Loss Statistics

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2024 is key: the economics
Big Ticket Items
Refineries & Disruptions
Boycott
New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
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days date . .
953 2024-10-03 1 230 15 31 59 8 0 0 1 101 70 0 3 0 0
952 2024-10-02 1 150 6 17 37 0 0 0 1 43 58 0 12 0 0
951 2024-10-01 1 130 4 32 14 0 0 0 0 26 71 0 4 0 0
950 2024-09-30 1 370 9 44 33 0 0 0 0 98 73 0 1 0 3
949 2024-09-29 1 250 5 27 27 0 0 0 1 38 53 0 16 0 0
948 2024-09-28 1 170 9 38 62 1 0 0 1 93 84 0 6 0 0
947 2024-09-27 1 470 14 42 55 4 0 0 0 62 99 0 0 0 2
946 2024-09-26 1 370 21 48 58 0 0 0 2 85 58 0 2 0 0
945 2024-09-25 1 400 10 44 71 0 0 0 7 67 105 0 22 0 4
944 2024-09-24 1 250 15 12 74 1 0 0 0 115 73 0 13 0 0
943 2024-09-23 1 400 16 40 61 1 0 0 3 65 73 0 10 0 0
942 2024-09-22 1 330 16 30 81 2 0 0 0 71 79 0 1 0 0
941 2024-09-21 1 500 22 52 63 2 0 0 0 67 57 0 19 0 0
940 2024-09-20 1 440 21 38 58 4 0 0 0 92 68 0 10 0 0
939 2024-09-19 1 340 20 39 35 0 0 0 2 52 59 0 6 0 0
938 2024-09-18 1 130 14 13 23 1 0 0 0 63 55 0 0 0 0
937 2024-09-17 1 130 6 3 25 0 0 0 0 25 45 0 18 0 0
936 2024-09-16 1 020 2 6 6 1 0 0 0 66 27 0 1 0 0
935 2024-09-15 1 060 3 8 14 1 0 0 0 29 28 0 6 0 0
934 2024-09-14 1 170 6 20 23 0 0 0 1 85 53 0 0 0 1
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days date . .
953 2024-10-03 658 100 8 908 17 622 18 922 1 220 367 328 966 16 485 25 811 77 3 233 29 2 538
952 2024-10-02 656 870 8 893 17 591 18 863 1 212 367 328 965 16 384 25 741 77 3 230 29 2 538
951 2024-10-01 655 720 8 887 17 574 18 826 1 212 367 328 964 16 341 25 683 77 3 218 29 2 538
950 2024-09-30 654 590 8 883 17 542 18 812 1 212 367 328 964 16 315 25 612 77 3 214 29 2 538
949 2024-09-29 653 220 8 874 17 498 18 779 1 212 367 328 964 16 217 25 539 77 3 213 29 2 535
948 2024-09-28 651 970 8 869 17 471 18 752 1 212 367 328 963 16 179 25 486 77 3 197 29 2 535
947 2024-09-27 650 800 8 860 17 433 18 690 1 211 367 328 962 16 086 25 402 77 3 191 29 2 535
946 2024-09-26 649 330 8 846 17 391 18 635 1 207 367 328 962 16 024 25 303 77 3 191 29 2 533
945 2024-09-25 647 960 8 825 17 343 18 577 1 207 367 328 960 15 939 25 245 77 3 189 29 2 533
944 2024-09-24 646 560 8 815 17 299 18 506 1 207 367 328 953 15 872 25 140 77 3 167 29 2 529
943 2024-09-23 645 310 8 800 17 287 18 432 1 206 367 328 953 15 757 25 067 77 3 154 29 2 529
942 2024-09-22 643 910 8 784 17 247 18 371 1 205 367 328 950 15 692 24 994 77 3 144 29 2 529
941 2024-09-21 642 580 8 768 17 217 18 290 1 203 367 328 950 15 621 24 915 77 3 143 29 2 529
940 2024-09-20 641 080 8 746 17 165 18 227 1 201 367 328 950 15 554 24 858 77 3 124 29 2 529
939 2024-09-19 639 640 8 725 17 127 18 169 1 197 367 328 950 15 462 24 790 77 3 114 29 2 529
938 2024-09-18 638 300 8 705 17 088 18 134 1 197 367 328 948 15 410 24 731 77 3 108 29 2 529
937 2024-09-17 637 170 8 691 17 075 18 111 1 196 367 328 948 15 347 24 676 77 3 108 29 2 529
936 2024-09-16 636 040 8 685 17 072 18 086 1 196 367 328 948 15 322 24 631 77 3 090 29 2 529
935 2024-09-15 635 020 8 683 17 066 18 080 1 195 367 328 948 15 256 24 604 77 3 089 29 2 529
934 2024-09-14 633 960 8 680 17 058 18 066 1 194 367 328 948 15 227 24 576 77 3 083 29 2 529
days date . .
953 2024-10-03 690.6 9.3 18.5 19.9 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 17.3 27.0 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
952 2024-10-02 690.0 9.3 18.5 19.8 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 17.2 27.0 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
951 2024-10-01 689.5 9.3 18.5 19.8 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 17.2 26.9 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
950 2024-09-30 689.0 9.4 18.5 19.8 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 17.1 26.9 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
949 2024-09-29 688.3 9.4 18.4 19.8 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 17.1 26.8 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
948 2024-09-28 687.7 9.4 18.4 19.8 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 17.0 26.8 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
947 2024-09-27 687.2 9.4 18.4 19.7 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 17.0 26.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.7
946 2024-09-26 686.4 9.4 18.4 19.7 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 16.9 26.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.7
945 2024-09-25 685.7 9.3 18.4 19.7 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 16.8 26.6 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.7
944 2024-09-24 684.9 9.3 18.3 19.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 16.8 26.5 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.7
943 2024-09-23 684.3 9.3 18.3 19.5 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 16.7 26.5 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.7
942 2024-09-22 683.6 9.3 18.3 19.5 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 16.6 26.4 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
941 2024-09-21 682.9 9.3 18.3 19.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 16.6 26.4 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
940 2024-09-20 682.0 9.3 18.3 19.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 16.5 26.4 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
939 2024-09-19 681.2 9.3 18.2 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 16.4 26.3 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
938 2024-09-18 680.5 9.3 18.2 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 16.4 26.3 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
937 2024-09-17 680.0 9.3 18.2 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.4 26.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
936 2024-09-16 679.5 9.3 18.2 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.3 26.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
935 2024-09-15 679.2 9.3 18.3 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.3 26.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
934 2024-09-14 678.8 9.3 18.3 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.3 26.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
days date . .
953 2024-10-03 539.4 5.7 12.5 39.1 6.7 0.0 83.7 43.0 -0.4 -2.6
952 2024-10-02 460.0 -3.3 -1.5 17.2 -1.3 0.0 25.8 31.0 8.6 -2.6
951 2024-10-01 440.5 -5.3 13.5 -5.8 -1.3 -1.0 8.8 44.1 0.6 -2.6
950 2024-09-30 681.0 -0.4 25.5 13.2 -1.3 -1.0 80.9 46.1 -2.4 0.4
949 2024-09-29 561.7 -4.4 8.6 7.2 -1.3 0.0 20.9 26.2 12.6 -2.6
948 2024-09-28 482.3 -0.4 19.6 42.2 -0.3 0.0 76.0 57.2 2.6 -2.6
947 2024-09-27 782.8 4.6 23.6 35.3 2.7 -1.0 45.0 72.3 -3.4 -0.7
946 2024-09-26 683.6 11.6 29.6 38.3 -1.3 1.0 68.1 31.3 -1.4 -2.7
945 2024-09-25 714.3 0.7 25.6 51.3 -1.3 6.0 50.2 78.4 18.6 1.3
944 2024-09-24 565.1 5.7 -6.3 54.4 -0.3 -1.0 98.2 46.5 9.6 -2.7
943 2024-09-23 715.7 6.7 21.7 41.5 -0.3 2.0 48.3 46.5 6.6 -2.7
942 2024-09-22 646.4 6.7 11.7 61.5 0.7 -1.0 54.4 52.6 -2.3 -2.7
941 2024-09-21 817.1 12.7 33.7 43.6 0.7 -1.0 50.4 30.6 15.7 -2.7
940 2024-09-20 758.0 11.7 19.7 38.6 2.7 -1.0 75.5 41.6 6.7 -2.7
939 2024-09-19 658.8 10.7 20.8 15.7 -1.3 1.0 35.6 32.7 2.7 -2.7
938 2024-09-18 449.5 4.7 -5.2 3.7 -0.3 -1.0 46.6 28.7 -3.3 -2.7
937 2024-09-17 450.0 -3.3 -15.2 5.7 -1.3 -1.0 8.6 18.8 14.7 -2.7
936 2024-09-16 340.5 -7.3 -12.2 -13.3 -0.3 -1.0 49.7 0.8 -2.3 -2.7
935 2024-09-15 380.8 -6.3 -10.3 -5.3 -0.3 -1.0 12.7 1.8 2.7 -2.7
934 2024-09-14 491.2 -3.3 1.7 3.7 -1.3 0.0 68.7 26.8 -3.3 -1.7
days date . .
953 2024-10-03 1 253 9 33 41 2 0 0 1 66 73 0 6 0 1
952 2024-10-02 1 273 10 35 41 1 0 0 1 64 71 0 6 0 1
951 2024-10-01 1 309 10 39 46 1 0 0 2 67 78 0 7 0 1
950 2024-09-30 1 326 12 36 54 1 0 0 2 80 78 0 9 0 1
949 2024-09-29 1 330 13 36 58 1 0 0 2 75 78 0 10 0 1
948 2024-09-28 1 341 14 36 66 1 0 0 2 80 82 0 8 0 1
947 2024-09-27 1 389 16 38 66 1 0 0 2 76 78 0 10 0 1
946 2024-09-26 1 384 17 38 67 1 0 0 2 80 73 0 11 0 1
945 2024-09-25 1 380 17 36 63 1 0 0 2 76 73 0 12 0 1
944 2024-09-24 1 341 18 32 56 2 0 0 1 75 66 0 8 0 0
943 2024-09-23 1 324 16 31 49 1 0 0 1 62 62 0 9 0 0
942 2024-09-22 1 270 14 26 42 1 0 0 0 62 56 0 8 0 0
941 2024-09-21 1 231 13 23 32 1 0 0 0 56 48 0 9 0 0
940 2024-09-20 1 184 10 18 26 1 0 0 0 59 48 0 6 0 0
939 2024-09-19 1 151 8 18 22 1 0 0 1 51 48 0 6 0 0
938 2024-09-18 1 134 7 20 24 1 0 0 0 55 51 0 7 0 0
937 2024-09-17 1 154 7 20 31 1 0 0 1 52 57 0 7 0 0
936 2024-09-16 1 156 6 22 36 1 0 0 1 57 58 0 5 0 0
935 2024-09-15 1 207 6 24 42 1 0 0 1 57 55 0 6 0 0
934 2024-09-14 1 220 6 24 44 1 0 0 1 57 57 0 5 0 0
days date . .
953 2024-10-03 1 253 10 26 42 1 0 0 1 64 62 0 7 0 0
952 2024-10-02 1 258 9 26 41 1 0 0 1 62 60 0 8 0 0
951 2024-10-01 1 265 10 26 41 1 0 0 1 61 60 0 8 0 1
950 2024-09-30 1 271 10 26 41 1 0 0 1 62 59 0 7 0 1
949 2024-09-29 1 270 10 26 40 1 0 0 1 60 59 0 8 0 1
948 2024-09-28 1 274 10 25 41 1 0 0 1 59 59 0 8 0 1
947 2024-09-27 1 275 10 25 39 1 0 0 1 59 58 0 8 0 1
946 2024-09-26 1 266 9 24 39 1 0 0 1 57 56 0 8 0 1
945 2024-09-25 1 257 9 23 38 1 0 0 1 57 56 0 8 0 1
944 2024-09-24 1 253 9 22 37 1 0 0 1 59 54 0 8 0 5
943 2024-09-23 1 249 8 22 36 1 0 0 1 57 55 0 8 0 5
942 2024-09-22 1 242 8 21 36 1 0 0 0 56 55 0 8 0 5
941 2024-09-21 1 236 8 21 34 1 0 0 1 55 54 0 8 0 5
940 2024-09-20 1 226 7 20 34 1 0 0 1 53 54 0 7 0 5
939 2024-09-19 1 216 7 20 33 1 0 0 1 53 54 0 8 0 5
938 2024-09-18 1 211 6 19 34 1 0 0 1 53 54 0 7 0 5
937 2024-09-17 1 218 6 20 35 1 0 0 1 53 56 0 8 0 5
936 2024-09-16 1 218 6 20 36 1 0 0 1 54 56 0 8 0 5
935 2024-09-15 1 223 6 20 38 1 0 0 1 53 58 0 8 0 5
934 2024-09-14 1 228 6 20 39 1 0 0 1 54 59 0 9 0 5
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