Loss Statistics

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2024 is key: the economics
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New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1120 2025-03-19 1 400 13 38 43 2 0 0 3 179 91 0 0 0 0
1119 2025-03-18 1 060 12 14 64 1 0 0 0 100 111 0 0 0 0
1118 2025-03-17 1 560 8 20 42 1 0 0 3 149 107 0 2 0 0
1117 2025-03-16 1 210 19 11 37 1 0 0 0 54 101 0 1 0 0
1116 2025-03-15 1 400 10 20 78 2 0 0 1 180 113 0 0 0 0
1115 2025-03-14 1 180 2 15 28 0 0 0 0 97 102 0 0 0 0
1114 2025-03-13 1 410 6 11 46 0 0 0 0 153 114 0 0 0 0
1113 2025-03-12 1 200 1 2 19 0 0 0 0 71 81 0 0 0 0
1112 2025-03-11 1 130 3 7 44 1 0 0 0 111 69 0 2 0 0
1111 2025-03-10 1 300 11 23 75 2 0 0 1 198 134 0 2 0 0
1110 2025-03-09 1 190 18 40 65 1 0 0 1 241 138 0 0 0 0
1109 2025-03-08 1 180 6 14 58 3 0 0 2 190 142 0 1 0 0
1108 2025-03-07 1 000 4 12 24 1 0 0 3 148 113 0 3 0 35
1107 2025-03-06 1 150 3 23 16 0 0 0 0 95 72 0 0 0 0
1106 2025-03-05 1 140 5 7 21 0 0 0 2 80 94 0 0 0 0
1105 2025-03-04 1 250 1 6 23 0 0 0 0 108 84 0 1 0 0
1104 2025-03-03 1 340 3 8 45 0 0 0 1 86 101 0 0 0 0
1103 2025-03-02 1 350 11 16 60 0 0 0 2 61 109 0 0 0 0
1102 2025-03-01 1 110 8 25 51 2 0 0 3 192 117 0 5 0 0
1101 2025-02-28 1 050 11 15 61 1 0 0 1 128 107 0 0 0 0
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days date . .
1120 2025-03-19 897 520 10 377 21 531 24 666 1 330 368 330 1 092 29 874 40 910 80 3 766 31 2 917
1119 2025-03-18 896 120 10 364 21 493 24 623 1 328 368 330 1 089 29 695 40 819 80 3 766 31 2 917
1118 2025-03-17 895 060 10 352 21 479 24 559 1 327 368 330 1 089 29 595 40 708 80 3 766 31 2 917
1117 2025-03-16 893 500 10 344 21 459 24 517 1 326 368 330 1 086 29 446 40 601 80 3 764 31 2 917
1116 2025-03-15 892 290 10 325 21 448 24 480 1 325 368 330 1 086 29 392 40 500 80 3 763 31 2 917
1115 2025-03-14 890 890 10 315 21 428 24 402 1 323 368 330 1 085 29 212 40 387 80 3 763 31 2 917
1114 2025-03-13 889 710 10 313 21 413 24 374 1 323 368 330 1 085 29 115 40 285 80 3 763 31 2 917
1113 2025-03-12 888 300 10 307 21 402 24 328 1 323 368 330 1 085 28 962 40 171 80 3 763 31 2 917
1112 2025-03-11 887 100 10 306 21 400 24 309 1 323 368 330 1 085 28 891 40 090 80 3 763 31 2 917
1111 2025-03-10 885 970 10 303 21 393 24 265 1 322 368 330 1 085 28 780 40 021 80 3 761 31 2 917
1110 2025-03-09 884 670 10 292 21 370 24 190 1 320 368 330 1 084 28 582 39 887 80 3 759 31 2 917
1109 2025-03-08 883 480 10 274 21 330 24 125 1 319 368 330 1 083 28 341 39 749 80 3 759 31 2 917
1108 2025-03-07 882 300 10 268 21 316 24 067 1 316 368 330 1 081 28 151 39 607 80 3 758 31 2 917
1107 2025-03-06 881 300 10 264 21 304 24 043 1 315 368 330 1 078 28 003 39 494 80 3 755 31 2 882
1106 2025-03-05 880 150 10 261 21 281 24 027 1 315 368 330 1 078 27 908 39 422 80 3 755 31 2 882
1105 2025-03-04 879 010 10 256 21 274 24 006 1 315 368 330 1 076 27 828 39 328 80 3 755 31 2 882
1104 2025-03-03 877 760 10 255 21 268 23 983 1 315 368 330 1 076 27 720 39 244 80 3 754 31 2 882
1103 2025-03-02 876 420 10 252 21 260 23 938 1 315 368 330 1 075 27 634 39 143 80 3 754 31 2 882
1102 2025-03-01 875 070 10 241 21 244 23 878 1 315 368 330 1 073 27 573 39 034 80 3 754 31 2 882
1101 2025-02-28 873 960 10 233 21 219 23 827 1 313 368 330 1 070 27 381 38 917 80 3 749 31 2 882
days date . .
1120 2025-03-19 801.4 9.3 19.2 22.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.7 36.5 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1119 2025-03-18 800.8 9.3 19.2 22.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.5 36.4 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1118 2025-03-17 800.6 9.3 19.2 22.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.4 36.3 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1117 2025-03-16 799.9 9.3 19.2 21.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.3 36.3 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1116 2025-03-15 799.5 9.3 19.2 21.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.3 36.2 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1115 2025-03-14 799.0 9.3 19.2 21.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.2 36.1 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1114 2025-03-13 798.7 9.3 19.2 21.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.1 36.1 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1113 2025-03-12 798.1 9.3 19.2 21.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.0 36.0 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1112 2025-03-11 797.8 9.3 19.2 21.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 26.0 36.0 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1111 2025-03-10 797.5 9.3 19.3 21.8 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.9 35.9 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1110 2025-03-09 797.0 9.3 19.3 21.8 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.7 35.9 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1109 2025-03-08 796.6 9.3 19.2 21.8 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.5 35.8 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1108 2025-03-07 796.3 9.3 19.2 21.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.4 35.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1107 2025-03-06 796.1 9.3 19.2 21.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.3 35.6 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1106 2025-03-05 795.8 9.3 19.2 21.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.2 35.6 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1105 2025-03-04 795.5 9.3 19.3 21.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.2 35.5 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1104 2025-03-03 795.1 9.3 19.3 21.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.1 35.5 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1103 2025-03-02 794.6 9.3 19.3 21.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.0 35.4 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1102 2025-03-01 794.1 9.3 19.3 21.7 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 25.0 35.3 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1101 2025-02-28 793.8 9.3 19.3 21.6 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 24.8 35.3 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
days date . .
1120 2025-03-19 598.6 3.7 18.8 21.0 0.8 2.0 152.4 54.5 -3.4 -2.6
1119 2025-03-18 259.2 2.7 -5.2 42.0 -0.2 -1.0 73.5 74.6 -3.4 -2.6
1118 2025-03-17 759.4 -1.3 0.8 20.0 -0.2 2.0 122.6 70.7 -1.4 -2.6
1117 2025-03-16 410.1 9.7 -8.2 15.1 -0.2 -1.0 27.7 64.7 -2.4 -2.6
1116 2025-03-15 600.5 0.7 0.8 56.1 0.8 0.0 153.7 76.8 -3.4 -2.6
1115 2025-03-14 381.0 -7.3 -4.2 6.1 -1.2 -1.0 70.8 65.9 -3.4 -2.6
1114 2025-03-13 611.3 -3.3 -8.2 24.1 -1.2 -1.0 126.9 77.9 -3.4 -2.6
1113 2025-03-12 401.9 -8.3 -17.2 -2.9 -1.2 -1.0 45.0 45.0 -3.4 -2.6
1112 2025-03-11 332.2 -6.3 -12.2 22.1 -0.2 -1.0 85.0 33.0 -1.4 -2.6
1111 2025-03-10 502.5 1.7 3.7 53.2 0.8 0.0 172.1 98.1 -1.4 -2.6
1110 2025-03-09 393.0 8.7 20.7 43.2 -0.2 0.0 215.3 102.1 -3.4 -2.6
1109 2025-03-08 383.4 -3.3 -5.2 36.2 1.8 1.0 164.5 106.2 -2.4 -2.6
1108 2025-03-07 203.7 -5.3 -7.2 2.3 -0.2 2.0 122.6 77.3 -0.4 32.4
1107 2025-03-06 353.9 -6.3 3.8 -5.7 -1.2 -1.0 69.7 36.4 -3.4 -2.6
1106 2025-03-05 344.2 -4.3 -12.2 -0.7 -1.2 1.0 54.8 58.4 -3.4 -2.6
1105 2025-03-04 454.5 -8.3 -13.3 1.3 -1.2 -1.0 82.8 48.5 -2.4 -2.6
1104 2025-03-03 544.9 -6.3 -11.3 23.3 -1.2 0.0 60.9 65.5 -3.4 -2.6
1103 2025-03-02 555.4 1.7 -3.3 38.3 -1.2 1.0 36.0 73.6 -3.4 -2.6
1102 2025-03-01 315.9 -1.3 5.7 29.3 0.8 2.0 167.0 81.7 1.6 -2.6
1101 2025-02-28 256.2 1.7 -4.3 39.4 -0.2 0.0 103.2 71.7 -3.4 -2.6
days date . .
1120 2025-03-19 1 317 10 18 48 1 0 0 1 130 106 0 0 0 0
1119 2025-03-18 1 289 8 13 45 1 0 0 1 115 104 0 0 0 0
1118 2025-03-17 1 299 7 12 42 1 0 0 1 116 98 0 1 0 0
1117 2025-03-16 1 261 7 13 47 1 0 0 0 123 102 0 1 0 0
1116 2025-03-15 1 259 7 17 51 1 0 0 0 150 107 0 1 0 0
1115 2025-03-14 1 227 7 16 48 1 0 0 1 152 111 0 1 0 0
1114 2025-03-13 1 201 7 16 47 1 0 0 1 159 113 0 1 0 5
1113 2025-03-12 1 164 7 17 43 1 0 0 1 151 107 0 1 0 5
1112 2025-03-11 1 156 7 18 43 1 0 0 1 152 109 0 1 0 5
1111 2025-03-10 1 173 7 18 40 1 0 0 1 151 111 0 1 0 5
1110 2025-03-09 1 179 6 16 36 1 0 0 1 135 106 0 1 0 5
1109 2025-03-08 1 201 5 12 35 1 0 0 1 110 102 0 1 0 5
1108 2025-03-07 1 191 5 14 34 0 0 0 2 110 99 0 1 0 5
1107 2025-03-06 1 199 6 14 40 0 0 0 1 107 98 0 1 0 0
1106 2025-03-05 1 186 7 13 45 1 0 0 1 118 107 0 1 0 0
1105 2025-03-04 1 187 8 14 52 1 0 0 1 127 114 0 2 0 0
1104 2025-03-03 1 176 10 16 53 1 0 0 1 139 119 0 1 0 0
1103 2025-03-02 1 170 11 16 51 1 0 0 2 144 124 0 2 0 0
1102 2025-03-01 1 127 10 15 48 1 0 0 1 167 125 0 2 0 0
1101 2025-02-28 1 137 10 13 49 1 0 0 1 156 121 0 1 0 0
days date . .
1120 2025-03-19 1 214 9 16 48 1 0 0 1 140 113 0 1 0 1
1119 2025-03-18 1 207 9 15 48 1 0 0 1 140 113 0 1 0 1
1118 2025-03-17 1 222 9 16 47 1 0 0 1 141 114 0 1 0 1
1117 2025-03-16 1 228 9 18 46 1 0 0 1 138 113 0 1 0 1
1116 2025-03-15 1 227 9 18 47 1 0 0 1 140 114 0 1 0 1
1115 2025-03-14 1 220 9 18 47 1 0 0 1 139 115 0 1 0 1
1114 2025-03-13 1 223 10 18 48 1 0 0 1 141 118 0 1 0 1
1113 2025-03-12 1 214 10 19 48 1 0 0 1 141 118 0 1 0 1
1112 2025-03-11 1 220 10 20 49 1 0 0 1 143 121 0 1 0 2
1111 2025-03-10 1 222 10 20 49 1 0 0 1 144 122 0 1 0 2
1110 2025-03-09 1 227 10 20 47 1 0 0 1 140 122 0 1 0 2
1109 2025-03-08 1 228 10 19 46 1 0 0 1 135 120 0 1 0 2
1108 2025-03-07 1 233 10 20 45 1 0 0 1 133 119 0 1 0 2
1107 2025-03-06 1 241 11 20 46 1 0 0 1 131 119 0 1 0 0
1106 2025-03-05 1 241 11 19 47 1 0 0 1 131 122 0 1 0 0
1105 2025-03-04 1 245 11 20 49 1 0 0 1 131 123 0 1 0 0
1104 2025-03-03 1 247 12 20 50 1 0 0 1 132 123 0 1 0 0
1103 2025-03-02 1 246 12 21 50 1 0 0 1 132 123 0 1 0 0
1102 2025-03-01 1 249 12 21 49 1 0 0 1 134 122 0 1 0 0
1101 2025-02-28 1 266 11 20 49 1 0 0 1 130 121 0 1 0 0
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