as shares... in state-owned/controlled enterprises: Aeroflot, military concerns...
What are the liquid items?
from their own publications
  • 2023-01-01: Euro 10 billion, yuan 310 billion, gold: 554 tons
  • 2024-01-01: yuan 227 billion, gold: 358 tons.
  • 2024-01-01 valuation:31.4 billion US of yuan, 24.8 billion US of gold.
  • 2024-01-01 valuation in ₽: 3 140 billion + 2 480 billion
In other words what is liquid is what will cover the spending deficit.
Then, the nest egg is gone.

Just cross-checking. The published data for year-end of non-liquid assets is 6 900 billion ₽. This is more than the year-end balance estimated.
This is THEIR estimation.
Sales of central bank assets - reserves were put in the NWF.
- some reserves may be stored locally
- others are in foreign countries and are presently frozen.

The need to keep attacking refineries

Refineries' production, with the NWF, are the only real lifeline of the war effort.
Fluid catalytic cracking columns are the key component to degrade
  • FCC column stops, the entire production line stops
  • replacement parts are mostly foreign, expensive and should be embargoed via sanctions
  • with parts, it is estimated that recovery times are around 6 months
The real consequences (not the US electoral campaigning fears)
  • no refined products to export. No revenues, no taxes levied. Imports and its costs rise.
  • there is no lack of refining capacity globally; others will gladly pick up the slack.
  • think Hurricane Katrina: locally, prices were strongly affected, but globally, at lot less
  • logistics become heavier, costlier. Military will always be priority. Local costs rise. Petrol being heavily subsidised, this becomes either a drag on coffers or the population has to pay the price. Either is desirable.
  • The incentive then becomes to pump out more crude to compensate for the loss of refined revenues. That's downward pressure on prices (and also going against the OPEC agreement).
  • The dissolving of the NWF makes this the only lifeline.
In essence, hitting refineries is double-, triple- pressure.
Do not stop.

Why seize (and liquidate) frozen assets?

Unpopular take: banking (and central banking) is based upon trust. Dissolving this implies dissolving the business foundations.

One can understand why there is hesitancy. Yet, The Bank for International Settlements handed over the half of Czechoslovakia's reserves to Moscow in 1948, so there is precedent (the other half was not handed over by the UK).

In using only the interest, it is a way to kick the can down the road... What is required is some legal ruling. These cases need to be opened today; they take time & none should be wasted.

A defeated invader will have to pay reparations.
Those funds need to be directly available
(otherwise they get diluted in time).

Why arm Ukraine for victory?

Why happens after?

What can you do to accelerate matters?

Some sources.
finance ministry publications.
Reuters 2024 budget spending review.
Cash situation analysis.
Assessment of economy by Carnegie Institute.


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