Loss Statistics

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from .. to trends (7-day µ)
2024 is key: the economics
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Refineries & Disruptions
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New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1183 2025-05-21 870 4 5 32 0 0 0 0 105 99 0 0 0 0
1182 2025-05-20 980 1 2 23 0 0 0 0 71 76 0 1 0 0
1181 2025-05-19 1 030 1 5 58 1 0 0 0 118 105 0 2 0 0
1180 2025-05-18 1 040 1 5 29 0 0 0 0 118 88 0 0 0 0
1179 2025-05-17 1 130 1 4 38 1 0 0 1 107 91 0 0 0 0
1178 2025-05-16 910 6 7 34 1 0 0 1 155 96 0 0 0 0
1177 2025-05-15 1 100 13 32 36 1 0 0 1 123 166 0 0 0 0
1176 2025-05-14 1 220 8 13 45 2 0 1 1 140 165 0 8 0 0
1175 2025-05-13 1 240 2 14 47 1 0 0 3 82 126 0 0 0 0
1174 2025-05-12 1 070 2 14 62 0 0 0 0 100 138 0 0 0 0
1173 2025-05-11 1 170 8 27 48 0 0 0 3 141 171 0 6 0 0
1172 2025-05-10 1 310 2 6 33 1 0 0 1 55 117 0 3 0 0
1171 2025-05-09 1 310 4 7 49 0 0 0 1 36 106 0 0 0 0
1170 2025-05-08 1 300 4 4 36 1 0 0 1 39 120 0 0 0 0
1169 2025-05-07 1 200 2 10 50 1 0 0 1 141 120 0 2 0 0
1168 2025-05-06 1 270 14 3 71 0 0 0 0 124 131 0 0 0 0
1167 2025-05-05 1 430 3 5 61 1 0 0 0 145 103 0 3 0 0
1166 2025-05-04 1 260 5 8 43 1 0 0 0 137 109 0 0 0 0
1165 2025-05-03 1 340 11 24 52 1 2 0 1 163 129 0 0 0 0
1164 2025-05-02 1 170 4 0 48 0 0 0 1 126 121 0 1 0 0
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days date . .
1183 2025-05-21 975 670 10 836 22 543 27 987 1 397 50 1 1 150 36 799 49 044 0 3 895 0 3
1182 2025-05-20 974 800 10 832 22 538 27 955 1 397 50 1 1 150 36 694 48 945 0 3 895 0 3
1181 2025-05-19 973 820 10 831 22 536 27 932 1 397 50 1 1 150 36 623 48 869 0 3 894 0 3
1180 2025-05-18 972 790 10 830 22 531 27 874 1 396 50 1 1 150 36 505 48 764 0 3 892 0 3
1179 2025-05-17 971 750 10 829 22 526 27 845 1 396 50 1 1 150 36 387 48 676 0 3 892 0 3
1178 2025-05-16 970 620 10 828 22 522 27 807 1 395 50 1 1 149 36 280 48 585 0 3 892 0 3
1177 2025-05-15 969 710 10 822 22 515 27 773 1 394 50 1 1 148 36 125 48 489 0 3 892 0 3
1176 2025-05-14 968 610 10 809 22 483 27 737 1 393 50 1 1 147 36 002 48 323 0 3 892 0 3
1175 2025-05-13 967 390 10 801 22 470 27 692 1 391 50 0 1 146 35 862 48 158 0 3 884 0 3
1174 2025-05-12 966 150 10 799 22 456 27 645 1 390 50 0 1 143 35 780 48 032 0 3 884 0 3
1173 2025-05-11 965 080 10 797 22 442 27 583 1 390 50 0 1 143 35 680 47 894 0 3 884 0 3
1172 2025-05-10 963 910 10 789 22 415 27 535 1 390 50 0 1 140 35 539 47 723 0 3 878 0 3
1171 2025-05-09 962 600 10 787 22 409 27 502 1 389 50 0 1 139 35 484 47 606 0 3 875 0 3
1170 2025-05-08 961 290 10 783 22 402 27 453 1 389 50 0 1 138 35 448 47 500 0 3 875 0 3
1169 2025-05-07 959 990 10 779 22 398 27 417 1 388 50 0 1 137 35 409 47 380 0 3 875 0 3
1168 2025-05-06 958 790 10 777 22 388 27 367 1 387 50 0 1 136 35 268 47 260 0 3 873 0 3
1167 2025-05-05 957 520 10 763 22 385 27 296 1 387 50 0 1 136 35 144 47 129 0 3 873 0 3
1166 2025-05-04 956 090 10 760 22 380 27 235 1 386 50 0 1 136 34 999 47 026 0 3 870 0 3
1165 2025-05-03 954 830 10 755 22 372 27 192 1 385 50 0 1 136 34 862 46 917 0 3 870 0 3
1164 2025-05-02 953 490 10 744 22 348 27 140 1 384 48 0 1 135 34 699 46 788 0 3 870 0 3
days date . .
1183 2025-05-21 824.7 9.2 19.1 23.7 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 31.1 41.4 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1182 2025-05-20 824.7 9.2 19.1 23.7 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 31.0 41.3 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1181 2025-05-19 824.6 9.2 19.1 23.7 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 31.0 41.3 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1180 2025-05-18 824.4 9.2 19.1 23.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.9 41.3 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1179 2025-05-17 824.2 9.2 19.1 23.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.9 41.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1178 2025-05-16 824.0 9.2 19.1 23.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.8 41.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1177 2025-05-15 823.9 9.2 19.1 23.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.7 41.1 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1176 2025-05-14 823.6 9.2 19.1 23.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.6 41.0 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1175 2025-05-13 823.3 9.2 19.1 23.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.5 40.9 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1174 2025-05-12 823.0 9.2 19.1 23.5 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.5 40.8 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1173 2025-05-11 822.7 9.2 19.1 23.5 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.4 40.8 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1172 2025-05-10 822.4 9.2 19.1 23.5 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.3 40.6 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1171 2025-05-09 822.0 9.2 19.1 23.5 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.3 40.6 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1170 2025-05-08 821.6 9.2 19.1 23.5 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.3 40.5 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1169 2025-05-07 821.2 9.2 19.2 23.5 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.3 40.5 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1168 2025-05-06 820.9 9.2 19.2 23.4 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.2 40.4 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1167 2025-05-05 820.5 9.2 19.2 23.4 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.1 40.3 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1166 2025-05-04 820.0 9.2 19.2 23.4 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 30.0 40.3 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1165 2025-05-03 819.6 9.2 19.2 23.3 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 29.9 40.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1164 2025-05-02 819.1 9.2 19.2 23.3 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 29.8 40.1 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
days date . .
1183 2025-05-21 45.3 -5.2 -14.1 8.3 -1.2 -1.0 73.9 57.6 -3.3 -2.5
1182 2025-05-20 155.3 -8.2 -17.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.0 40.0 34.7 -2.3 -2.5
1181 2025-05-19 205.4 -8.2 -14.1 34.3 -0.2 -1.0 87.0 63.7 -1.3 -2.5
1180 2025-05-18 215.6 -8.2 -14.1 5.4 -1.2 -1.0 87.1 46.7 -3.3 -2.5
1179 2025-05-17 305.8 -8.2 -15.1 14.4 -0.2 0.0 76.1 49.8 -3.3 -2.5
1178 2025-05-16 86.0 -3.2 -12.1 10.4 -0.2 0.0 124.2 54.8 -3.3 -2.5
1177 2025-05-15 276.1 3.8 12.9 12.4 -0.2 0.0 92.3 124.9 -3.3 -2.5
1176 2025-05-14 396.4 -1.2 -6.1 21.4 0.8 -0.4 0.7 0.0 109.4 124.0 -0.1 4.7 0.0 -2.5
1175 2025-05-13 416.7 -7.2 -5.1 23.4 -0.2 2.0 51.5 85.1 -3.3 -2.5
1174 2025-05-12 247.0 -7.2 -5.1 38.5 -1.2 -1.0 69.5 97.2 -3.3 -2.5
1173 2025-05-11 347.3 -1.2 7.9 24.5 -1.2 2.0 110.6 130.2 2.7 -2.5
1172 2025-05-10 487.6 -7.2 -13.1 9.5 -0.2 0.0 24.7 76.4 -0.3 -2.5
1171 2025-05-09 488.0 -5.2 -12.1 25.5 -1.2 0.0 5.7 65.4 -3.3 -2.5
1170 2025-05-08 478.4 -5.2 -15.1 12.5 -0.2 0.0 8.7 79.5 -3.3 -2.5
1169 2025-05-07 378.8 -7.2 -9.2 26.5 -0.2 0.0 110.7 79.5 -1.3 -2.5
1168 2025-05-06 449.1 4.8 -16.2 47.6 -1.2 -1.0 93.8 90.6 -3.3 -2.5
1167 2025-05-05 609.5 -6.2 -14.2 37.6 -0.2 -1.0 114.9 62.7 -0.3 -2.5
1166 2025-05-04 440.0 -4.2 -11.2 19.6 -0.2 -1.0 107.0 68.7 -3.3 -2.5
1165 2025-05-03 520.4 1.8 4.8 28.7 -0.2 0.0 133.1 88.8 -3.3 -2.5
1164 2025-05-02 350.9 -5.2 -19.2 24.7 -1.2 0.0 96.2 80.9 -2.3 -2.5
days date . .
1183 2025-05-21 1 009 4 9 36 1 0 0 0 114 103 0 0 0 0
1182 2025-05-20 1 059 4 10 38 1 0 0 1 119 112 0 2 0 0
1181 2025-05-19 1 096 5 11 41 1 0 0 1 120 120 0 1 0 0
1180 2025-05-18 1 101 5 13 42 1 0 0 1 118 124 0 1 0 0
1179 2025-05-17 1 120 6 16 44 1 0 0 1 121 136 0 2 0 0
1178 2025-05-16 1 146 6 16 44 1 0 0 1 114 140 0 2 0 0
1177 2025-05-15 1 203 6 16 46 1 0 0 1 97 141 0 2 0 0
1176 2025-05-14 1 231 4 12 46 1 0 0 1 85 135 0 2 0 0
1175 2025-05-13 1 229 3 12 46 1 0 0 1 85 128 0 2 0 0
1174 2025-05-12 1 233 5 10 50 0 0 0 1 91 129 0 2 0 0
1173 2025-05-11 1 284 5 9 50 1 0 0 1 97 124 0 2 0 0
1172 2025-05-10 1 297 5 6 49 1 0 0 1 97 115 0 1 0 0
1171 2025-05-09 1 301 6 9 52 1 0 0 1 112 117 0 1 0 0
1170 2025-05-08 1 281 6 8 52 1 0 0 1 125 119 0 1 0 0
1169 2025-05-07 1 254 7 8 54 1 0 0 1 139 121 0 1 0 0
1168 2025-05-06 1 259 7 8 53 1 0 0 1 135 123 0 1 0 0
1167 2025-05-05 1 234 5 8 44 1 0 0 1 133 130 0 2 0 0
1166 2025-05-04 1 181 5 9 42 1 0 0 1 126 136 0 1 0 0
1165 2025-05-03 1 167 5 10 40 0 0 0 1 117 135 0 1 0 0
1164 2025-05-02 1 123 5 7 38 0 0 0 1 110 136 0 1 0 0
days date . .
1183 2025-05-21 1 153 5 9 46 1 2 0 1 113 127 0 1 0 0
1182 2025-05-20 1 162 5 9 46 1 2 0 1 113 128 0 1 0 0
1181 2025-05-19 1 151 5 9 46 1 2 0 1 113 127 0 1 0 0
1180 2025-05-18 1 149 5 9 45 1 2 0 1 111 127 0 1 0 0
1179 2025-05-17 1 153 6 10 47 1 2 0 1 111 131 0 1 0 0
1178 2025-05-16 1 167 6 11 49 1 2 0 1 112 139 0 3 0 0
1177 2025-05-15 1 177 6 12 50 1 2 0 1 110 141 0 3 0 0
1176 2025-05-14 1 176 6 12 51 1 2 0 1 110 140 0 3 0 0
1175 2025-05-13 1 174 6 12 52 1 2 0 1 111 141 0 3 0 0
1174 2025-05-12 1 177 7 13 52 1 2 0 1 112 143 0 3 0 0
1173 2025-05-11 1 182 7 13 53 1 2 0 1 113 143 0 3 0 0
1172 2025-05-10 1 184 7 13 53 1 2 0 1 111 142 0 3 0 0
1171 2025-05-09 1 181 7 13 54 1 2 0 1 115 142 0 3 0 0
1170 2025-05-08 1 184 7 13 54 1 2 0 1 117 144 0 3 0 0
1169 2025-05-07 1 183 7 13 55 1 2 0 1 118 144 0 3 0 0
1168 2025-05-06 1 186 7 14 55 1 2 0 1 115 144 0 3 0 0
1167 2025-05-05 1 189 7 14 53 1 2 0 1 111 142 0 3 0 0
1166 2025-05-04 1 186 7 15 53 1 2 0 1 109 141 0 3 0 0
1165 2025-05-03 1 190 8 15 54 1 2 0 1 108 142 0 3 0 0
1164 2025-05-02 1 191 7 15 54 1 2 0 1 105 140 0 3 0 0
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