Loss Statistics

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2024 is key: the economics
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Refineries & Disruptions
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New Artillery: September 24
Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
1215 2025-06-22 1 010 1 5 58 2 0 0 0 138 127 0 0 0 0
1214 2025-06-21 1 100 9 2 39 0 0 0 0 157 117 0 0 0 7
1213 2025-06-20 1 060 1 5 19 0 0 0 0 123 116 0 0 0 0
1212 2025-06-19 1 090 3 7 46 1 0 0 1 70 81 0 2 0 0
1211 2025-06-18 1 080 4 8 63 0 0 0 0 64 108 0 2 0 23
1210 2025-06-17 1 040 7 31 37 1 0 0 0 184 137 0 0 0 23
1209 2025-06-16 1 060 1 3 20 1 0 0 0 177 79 0 0 0 0
1208 2025-06-15 1 200 2 7 18 0 0 0 1 95 79 0 1 0 9
1207 2025-06-14 1 170 0 6 33 1 0 0 1 123 89 0 1 0 0
1206 2025-06-13 1 130 3 7 52 1 0 0 1 79 107 0 0 0 0
1205 2025-06-12 1 220 1 5 42 3 0 0 0 72 106 0 0 0 0
1204 2025-06-11 1 140 6 3 47 0 0 0 1 138 136 0 0 0 0
1203 2025-06-10 1 120 8 15 34 1 0 0 0 240 124 0 2 0 7
1202 2025-06-09 960 4 9 48 1 2 0 0 239 107 0 1 0 15
1201 2025-06-08 970 4 11 42 1 0 0 0 167 123 0 0 0 0
1200 2025-06-07 1 120 7 11 42 0 1 0 2 158 146 0 3 0 7
1199 2025-06-06 1 120 15 52 56 4 0 1 1 300 166 0 1 0 37
1198 2025-06-05 1 160 2 5 44 0 0 0 3 174 101 0 0 0 0
1197 2025-06-04 930 3 2 39 0 0 0 0 95 82 0 2 0 0
1196 2025-06-03 1 020 3 7 88 0 29 0 0 176 123 0 2 0 0
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days date . .
1215 2025-06-22 1 012 500 10 962 22 841 29 355 1 428 0 0 1 170 41 719 52 637 0 3 922 0 62
1214 2025-06-21 1 011 490 10 961 22 836 29 297 1 426 0 0 1 170 41 581 52 510 0 3 922 0 62
1213 2025-06-20 1 010 390 10 952 22 834 29 258 1 426 0 0 1 170 41 424 52 393 0 3 922 0 55
1212 2025-06-19 1 009 330 10 951 22 829 29 239 1 426 0 0 1 170 41 301 52 277 0 3 922 0 55
1211 2025-06-18 1 008 240 10 948 22 822 29 193 1 425 0 0 1 169 41 231 52 196 0 3 920 0 55
1210 2025-06-17 1 007 160 10 944 22 814 29 130 1 425 0 0 1 169 41 167 52 088 0 3 918 0 32
1209 2025-06-16 1 006 120 10 937 22 783 29 093 1 424 0 0 1 169 40 983 51 951 0 3 918 0 9
1208 2025-06-15 1 005 060 10 936 22 780 29 073 1 423 0 0 1 169 40 806 51 872 0 3 918 0 9
1207 2025-06-14 1 003 860 10 934 22 773 29 055 1 423 0 0 1 168 40 711 51 793 0 3 917 0 0
1206 2025-06-13 1 002 690 10 934 22 767 29 022 1 422 0 0 1 167 40 588 51 704 0 3 916 0 0
1205 2025-06-12 1 001 560 10 931 22 760 28 970 1 421 0 0 1 166 40 509 51 597 0 3 916 0 0
1204 2025-06-11 1 000 340 10 930 22 755 28 928 1 418 0 0 1 166 40 437 51 491 0 3 916 0 0
1203 2025-06-10 999 200 10 924 22 752 28 881 1 418 0 0 1 165 40 299 51 355 0 3 916 0 0
1202 2025-06-09 996 100 10 916 22 737 28 847 1 417 94 2 1 165 40 059 51 231 0 3 914 0 145
1201 2025-06-08 995 140 10 912 22 728 28 799 1 416 92 2 1 165 39 820 51 124 0 3 913 0 130
1200 2025-06-07 994 170 10 908 22 717 28 757 1 415 92 2 1 165 39 653 51 001 0 3 913 0 130
1199 2025-06-06 993 050 10 901 22 706 28 715 1 415 91 2 1 163 39 495 50 855 0 3 910 0 123
1198 2025-06-05 991 930 10 886 22 654 28 659 1 411 91 1 1 162 39 195 50 689 0 3 909 0 86
1197 2025-06-04 990 770 10 884 22 649 28 615 1 411 91 1 1 159 39 021 50 588 0 3 909 0 86
1196 2025-06-03 989 840 10 881 22 647 28 576 1 411 91 1 1 159 38 926 50 506 0 3 907 0 86
days date . .
1215 2025-06-22 831.7 9.0 18.8 24.2 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 34.3 43.3 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.6
1214 2025-06-21 831.6 9.0 18.8 24.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 34.2 43.2 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.6
1213 2025-06-20 831.3 9.0 18.8 24.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 34.1 43.1 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.6
1212 2025-06-19 831.1 9.0 18.8 24.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 34.1 43.1 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.6
1211 2025-06-18 830.9 9.0 18.8 24.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 34.0 43.0 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.6
1210 2025-06-17 830.7 9.0 18.9 24.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 34.0 43.0 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.5
1209 2025-06-16 830.6 9.0 18.8 24.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 33.9 42.9 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.5
1208 2025-06-15 830.4 9.1 18.9 24.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 33.8 42.9 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.5
1207 2025-06-14 830.1 9.1 18.9 24.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 33.7 42.8 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.5
1206 2025-06-13 829.8 9.1 18.9 24.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 33.7 42.8 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.5
1205 2025-06-12 829.5 9.1 18.9 24.0 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 33.6 42.7 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.5
1204 2025-06-11 829.2 9.1 18.9 24.0 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 33.6 42.7 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.5
1203 2025-06-10 828.9 9.1 18.9 24.0 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 33.5 42.6 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.5
1202 2025-06-09 828.7 9.1 18.9 24.0 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 33.3 42.6 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.5
1201 2025-06-08 828.6 9.1 18.9 24.0 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 33.2 42.5 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1200 2025-06-07 828.5 9.1 18.9 24.0 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 33.0 42.4 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1199 2025-06-06 828.2 9.1 18.9 23.9 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 32.9 42.3 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1198 2025-06-05 828.0 9.1 18.9 23.9 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 32.7 42.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1197 2025-06-04 827.7 9.1 18.9 23.9 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 32.6 42.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
1196 2025-06-03 827.6 9.1 18.9 23.9 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 32.5 42.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.5
days date . .
1215 2025-06-22 178.3 -8.0 -13.8 33.8 0.8 -1.0 103.7 83.7 -3.2 -2.6
1214 2025-06-21 268.4 0.0 -16.8 14.9 -1.2 -1.0 122.8 73.8 -3.2 4.4
1213 2025-06-20 228.7 -8.0 -13.8 -5.1 -1.2 -1.0 88.9 72.9 -3.2 -2.6
1212 2025-06-19 258.9 -6.0 -11.8 21.9 -0.2 0.0 35.9 37.9 -1.2 -2.6
1211 2025-06-18 249.1 -5.0 -10.8 38.9 -1.2 -1.0 30.0 65.0 -1.2 20.4
1210 2025-06-17 209.3 -2.0 12.1 12.9 -0.2 -1.0 150.0 94.0 -3.2 20.5
1209 2025-06-16 229.4 -8.0 -15.8 -4.1 -0.2 -1.0 143.1 36.1 -3.2 -2.5
1208 2025-06-15 369.6 -7.1 -11.9 -6.1 -1.2 0.0 61.2 36.1 -2.2 6.5
1207 2025-06-14 339.9 -9.1 -12.9 8.9 -0.2 0.0 89.3 46.2 -2.2 -2.5
1206 2025-06-13 300.2 -6.1 -11.9 27.9 -0.2 0.0 45.3 64.2 -3.2 -2.5
1205 2025-06-12 390.5 -8.1 -13.9 18.0 1.8 -1.0 38.4 63.3 -3.2 -2.5
1204 2025-06-11 310.8 -3.1 -15.9 23.0 -1.2 0.0 104.4 93.3 -3.2 -2.5
1203 2025-06-10 291.1 -1.1 -3.9 10.0 -0.2 -1.0 206.5 81.4 -1.2 4.5
1202 2025-06-09 131.3 -5.1 -9.9 24.0 -0.2 -1.0 205.7 64.4 -2.2 12.5
1201 2025-06-08 141.4 -5.1 -7.9 18.0 -0.2 -1.0 133.8 80.5 -3.3 -2.5
1200 2025-06-07 291.5 -2.1 -7.9 18.0 -1.2 1.0 125.0 103.6 -0.3 4.5
1199 2025-06-06 291.8 5.9 33.1 32.1 2.8 -0.4 0.7 0.0 267.1 123.7 -0.1 -2.3 0.0 34.5
1198 2025-06-05 332.0 -7.1 -13.9 20.1 -1.2 2.0 141.3 58.8 -3.3 -2.5
1197 2025-06-04 102.3 -6.1 -16.9 15.1 -1.2 -1.0 62.4 39.8 -1.3 -2.5
1196 2025-06-03 192.4 -6.1 -11.9 64.1 -1.2 -1.0 143.5 80.8 -1.3 -2.5
days date . .
1215 2025-06-22 1 063 4 9 40 1 0 0 0 130 109 0 1 0 8
1214 2025-06-21 1 090 4 9 35 0 0 0 0 124 102 0 1 0 9
1213 2025-06-20 1 100 3 10 34 1 0 0 0 119 98 0 1 0 8
1212 2025-06-19 1 110 3 10 38 1 0 0 1 113 97 0 1 0 8
1211 2025-06-18 1 129 3 10 38 1 0 0 0 113 101 0 1 0 8
1210 2025-06-17 1 137 3 9 36 1 0 0 1 124 105 0 0 0 5
1209 2025-06-16 1 149 3 7 35 1 0 0 1 132 103 0 1 0 2
1208 2025-06-15 1 134 3 7 39 1 0 0 1 141 107 0 1 0 4
1207 2025-06-14 1 101 4 8 43 1 0 0 0 151 113 0 1 0 3
1206 2025-06-13 1 094 5 9 44 1 0 0 1 156 121 0 1 0 4
1205 2025-06-12 1 093 6 15 44 1 0 0 1 188 130 0 1 0 9
1204 2025-06-11 1 084 7 15 45 1 0 0 1 202 129 0 1 0 9
1203 2025-06-10 1 054 6 15 44 1 0 0 1 196 121 0 1 0 9
1202 2025-06-09 1 040 5 14 51 1 5 0 1 187 121 0 1 0 8
1201 2025-06-08 1 060 6 14 51 1 6 0 1 171 127 0 1 0 6
1200 2025-06-07 1 084 6 13 52 1 6 0 1 184 129 0 1 0 7
1199 2025-06-06 1 100 5 12 54 1 6 0 1 183 126 0 1 0 6
1198 2025-06-05 1 119 3 5 53 1 6 0 1 160 118 0 1 0 1
1197 2025-06-04 1 116 3 5 52 1 6 0 1 146 114 0 1 0 1
1196 2025-06-03 1 133 3 5 51 1 6 0 1 144 110 0 1 0 1
days date . .
1215 2025-06-22 1 089 4 8 43 1 1 0 1 151 107 0 1 0 7
1214 2025-06-21 1 093 4 10 42 1 1 0 1 154 111 0 1 0 7
1213 2025-06-20 1 091 4 10 42 1 1 0 1 154 112 0 1 0 7
1212 2025-06-19 1 085 4 10 43 1 1 0 1 154 111 0 1 0 7
1211 2025-06-18 1 081 4 10 42 1 1 0 1 154 111 0 1 0 7
1210 2025-06-17 1 080 4 9 42 1 1 0 1 155 111 0 1 0 6
1209 2025-06-16 1 080 4 9 42 1 1 0 1 153 109 0 1 0 5
1208 2025-06-15 1 082 4 9 42 1 1 0 1 151 110 0 1 0 5
1207 2025-06-14 1 072 4 9 43 1 1 0 1 153 110 0 1 0 5
1206 2025-06-13 1 070 4 9 43 1 1 0 1 153 113 0 1 0 5
1205 2025-06-12 1 073 4 10 43 1 1 0 1 155 115 0 1 0 5
1204 2025-06-11 1 074 4 10 43 1 1 0 1 155 115 0 1 0 5
1203 2025-06-10 1 071 4 10 43 1 1 0 1 154 115 0 1 0 5
1202 2025-06-09 1 073 4 11 44 1 1 0 1 151 117 0 1 0 5
1201 2025-06-08 1 085 4 11 43 1 1 0 1 145 117 0 1 0 4
1200 2025-06-07 1 096 4 11 43 1 1 0 1 140 117 0 1 0 4
1199 2025-06-06 1 102 4 10 43 1 1 0 1 136 116 0 1 0 4
1198 2025-06-05 1 105 4 9 43 1 1 0 1 131 114 0 1 0 3
1197 2025-06-04 1 108 4 9 44 1 1 0 1 129 115 0 1 0 3
1196 2025-06-03 1 125 4 9 45 1 1 0 1 131 116 0 1 0 3
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