Loss Statistics

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from .. to trends (7-day µ)
2024 is key: the economics
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Refineries & Disruptions
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New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1086 2025-02-13 1 200 17 16 81 4 0 0 3 152 152 0 1 0 0
1085 2025-02-12 1 250 17 23 58 2 0 0 2 153 168 0 2 0 6
1084 2025-02-11 1 150 9 27 53 1 0 0 1 164 121 0 1 0 1
1083 2025-02-10 1 390 13 31 44 2 0 0 1 132 169 0 1 0 2
1082 2025-02-09 1 170 9 16 35 0 0 0 3 137 109 0 1 0 0
1081 2025-02-08 1 460 11 20 24 0 1 0 0 83 127 0 1 0 0
1080 2025-02-07 1 210 6 22 35 2 0 0 0 102 95 0 0 0 0
1079 2025-02-06 1 340 10 18 32 0 0 0 1 116 96 0 1 0 0
1078 2025-02-05 1 240 18 16 46 2 0 0 2 83 133 0 2 0 0
1077 2025-02-04 1 140 9 12 52 0 0 0 0 99 157 0 2 0 0
1076 2025-02-03 1 270 18 24 66 1 0 0 0 92 123 0 2 0 0
1075 2025-02-02 1 300 12 18 51 1 0 0 3 118 89 0 2 0 0
1074 2025-02-01 1 320 6 14 45 1 0 0 0 99 80 0 2 0 0
1073 2025-01-31 1 430 9 22 48 1 0 0 0 121 77 0 1 0 0
1072 2025-01-30 1 640 3 17 33 1 0 0 0 63 101 0 1 0 0
1071 2025-01-29 1 240 4 17 17 0 0 0 0 54 85 0 4 0 0
1070 2025-01-28 1 570 10 24 29 1 0 0 0 57 97 0 3 0 1
1069 2025-01-27 1 380 5 12 27 0 0 0 0 72 86 0 2 0 0
1068 2025-01-26 1 430 3 12 16 0 0 0 0 74 59 0 1 0 0
1067 2025-01-25 1 720 9 4 14 0 0 0 0 49 53 0 0 0 0
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days date . .
1086 2025-02-13 855 480 10 057 20 901 23 072 1 294 368 330 1 054 25 203 37 080 80 3 730 31 2 881
1085 2025-02-12 854 280 10 040 20 885 22 991 1 290 368 330 1 051 25 051 36 928 80 3 729 31 2 881
1084 2025-02-11 853 030 10 023 20 862 22 933 1 288 368 330 1 049 24 898 36 760 80 3 727 31 2 875
1083 2025-02-10 851 880 10 014 20 835 22 880 1 287 368 330 1 048 24 734 36 639 80 3 726 31 2 874
1082 2025-02-09 850 490 10 001 20 804 22 836 1 285 368 330 1 047 24 602 36 470 80 3 725 31 2 872
1081 2025-02-08 849 320 9 992 20 788 22 801 1 285 368 330 1 044 24 465 36 361 80 3 724 31 2 872
1080 2025-02-07 847 860 9 981 20 768 22 777 1 285 367 330 1 044 24 382 36 234 80 3 723 31 2 872
1079 2025-02-06 846 650 9 975 20 746 22 742 1 283 367 330 1 044 24 280 36 139 80 3 723 31 2 872
1078 2025-02-05 845 310 9 965 20 728 22 710 1 283 367 330 1 043 24 164 36 043 80 3 722 31 2 872
1077 2025-02-04 844 070 9 947 20 712 22 664 1 281 367 330 1 041 24 081 35 910 80 3 720 31 2 872
1076 2025-02-03 842 930 9 938 20 700 22 612 1 281 367 330 1 041 23 982 35 753 80 3 718 31 2 872
1075 2025-02-02 841 660 9 920 20 676 22 546 1 280 367 330 1 041 23 890 35 630 80 3 716 31 2 872
1074 2025-02-01 840 360 9 908 20 658 22 495 1 279 367 330 1 038 23 772 35 541 80 3 714 31 2 872
1073 2025-01-31 839 040 9 902 20 644 22 450 1 278 367 330 1 038 23 673 35 461 80 3 712 31 2 872
1072 2025-01-30 837 610 9 893 20 622 22 402 1 277 367 330 1 038 23 552 35 384 80 3 711 31 2 872
1071 2025-01-29 835 970 9 890 20 605 22 369 1 276 367 330 1 038 23 489 35 283 80 3 710 31 2 872
1070 2025-01-28 834 730 9 886 20 588 22 352 1 276 367 330 1 038 23 435 35 198 80 3 706 31 2 872
1069 2025-01-27 833 160 9 876 20 564 22 323 1 275 367 330 1 038 23 378 35 101 80 3 703 31 2 871
1068 2025-01-26 831 780 9 871 20 552 22 296 1 275 367 330 1 038 23 306 35 015 80 3 701 31 2 871
1067 2025-01-25 830 350 9 868 20 540 22 280 1 275 367 330 1 038 23 232 34 956 80 3 700 31 2 871
days date . .
1086 2025-02-13 787.7 9.3 19.2 21.2 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 23.2 34.1 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1085 2025-02-12 787.4 9.3 19.2 21.2 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 23.1 34.0 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1084 2025-02-11 786.9 9.2 19.2 21.2 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 22.9 33.8 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1083 2025-02-10 786.6 9.2 19.2 21.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 22.8 33.8 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1082 2025-02-09 786.0 9.2 19.2 21.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 22.7 33.6 0.1 3.4 0.0 2.6
1081 2025-02-08 785.7 9.2 19.2 21.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 22.6 33.6 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
1080 2025-02-07 785.1 9.2 19.2 21.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 22.6 33.5 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
1079 2025-02-06 784.7 9.2 19.2 21.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 22.5 33.4 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
1078 2025-02-05 784.1 9.2 19.2 21.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 22.4 33.4 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
1077 2025-02-04 783.7 9.2 19.2 21.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 22.3 33.3 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
1076 2025-02-03 783.4 9.2 19.2 21.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 22.3 33.1 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
1075 2025-02-02 782.9 9.2 19.2 21.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 22.2 33.1 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.6
1074 2025-02-01 782.5 9.2 19.2 20.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 22.1 33.0 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1073 2025-01-31 782.0 9.2 19.2 20.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 22.0 33.0 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1072 2025-01-30 781.4 9.2 19.2 20.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 21.9 32.9 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1071 2025-01-29 780.6 9.2 19.2 20.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 21.9 32.9 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1070 2025-01-28 780.1 9.2 19.2 20.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 21.9 32.8 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1069 2025-01-27 779.4 9.2 19.2 20.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 21.8 32.8 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1068 2025-01-26 778.8 9.2 19.2 20.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 21.8 32.7 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
1067 2025-01-25 778.2 9.2 19.3 20.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 21.7 32.7 0.1 3.5 0.0 2.7
days date . .
1086 2025-02-13 412.3 7.7 -3.2 59.8 2.8 2.0 128.8 117.9 -2.4 -2.6
1085 2025-02-12 462.6 7.7 3.8 36.8 0.8 1.0 129.9 134.0 -1.4 3.4
1084 2025-02-11 363.1 -0.2 7.8 31.8 -0.2 0.0 141.1 87.2 -2.4 -1.6
1083 2025-02-10 603.4 3.8 11.8 22.9 0.8 0.0 109.2 135.2 -2.4 -0.6
1082 2025-02-09 384.0 -0.2 -3.2 13.9 -1.2 2.0 114.3 75.4 -2.4 -2.6
1081 2025-02-08 674.3 1.8 0.8 2.9 -1.2 -1.0 60.4 93.4 -2.5 -2.6
1080 2025-02-07 424.9 -3.2 2.8 13.9 0.8 -1.0 79.4 61.5 -3.5 -2.6
1079 2025-02-06 555.3 0.8 -1.2 10.9 -1.2 0.0 93.5 62.6 -2.5 -2.6
1078 2025-02-05 455.9 8.8 -3.2 24.9 0.8 1.0 60.6 99.6 -1.5 -2.6
1077 2025-02-04 356.3 -0.2 -7.2 31.0 -1.2 -1.0 76.7 123.7 -1.5 -2.6
1076 2025-02-03 486.6 8.8 4.8 45.0 -0.2 -1.0 69.7 89.9 -1.5 -2.6
1075 2025-02-02 517.1 2.8 -1.2 30.0 -0.2 2.0 95.8 55.9 -1.5 -2.6
1074 2025-02-01 537.5 -3.2 -5.2 24.1 -0.2 -1.0 76.9 47.0 -1.5 -2.7
1073 2025-01-31 648.0 -0.2 2.8 27.1 -0.2 -1.0 99.0 44.0 -2.5 -2.7
1072 2025-01-30 858.6 -6.2 -2.2 12.1 -0.2 -1.0 41.1 68.1 -2.5 -2.7
1071 2025-01-29 459.4 -5.2 -2.2 -3.9 -1.2 -1.0 32.1 52.1 0.5 -2.7
1070 2025-01-28 789.9 0.8 4.8 8.1 -0.2 -1.0 35.1 64.2 -0.5 -1.7
1069 2025-01-27 600.6 -4.2 -7.2 6.1 -1.2 -1.0 50.2 53.2 -1.5 -2.7
1068 2025-01-26 651.2 -6.2 -7.2 -4.9 -1.2 -1.0 52.2 26.3 -2.5 -2.7
1067 2025-01-25 941.8 -0.2 -15.3 -6.9 -1.2 -1.0 27.3 20.3 -3.5 -2.7
days date . .
1086 2025-02-13 1 261 12 22 47 2 0 0 1 132 134 0 1 0 1
1085 2025-02-12 1 281 11 22 40 1 0 0 1 127 126 0 1 0 1
1084 2025-02-11 1 280 11 21 38 1 0 0 1 117 121 0 1 0 0
1083 2025-02-10 1 279 11 19 38 1 0 0 1 107 127 0 1 0 0
1082 2025-02-09 1 261 12 18 41 1 0 0 1 102 120 0 1 0 0
1081 2025-02-08 1 280 12 19 44 1 0 0 1 99 117 0 1 0 0
1080 2025-02-07 1 260 11 18 47 1 0 0 1 101 110 0 2 0 0
1079 2025-02-06 1 291 12 18 49 1 0 0 1 104 108 0 2 0 0
1078 2025-02-05 1 334 11 18 49 1 0 0 1 96 109 0 2 0 0
1077 2025-02-04 1 334 9 18 45 1 0 0 0 92 102 0 2 0 0
1076 2025-02-03 1 396 9 19 41 1 0 0 0 86 93 0 2 0 0
1075 2025-02-02 1 411 7 18 36 1 0 0 0 83 88 0 2 0 0
1074 2025-02-01 1 430 6 17 31 1 0 0 0 77 84 0 2 0 0
1073 2025-01-31 1 487 6 15 26 0 0 0 0 70 80 0 2 0 0
1072 2025-01-30 1 519 6 18 21 0 0 0 0 60 80 0 2 0 0
1071 2025-01-29 1 499 6 17 22 0 0 0 0 58 78 0 2 0 0
1070 2025-01-28 1 513 6 16 29 0 0 0 0 61 76 0 1 0 0
1069 2025-01-27 1 567 6 14 33 0 0 0 0 73 84 0 1 0 0
1068 2025-01-26 1 599 7 15 38 0 0 0 0 81 99 0 1 0 0
1067 2025-01-25 1 636 8 20 38 0 0 0 1 92 103 0 2 0 0
days date . .
1086 2025-02-13 1 422 9 19 38 1 0 0 1 95 108 0 2 0 2
1085 2025-02-12 1 434 9 19 37 1 0 0 1 94 110 0 2 0 2
1084 2025-02-11 1 437 9 19 37 1 0 0 1 91 107 0 2 0 1
1083 2025-02-10 1 449 9 19 36 1 0 0 1 91 107 0 2 0 1
1082 2025-02-09 1 461 8 18 35 0 0 0 1 89 103 0 2 0 1
1081 2025-02-08 1 474 8 18 35 0 0 0 1 87 102 0 2 0 1
1080 2025-02-07 1 487 8 19 35 0 0 0 1 87 101 0 2 0 1
1079 2025-02-06 1 494 9 18 35 0 0 0 1 86 100 0 2 0 1
1078 2025-02-05 1 505 9 18 35 0 0 0 1 83 100 0 2 0 1
1077 2025-02-04 1 529 8 19 35 0 0 0 1 83 101 0 2 0 1
1076 2025-02-03 1 543 8 20 35 0 0 0 1 86 99 0 2 0 1
1075 2025-02-02 1 558 8 20 34 0 0 0 1 85 99 0 2 0 1
1074 2025-02-01 1 565 8 20 33 0 0 0 1 85 96 0 2 0 1
1073 2025-01-31 1 557 8 20 31 0 0 0 1 83 94 0 2 0 1
1072 2025-01-30 1 555 7 20 30 0 0 0 1 82 94 0 2 0 1
1071 2025-01-29 1 542 7 19 29 0 0 0 1 81 92 0 2 0 1
1070 2025-01-28 1 554 7 20 30 0 0 0 1 80 91 0 2 0 1
1069 2025-01-27 1 569 7 20 31 0 0 0 1 79 93 0 2 0 1
1068 2025-01-26 1 581 7 20 31 0 0 0 1 77 93 0 2 0 1
1067 2025-01-25 1 589 7 20 31 0 0 0 1 75 93 0 2 0 1
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