Loss Statistics

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2024 is key: the economics
Big Ticket Items
Refineries & Disruptions
Boycott
New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1014 2024-12-03 1 670 7 31 26 0 0 0 1 29 80 0 1 0 0
1013 2024-12-02 1 780 8 22 23 0 0 0 0 31 60 0 8 0 3
1012 2024-12-01 1 790 9 28 30 0 0 0 0 83 99 0 0 0 0
1011 2024-11-30 1 730 6 14 14 0 0 0 0 11 76 0 2 0 1
1010 2024-11-29 1 740 5 12 23 2 0 0 0 42 72 0 2 0 0
1009 2024-11-28 2 030 8 33 34 0 0 0 1 89 86 0 3 0 86
1008 2024-11-27 1 220 1 2 22 0 0 0 0 45 60 0 10 0 0
1007 2024-11-26 1 580 14 48 24 1 0 0 1 64 84 0 4 0 0
1006 2024-11-25 1 480 6 20 19 0 0 0 0 72 94 0 2 0 1
1005 2024-11-24 1 610 6 27 22 0 0 0 0 114 84 0 2 0 0
1004 2024-11-23 1 020 4 17 5 0 0 0 0 1 14 0 1 0 0
1003 2024-11-22 1 420 20 36 24 0 0 0 0 105 73 0 3 0 0
1002 2024-11-21 1 050 1 13 5 1 0 0 1 1 32 0 1 0 8
1001 2024-11-20 1 510 8 24 50 1 0 0 2 57 97 0 0 0 0
1000 2024-11-19 1 690 8 27 49 0 0 0 2 91 100 0 2 0 2
999 2024-11-18 1 610 17 33 46 0 0 0 0 38 120 0 17 0 1
998 2024-11-17 1 560 15 38 30 0 0 0 0 99 107 0 2 0 112
997 2024-11-16 1 640 12 27 36 0 0 0 0 60 85 0 2 0 0
996 2024-11-15 1 650 8 26 28 0 0 0 0 28 69 0 6 0 0
995 2024-11-14 1 520 11 21 20 0 0 0 2 34 77 0 16 0 1
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days date . .
1014 2024-12-03 747 530 9 493 19 441 20 959 1 265 367 329 1 008 19 916 30 650 77 3 613 29 2 769
1013 2024-12-02 745 860 9 486 19 410 20 933 1 265 367 329 1 007 19 887 30 570 77 3 612 29 2 769
1012 2024-12-01 744 080 9 478 19 388 20 910 1 265 367 329 1 007 19 856 30 510 77 3 604 29 2 766
1011 2024-11-30 742 290 9 469 19 360 20 880 1 265 367 329 1 007 19 773 30 411 77 3 604 29 2 766
1010 2024-11-29 740 560 9 463 19 346 20 866 1 265 367 329 1 007 19 762 30 335 77 3 602 29 2 765
1009 2024-11-28 738 820 9 458 19 334 20 843 1 263 367 329 1 007 19 720 30 263 77 3 600 29 2 765
1008 2024-11-27 736 790 9 450 19 301 20 809 1 263 367 329 1 006 19 631 30 177 77 3 597 29 2 679
1007 2024-11-26 735 570 9 449 19 299 20 787 1 263 367 329 1 006 19 586 30 117 77 3 587 29 2 679
1006 2024-11-25 733 990 9 435 19 251 20 763 1 262 367 329 1 005 19 522 30 033 77 3 583 29 2 679
1005 2024-11-24 732 510 9 429 19 231 20 744 1 262 367 329 1 005 19 450 29 939 77 3 581 29 2 678
1004 2024-11-23 730 900 9 423 19 204 20 722 1 262 367 329 1 005 19 336 29 855 77 3 579 29 2 678
1003 2024-11-22 729 880 9 419 19 187 20 717 1 262 367 329 1 005 19 335 29 841 77 3 578 29 2 678
1002 2024-11-21 728 460 9 399 19 151 20 693 1 262 367 329 1 005 19 230 29 768 77 3 575 29 2 678
1001 2024-11-20 727 410 9 398 19 138 20 688 1 261 367 329 1 004 19 229 29 736 77 3 574 29 2 670
1000 2024-11-19 725 900 9 390 19 114 20 638 1 260 367 329 1 002 19 172 29 639 77 3 574 29 2 670
999 2024-11-18 724 210 9 382 19 087 20 589 1 260 367 329 1 000 19 081 29 539 77 3 572 29 2 668
998 2024-11-17 722 600 9 365 19 054 20 543 1 260 367 329 1 000 19 043 29 419 77 3 555 29 2 667
997 2024-11-16 721 040 9 350 19 016 20 513 1 260 367 329 1 000 18 944 29 312 77 3 553 29 2 555
996 2024-11-15 719 400 9 338 18 989 20 477 1 260 367 329 1 000 18 884 29 227 77 3 551 29 2 555
995 2024-11-14 717 750 9 330 18 963 20 449 1 260 367 329 1 000 18 856 29 158 77 3 545 29 2 555
days date . .
1014 2024-12-03 737.2 9.4 19.2 20.7 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.6 30.1 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.7
1013 2024-12-02 736.3 9.4 19.2 20.7 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.6 30.1 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.7
1012 2024-12-01 735.3 9.4 19.2 20.7 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.6 30.1 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.7
1011 2024-11-30 734.2 9.4 19.1 20.7 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.5 30.0 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.7
1010 2024-11-29 733.2 9.4 19.2 20.7 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.5 30.0 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.7
1009 2024-11-28 732.2 9.4 19.2 20.7 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.5 29.9 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.7
1008 2024-11-27 730.9 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.4 29.9 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
1007 2024-11-26 730.5 9.4 19.2 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.4 29.8 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
1006 2024-11-25 729.6 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.4 29.8 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
1005 2024-11-24 728.9 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.3 29.7 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
1004 2024-11-23 728.0 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.2 29.7 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
1003 2024-11-22 727.7 9.4 19.1 20.7 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.3 29.7 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
1002 2024-11-21 727.0 9.4 19.1 20.7 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.2 29.6 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
1001 2024-11-20 726.7 9.4 19.1 20.7 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.2 29.6 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
1000 2024-11-19 725.9 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.1 29.6 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
999 2024-11-18 724.9 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.1 29.5 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
998 2024-11-17 724.0 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.1 29.4 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.6
997 2024-11-16 723.2 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 19.0 29.3 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.5
996 2024-11-15 722.3 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.9 29.3 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.5
995 2024-11-14 721.4 9.4 19.1 20.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 18.9 29.2 0.1 3.6 0.0 2.5
days date . .
1014 2024-12-03 932.8 -2.4 11.8 5.3 -1.2 0.0 9.4 49.9 -2.6 -2.7
1013 2024-12-02 1 043.7 -1.4 2.8 2.3 -1.2 -1.0 11.4 29.9 4.4 0.3
1012 2024-12-01 1 054.7 -0.4 8.8 9.3 -1.3 -1.0 63.4 68.9 -3.6 -2.7
1011 2024-11-30 995.8 -3.4 -5.1 -6.7 -1.3 -1.0 -8.5 46.0 -1.6 -1.7
1010 2024-11-29 1 006.8 -4.4 -7.2 2.3 0.7 -1.0 22.5 42.0 -1.6 -2.7
1009 2024-11-28 1 297.8 -1.4 13.8 13.3 -1.3 0.0 69.5 56.1 -0.6 83.3
1008 2024-11-27 489.1 -8.4 -17.1 1.4 -1.3 -1.0 25.6 30.1 6.4 -2.6
1007 2024-11-26 849.5 4.6 28.8 3.4 -0.3 0.0 44.6 54.2 0.4 -2.6
1006 2024-11-25 750.4 -3.4 0.9 -1.6 -1.3 -1.0 52.6 64.2 -1.6 -1.6
1005 2024-11-24 881.1 -3.4 7.9 1.4 -1.3 -1.0 94.7 54.3 -1.6 -2.6
1004 2024-11-23 292.0 -5.4 -2.1 -15.6 -1.3 -1.0 -18.2 -15.7 -2.6 -2.6
1003 2024-11-22 692.3 10.6 16.9 3.3 -1.3 -1.0 85.7 43.3 -0.6 -2.6
1002 2024-11-21 323.0 -8.4 -6.1 -15.7 -0.3 0.0 -18.2 2.4 -2.6 5.4
1001 2024-11-20 783.3 -1.4 4.9 29.3 -0.3 1.0 37.8 67.4 -3.6 -2.6
1000 2024-11-19 964.1 -1.4 7.9 28.4 -1.3 1.0 71.9 70.4 -1.6 -0.6
999 2024-11-18 885.1 7.6 13.9 25.4 -1.3 -1.0 18.9 90.5 13.4 -1.6
998 2024-11-17 836.0 5.6 18.9 9.4 -1.3 -1.0 79.9 77.6 -1.6 109.4
997 2024-11-16 916.8 2.6 7.9 15.4 -1.3 -1.0 41.0 55.7 -1.6 -2.5
996 2024-11-15 927.7 -1.4 6.9 7.4 -1.3 -1.0 9.1 39.7 2.4 -2.5
995 2024-11-14 798.6 1.6 1.9 -0.6 -1.3 1.0 15.1 47.8 12.4 -1.5
days date . .
1014 2024-12-03 1 709 6 20 25 0 0 0 0 47 76 0 4 0 13
1013 2024-12-02 1 696 7 23 24 0 0 0 0 52 77 0 4 0 13
1012 2024-12-01 1 653 7 22 24 0 0 0 0 58 82 0 3 0 13
1011 2024-11-30 1 627 7 22 23 0 0 0 0 62 79 0 4 0 13
1010 2024-11-29 1 526 6 23 21 0 0 0 0 61 71 0 3 0 12
1009 2024-11-28 1 480 8 26 21 0 0 0 0 70 71 0 4 0 12
1008 2024-11-27 1 340 7 23 17 0 0 0 0 57 63 0 3 0 1
1007 2024-11-26 1 381 8 26 21 0 0 0 1 59 68 0 2 0 1
1006 2024-11-25 1 397 8 23 25 0 0 0 1 63 71 0 2 0 2
1005 2024-11-24 1 416 9 25 29 0 0 0 1 58 74 0 4 0 2
1004 2024-11-23 1 409 10 27 30 0 0 0 1 56 78 0 4 0 18
1003 2024-11-22 1 497 12 28 34 0 0 0 1 64 88 0 4 0 18
1002 2024-11-21 1 530 10 27 35 0 0 0 1 53 87 0 4 0 18
1001 2024-11-20 1 597 11 28 37 0 0 0 1 58 94 0 6 0 17
1000 2024-11-19 1 623 13 32 39 0 0 0 1 58 97 0 6 0 17
999 2024-11-18 1 634 15 35 40 0 0 0 0 53 97 0 7 0 16
998 2024-11-17 1 683 16 42 39 1 0 0 0 57 89 0 5 0 16
997 2024-11-16 1 713 14 42 39 1 0 0 0 51 91 0 7 0 0
996 2024-11-15 1 671 14 42 39 1 0 0 0 48 96 0 7 0 0
995 2024-11-14 1 673 14 44 38 1 0 0 0 51 96 0 6 0 1
days date . .
1014 2024-12-03 1 566 10 30 29 0 0 0 0 56 81 0 4 0 7
1013 2024-12-02 1 554 10 30 30 0 0 0 0 58 81 0 4 0 7
1012 2024-12-01 1 541 10 30 29 0 0 0 0 59 80 0 4 0 7
1011 2024-11-30 1 524 10 30 29 0 0 0 0 57 79 0 4 0 7
1010 2024-11-29 1 515 10 30 30 0 0 0 0 58 79 0 4 0 7
1009 2024-11-28 1 501 11 30 31 0 0 0 1 59 81 0 4 0 7
1008 2024-11-27 1 485 11 30 31 0 0 0 1 57 81 0 4 0 4
1007 2024-11-26 1 490 11 30 32 1 0 0 1 58 82 0 4 0 4
1006 2024-11-25 1 493 11 30 33 0 0 0 1 58 83 0 5 0 4
1005 2024-11-24 1 492 11 30 34 0 0 0 1 58 83 0 5 0 4
1004 2024-11-23 1 494 11 31 34 1 0 0 1 57 83 0 5 0 4
1003 2024-11-22 1 515 11 31 35 1 0 0 1 59 85 0 6 0 4
1002 2024-11-21 1 509 10 31 35 1 0 0 1 59 85 0 6 0 4
1001 2024-11-20 1 522 11 31 37 1 0 0 1 61 88 0 6 0 4
1000 2024-11-19 1 517 11 31 36 1 0 0 1 62 87 0 7 0 4
999 2024-11-18 1 518 11 33 36 1 0 0 1 60 85 0 7 0 4
998 2024-11-17 1 509 11 33 35 1 0 0 1 61 83 0 6 0 4
997 2024-11-16 1 503 11 32 34 1 0 0 1 60 80 0 7 0 0
996 2024-11-15 1 499 11 33 34 1 0 0 1 60 81 0 7 0 0
995 2024-11-14 1 491 11 33 34 1 0 0 1 61 81 0 7 0 0
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