Loss Statistics

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Updated Forecast And Scenarios: artillery
Forecast And Scenarios: tanks
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   Tanks
feb 2022: active, in storage, (- oryx visually confirmed destroyed @ 2024-01-29, oryx as 70% of confirmed)
    source
    other conservative estimates added
  • T-55 < 2000 storage (-2, -3)
  • T-62 2000 storage (-97, -139)
  • T-64 800 storage (-85, -121)
  • T-72 2000 active, 8000 storage (-1346, -1922)
  • T-80 2000 active, 5000 storage (-741, -1058)
  • T-90 350 active, 600 storage (-68, -97)
  • T-14 20 testing
  • unknown ( -304, -434 )
  • Max: 22 750, active: 4 350, storage: 18 400, (-2643, -3775)
Storage evaluations at 30 Jan 2024
  • Starting stocks. Wikipedia ∑ above: 18 400, IISS: 17 500, IISS 2023 report: 5000 in storage (excl T-55 & T-62), IAR: 7000 in storage (1700 < T-64)
  • monthly new or refurbished capacity: 33
  • Losses documented: 2774, oryx figure as 70% of losses: 3775, UA Mod at 29 Jan 24 -20%: 5300, Oryx figure as % of 5300: 52%
  • in essence almost all, or more that, active stock is destroyed. Only new/refurbished can go to battle.
  • Storage appears to be between 5000 and 7000, including T-62 and T-55. The increasing amount of videos with T-62s indicates refurbishments cannot keep pace with losses.
  • reliance on storage items, losses faster than refurbishments, falling back on older inventory... sort of explains the reliance on meat waves and KAB usage.
   Artillery
  • 2B11 2S12 Sani Active: ≈636 Reserve: 1,000
  • 2B14 Podnos Active: ≈396 Reserve: 3,000
Wikipedia data, followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2B16 Nona-K 100 (-12)
  • D-20 1075 (-19) [4933 -> 3464]
  • D-30 D-1 M-30 [3722 -> 1583]
  • MT-12 [1398 -> 627]
  • 2A18 D-30 Active: 564 Reserve: ≈ 4,000 (-80)
  • 2A29 MT-12 Rapira 526 (-19)
  • 2A36 Giatsint (Hyacinth)-B Active: ≈141 Reserve: 1,000 (-43) [922 -> 221]
  • 2A65 Msta-B Active: 250 Reserve: 600 (-112) [571 -> 242]
  • max field artillery: 8256 reserve: 5600 (-285) [14631 -> 6785 or -54%]
Wikipedia data followed by Covert Cabal data of pieces at storage bases [early 2022 -> Feb 1 2024]
  • 2S1 Gvozdika (Carnation) Active: 230 Reserve: 1700 (-83) [1689 -> 1377]
  • 2S3 Akatsiya (Acacia) Active: 800 Reserve: 800 (-199) [847 -> 512]
  • 2S4 Tyulpan (Tulip) Active: 60 Reserve: 350 (-23) [403 -> 193]
  • 2S5 Giatsint-S (Hyacinth) Active: 114 Reserve: 850 (-47) [600 -> 351]
  • 2S7 Pion (Peonia) Active: 100 Reserve: 260 (-18) [236 -> 104]
  • 2S19 Msta-S, 2S19M1, and 2S19M2 Msta-SM2 820 (-181) [115 -> 130]
  • 2S23 Nona-SVK 42 (-40)
  • 2S34 Chosta <50 (-2)
  • 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV ≈12 (unknown -26)
  • Max SP artillery: 6 188, reserve: 3 960, (-865) [4450 -> 2916 or -35%]
  • field artillery has been halved, based on Covert Cabal data. It appears a lot more have been lost than estimated/seen; assumption is losses are hard to document. Remaining stock will tend to have degraded quality. Crazy numbers still, but not as overwhelming
  • Numbers confirm ru is running on storage items. Adding pieces in transit brings one to discount the max available self-propelled at max 3500
  • Looking at 30-day averages, ru has been putting in harm's way a lot of artillery, enough to wipe out self-propelled stock entirely in 4 months. ru cannot sustain this
  • At the start, fuel tanks were counted separately, as were 4 mobile SRBM.
  • The former were folded into 'vehicles', the latter into 'special equipment'.
  • priorities/focus changed...
'Average' is the invention of a mathematician. Put a man on a table, head in a freezer, feet in an oven, at average temperature, he is comfortable.
Thus a proverbial grain of salt needs applying.
  • doing better/worse than usual/average ∆ µ
  • emerging trend last-7-day average: ∆ 7
  • long-lasting trend 30-day average: ∆ 30
the deltas (differences) and calculations are relative to overall length of the conflict launched by russia on 02-24-2022 (not recalculated for a chosen time frame)
Please rotate your device to view all the data
days date . .
936 2024-09-16 1 020 2 6 6 1 0 0 0 66 27 0 1 0 0
935 2024-09-15 1 060 3 8 14 1 0 0 0 29 28 0 6 0 0
934 2024-09-14 1 170 6 20 23 0 0 0 1 85 53 0 0 0 1
933 2024-09-13 1 210 3 40 25 1 0 0 1 36 71 0 13 0 0
932 2024-09-12 1 220 18 48 52 1 0 0 0 80 79 0 10 0 0
931 2024-09-11 1 270 11 17 73 2 1 0 2 43 93 0 2 0 0
930 2024-09-10 1 140 2 13 56 2 0 0 1 57 58 0 6 0 0
929 2024-09-09 1 380 1 19 50 0 0 0 0 68 4 0 4 0 0
928 2024-09-08 1 150 3 9 26 0 0 0 0 33 44 0 2 0 0
927 2024-09-07 1 270 4 19 30 2 0 0 0 80 47 0 10 0 0
926 2024-09-06 1 270 1 0 29 0 0 0 1 52 55 0 0 0 1
925 2024-09-05 1 170 7 9 20 1 0 0 1 74 72 0 13 0 0
924 2024-09-04 1 200 6 21 31 0 0 0 0 42 37 0 10 0 0
923 2024-09-03 1 390 7 27 30 0 0 0 0 43 35 0 12 0 0
922 2024-09-02 1 360 10 35 18 0 0 0 0 36 47 0 9 0 21
921 2024-09-01 1 300 9 26 10 1 0 0 0 30 44 0 2 0 0
920 2024-08-31 1 350 10 24 22 0 0 0 0 36 56 0 14 0 0
919 2024-08-30 1 360 8 14 42 1 0 0 0 18 62 0 10 0 1
918 2024-08-29 1 200 3 23 23 1 0 0 1 84 57 0 2 0 0
917 2024-08-28 1 200 3 18 27 0 0 0 1 21 52 0 15 0 3
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days date . .
936 2024-09-16 636 040 8 685 17 072 18 086 1 196 367 328 948 15 322 24 631 77 3 090 29 2 529
935 2024-09-15 635 020 8 683 17 066 18 080 1 195 367 328 948 15 256 24 604 77 3 089 29 2 529
934 2024-09-14 633 960 8 680 17 058 18 066 1 194 367 328 948 15 227 24 576 77 3 083 29 2 529
933 2024-09-13 632 790 8 674 17 038 18 043 1 194 367 328 947 15 142 24 523 77 3 083 29 2 528
932 2024-09-12 631 580 8 671 16 998 18 018 1 193 367 328 946 15 106 24 452 77 3 070 29 2 528
931 2024-09-11 630 360 8 653 16 950 17 966 1 192 367 328 946 15 026 24 373 77 3 060 29 2 528
930 2024-09-10 629 090 8 642 16 933 17 893 1 190 366 328 944 14 983 24 280 77 3 058 29 2 528
929 2024-09-09 627 950 8 640 16 920 17 837 1 188 366 328 943 14 926 24 222 77 3 052 29 2 528
928 2024-09-08 626 570 8 639 16 901 17 787 1 188 366 328 943 14 858 24 218 77 3 048 29 2 528
927 2024-09-07 625 420 8 636 16 892 17 761 1 188 366 328 943 14 825 24 174 77 3 046 29 2 528
926 2024-09-06 624 150 8 632 16 873 17 731 1 186 366 328 943 14 745 24 127 77 3 036 29 2 528
925 2024-09-05 622 880 8 631 16 873 17 702 1 186 366 328 942 14 693 24 072 77 3 036 29 2 527
924 2024-09-04 621 710 8 624 16 864 17 682 1 185 366 328 941 14 619 24 000 77 3 023 29 2 527
923 2024-09-03 620 510 8 618 16 843 17 651 1 185 366 328 941 14 577 23 963 77 3 013 29 2 527
922 2024-09-02 619 120 8 611 16 816 17 621 1 185 366 328 941 14 534 23 928 77 3 001 29 2 527
921 2024-09-01 617 760 8 601 16 781 17 603 1 185 366 328 941 14 498 23 881 77 2 992 29 2 506
920 2024-08-31 616 460 8 592 16 755 17 593 1 184 366 328 941 14 468 23 837 77 2 990 29 2 506
919 2024-08-30 615 110 8 582 16 731 17 571 1 184 366 328 941 14 432 23 781 77 2 976 29 2 506
918 2024-08-29 613 750 8 574 16 717 17 529 1 183 366 328 941 14 414 23 719 77 2 966 29 2 505
917 2024-08-28 612 550 8 571 16 694 17 506 1 182 366 328 940 14 330 23 662 77 2 964 29 2 505
days date . .
936 2024-09-16 679.5 9.3 18.2 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.3 26.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
935 2024-09-15 679.2 9.3 18.3 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.3 26.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
934 2024-09-14 678.8 9.3 18.3 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.3 26.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
933 2024-09-13 678.2 9.3 18.3 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.2 26.2 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
932 2024-09-12 677.7 9.3 18.2 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.2 26.1 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
931 2024-09-11 677.1 9.3 18.2 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.1 26.1 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
930 2024-09-10 676.4 9.3 18.2 19.2 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.1 26.0 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
929 2024-09-09 675.9 9.3 18.2 19.2 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.0 26.0 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
928 2024-09-08 675.2 9.3 18.2 19.2 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.0 26.0 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
927 2024-09-07 674.7 9.3 18.2 19.2 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 16.0 26.0 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
926 2024-09-06 674.0 9.3 18.2 19.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 15.9 26.0 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
925 2024-09-05 673.4 9.3 18.2 19.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 15.9 25.9 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
924 2024-09-04 672.8 9.3 18.3 19.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 15.8 25.9 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
923 2024-09-03 672.3 9.3 18.2 19.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 15.8 25.9 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
922 2024-09-02 671.5 9.3 18.2 19.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 15.7 25.9 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
921 2024-09-01 670.7 9.3 18.2 19.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 15.7 25.8 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
920 2024-08-31 670.1 9.3 18.2 19.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 15.7 25.8 0.1 3.3 0.0 2.7
919 2024-08-30 669.3 9.3 18.2 19.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 15.7 25.8 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.7
918 2024-08-29 668.6 9.3 18.2 19.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 15.7 25.7 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.7
917 2024-08-28 668.0 9.3 18.2 19.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 15.6 25.7 0.1 3.2 0.0 2.7
days date . .
936 2024-09-16 340.5 -7.3 -12.2 -13.3 -0.3 -1.0 49.7 0.8 -2.3 -2.7
935 2024-09-15 380.8 -6.3 -10.3 -5.3 -0.3 -1.0 12.7 1.8 2.7 -2.7
934 2024-09-14 491.2 -3.3 1.7 3.7 -1.3 0.0 68.7 26.8 -3.3 -1.7
933 2024-09-13 531.8 -6.3 21.7 5.7 -0.3 0.0 19.8 44.8 9.7 -2.7
932 2024-09-12 542.3 8.7 29.8 32.7 -0.3 -1.0 63.8 52.9 6.7 -2.7
931 2024-09-11 592.9 1.7 -1.2 53.7 0.7 1.0 26.9 66.9 -1.3 -2.7
930 2024-09-10 463.6 -7.3 -5.2 36.8 0.7 0.0 40.9 32.0 2.7 -2.7
929 2024-09-09 704.1 -8.3 0.8 30.8 -1.3 -1.0 52.0 -22.0 0.7 -2.7
928 2024-09-08 474.8 -6.3 -9.2 6.8 -1.3 -1.0 17.0 18.0 -1.3 -2.7
927 2024-09-07 595.3 -5.3 0.8 10.8 0.7 -1.0 64.0 21.0 6.7 -2.7
926 2024-09-06 596.0 -8.3 -18.2 9.9 -1.3 0.0 36.1 29.0 -3.3 -1.7
925 2024-09-05 496.6 -2.3 -9.2 0.9 -0.3 0.0 58.1 46.1 9.7 -2.7
924 2024-09-04 527.2 -3.3 2.7 11.9 -1.3 -1.0 26.2 11.1 6.7 -2.7
923 2024-09-03 717.7 -2.3 8.8 10.9 -1.3 -1.0 27.2 9.1 8.7 -2.7
922 2024-09-02 688.5 0.7 16.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.0 20.3 21.1 5.7 18.3
921 2024-09-01 629.3 -0.3 7.8 -9.1 -0.3 -1.0 14.3 18.2 -1.3 -2.7
920 2024-08-31 679.9 0.7 5.8 2.9 -1.3 -1.0 20.3 30.2 10.7 -2.7
919 2024-08-30 690.7 -1.3 -4.2 22.9 -0.3 -1.0 2.3 36.2 6.8 -1.7
918 2024-08-29 531.4 -6.3 4.8 3.9 -0.3 0.0 68.3 31.3 -1.2 -2.7
917 2024-08-28 532.0 -6.3 -0.2 7.9 -1.3 0.0 5.4 26.3 11.8 0.3
days date . .
936 2024-09-16 1 156 6 22 36 1 0 0 1 57 58 0 5 0 0
935 2024-09-15 1 207 6 24 42 1 0 0 1 57 55 0 6 0 0
934 2024-09-14 1 220 6 24 44 1 0 0 1 57 57 0 5 0 0
933 2024-09-13 1 234 6 24 45 1 0 0 1 57 57 0 7 0 0
932 2024-09-12 1 243 6 18 45 1 0 0 1 59 54 0 5 0 0
931 2024-09-11 1 236 4 12 41 1 0 0 1 58 53 0 5 0 0
930 2024-09-10 1 226 3 13 35 1 0 0 0 58 45 0 6 0 0
929 2024-09-09 1 261 4 15 31 0 0 0 0 56 42 0 7 0 0
928 2024-09-08 1 259 5 17 26 0 0 0 0 51 48 0 8 0 3
927 2024-09-07 1 280 6 20 24 1 0 0 0 51 48 0 8 0 3
926 2024-09-06 1 291 7 20 23 0 0 0 0 45 49 0 9 0 3
925 2024-09-05 1 304 8 22 25 0 0 0 0 40 50 0 10 0 3
924 2024-09-04 1 309 8 24 25 0 0 0 0 41 48 0 8 0 3
923 2024-09-03 1 309 7 24 25 0 0 0 0 38 50 0 9 0 4
922 2024-09-02 1 266 7 22 24 1 0 0 0 46 51 0 8 0 4
921 2024-09-01 1 254 7 20 29 1 0 0 0 58 53 0 7 0 16
920 2024-08-31 1 231 6 18 34 1 0 0 1 59 58 0 9 0 16
919 2024-08-30 1 209 6 17 38 1 0 0 1 58 63 0 9 0 16
918 2024-08-29 1 180 6 18 38 1 0 0 1 61 62 0 8 0 16
917 2024-08-28 1 179 6 19 41 1 0 0 1 53 61 0 9 0 16
days date . .
936 2024-09-16 1 218 6 20 36 1 0 0 1 54 56 0 8 0 5
935 2024-09-15 1 223 6 20 38 1 0 0 1 53 58 0 8 0 5
934 2024-09-14 1 228 6 20 39 1 0 0 1 54 59 0 9 0 5
933 2024-09-13 1 234 6 21 41 1 0 0 1 53 60 0 9 0 5
932 2024-09-12 1 234 7 20 41 1 0 0 1 53 60 0 9 0 5
931 2024-09-11 1 235 7 19 42 1 0 0 1 52 60 0 9 0 5
930 2024-09-10 1 231 6 19 40 1 0 0 1 52 58 0 9 0 5
929 2024-09-09 1 229 6 19 41 1 0 0 1 52 59 0 8 0 5
928 2024-09-08 1 224 7 19 41 1 0 0 1 51 61 0 9 0 5
927 2024-09-07 1 224 7 19 42 1 0 0 1 51 62 0 9 0 5
926 2024-09-06 1 216 7 18 43 1 0 0 1 50 64 0 9 0 5
925 2024-09-05 1 212 7 19 43 1 0 0 1 51 64 0 9 0 5
924 2024-09-04 1 214 7 19 45 1 0 0 1 50 64 0 10 0 5
923 2024-09-03 1 209 7 19 45 1 0 0 1 50 64 0 9 0 5
922 2024-09-02 1 202 7 19 46 1 0 0 1 49 66 0 9 0 5
921 2024-09-01 1 195 7 18 48 1 0 0 1 49 67 0 9 0 4
920 2024-08-31 1 190 6 18 49 1 0 0 1 50 67 0 9 0 5
919 2024-08-30 1 182 6 18 50 1 0 0 1 50 67 0 9 0 5
918 2024-08-29 1 182 6 19 50 1 0 0 1 53 67 0 9 0 5
917 2024-08-28 1 178 6 19 50 1 0 0 1 51 67 0 9 0 5
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